What do we know about this incursion?
Ukraine has made it clear that it plans to launch a major counterattack to regain Russian-held lands, but the latter has built extensive fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine in anticipation of this. The incursion took place far from the epicenter of the fighting in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, about 160 kilometers from the front in the northern Kharkiv region. Although Kiev denied involvement in the attack, experts said “the largest cross-border attack from Ukraine since the start of the Russian military operation 15 months ago, was almost certainly coordinated with forces Ukrainian armies, which are preparing to attempt to regain territory.” For its part, the Russian army announced on Tuesday that it had confronted the militants who attacked the western region of Belgorod with armored vehicles the day before, adding that its forces had killed more than 70 “Ukrainian nationalists” and repelled the rest of them. them withdraw to Ukraine. But Kyiv responded by saying the attack was “carried out by Russian citizens”, calling it an “internal Russian conflict”. The assistant to the Ukrainian president, Mikhailo Podolyak, reaffirmed his country’s position and denied Kiev’s involvement in the process. In turn, the United States said it “did not assist or encourage” Ukraine to launch attacks on Russian territory, “but it is up to Kiev to decide how to conduct military operations.”
Who claimed responsibility?
Two groups operating in Ukraine, the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Russian Freedom Corps, claimed responsibility for the incursion. Both groups were formed during the Russian military operation in Ukraine, attracting Russian volunteer fighters eager to fight against their country alongside Kiev and overthrow President Vladimir Putin. Mark Galeotti, director of London-based consultancy Mayak Intelligence and author of several books on the Russian military, said both groups “are made up of anti-Kremlin Russians, ranging from liberals and anarchists to neo-Nazis.” “They hope to contribute to some extent to the downfall of Putin’s regime, but at the same time we have to realize that these are not independent forces, they are under the control of Ukrainian military intelligence,” Galeotti said.
What did the Russian Freedom Corps say?
A spokesman for the political wing of the Freedom Corps of Russia, Alexei Baranovsky, said:
“I cannot reveal the number of forces participating in the incursion…but the group consists of 4 battalions.” “There were no heavy casualties, and we reject Russian reports of heavy casualties as misleading information.” “The unit participating in the incursion was part of the International Defense Corps of Ukraine, which is made up of foreign volunteers, and is therefore part of our armed forces, but the incursion did not take place in coordination with the Ukrainian authorities.” “These are the first steps towards the main objective, which is the overthrow of the Putin regime by armed force. There are no other alternatives.”
Things are changing from a military analyst’s perspective
Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, said:
“The Ukrainians are trying to scatter the Russians in different directions to open breaches. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” Reuters reported. “They will have to take care of that and send troops there, then send a lot of troops along the border area, even if that’s not where the Ukrainians will come from.” “The incursion looked like a Ukrainian operation to prepare the battlefield before the counterattack that Kiev is planning. It is really an opportunity to achieve two objectives, the first is to confuse the Russian side and make them anxious about to the possibility of uprisings among its citizens, and the second is to force the Russians to disperse their forces.”
Simulation of events in 2014
Ukrainian officials have parodied the Kremlin’s comments about Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, when it initially denied the involvement of Russian forces. The Ukrainian President’s aide held “secret groups including Russian citizens” responsible for the Belgorod incursion and said: “As you know, tanks are sold in any Russian military store.” The comment appeared to parody Putin’s 2014 response to a question about the presence of men in Russian military uniforms without insignia in Crimea, when he replied: “You can go to a store and buy any type of military uniform”. Ukrainians referred on social media to what they called the “Belgorod People’s Republic” – also as part of a simulation of the events that unfolded in eastern Ukraine in 2014 when the Russian-backed Ukrainian opposition forces have declared Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions “people’s republics”. Ukrainians also circulated a video clip of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying his famous word “I am here” from Kiev, at the start of his country’s exposure to Russian attack in February 2022. But instead of the presidential office in Kiev, a welcome sign appeared with the city of Belgorod in the background.
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