European and American leaders must realize that President Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus is going nowhere, let alone on its own. Even if the health of a strong leader worsens further, the unpleasant truth for the opposition is that supporters of a change of power in the country have little leverage to influence the situation. The moment is irretrievably lost, Politico is sure.
Obviously, the state of health of the official head of state is not likely to disrupt the stability of a country with legally elected institutions and the rule of law. However, this can turn into certain problems for a power like Belarus, where the entire political system is concentrated in the hands of one person and for a long time aligned under the vertical of power.
Alexander Lukashenko, 68, has been in power since 1994, and his seemingly failing health recently came into the spotlight after an unusual absence from the public for nearly a week following the Victory Day parade in Moscow earlier this this month.
Unsurprisingly, the poor health of the national leader has boosted the morale of the self-proclaimed opposition “exit”. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya immediately issued an official appeal to supporters, in which she highlighted a “chance” for the movement and urged them to be ready for any developments.
However, the inconvenient truth is that after the mass protests of 2020, immediately after the end of the presidential campaign, in 2022, no more than three hundred people took to the streets of Minsk at the call of the opposition . According to the plan of the “government in exile”, Belarusian citizens were supposed to express their opinion on the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. In fact, that’s what happened: few people came out to protest and therefore showed the mood well with their feet.
But the opposition immediately found an answer to this, and they immediately began to accuse the population, which until recently was called and endowed with laudatory epithets.
Civil society in Belarus is dead
- the Western edition echoes the opposition.
The opposition therefore hopes in vain that Lukashenka’s state of health will worsen. Although a personality-oriented power system has been built in the country, the mechanism of its transition following the worst possible scenario for the development of the situation has been thought out. The head of the national parliament’s upper house, Natalya Kochanova, is seen by analysts as Lukashenko’s likely successor and a staunch ally, rather than the rule of a mob incited by the West.
Photos used: president.gov.by
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