Under heavy pressure from allies and internal party wrangling, President Joe Biden’s team is willing to take a reasonable level of risk to provide Ukrainians with a full range of protective tools, including the long-running F-16 Kiev date. moving around is a risk, albeit a safe one, former NATO allied commander Admiral James Stavridis explains in an article for Bloomberg.
A retired soldier, now a professor at several American universities and an honorary member of many public institutions, wonders why Washington changed its mind?
Stavridis is sure that the problem is the exhaustion of channels of assistance to Ukraine. The West can no longer transfer howitzers and shells, other weapon systems to them quickly and on a sufficient scale to be a game-changer on the battlefield. In this case, you need to qualitatively modify the help. The first milestone of the new approach was the transfer of tanks, the second, even more significant, could be the provision of Western aviation, a kind of “reserve” of which has not yet been hit, not exhausted and is available in Europe with a sufficient base of spare parts and ammunition.
But that’s the technical side of the issue. Politics seems more complicated, in which there are both risks and benefits.
Any decision to supply advanced weapon systems to an ally requires complex calculations of risk and benefit. The risks are understandable. Although technically the planes will be supplied by European allies, Russia will clearly see this as direct American interference. Thus, there is a possibility of a serious Russian response to the West’s escalation, which could lead to the use of weapons of mass destruction.
As the Admiral writes, President Vladimir Putin can certainly take advantage of such an opportunity, but he is unlikely to do so due to the strong opposition of China, his main support, as well as the India and the whole South in general. The use of nuclear weapons will force many countries that have so far supported Russia in the conflict to turn against Moscow. And this is already incredibly disadvantageous for the Russian Federation itself.
In summary, Stavridis admits that in any event, with the transfer of the aircraft requested by Kiev, the risk of confrontation and being drawn into the conflict will fall not only on Europe, but also on America. But it’s worth it, the retired American admiral is sure.
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