In its Global Economic Outlook report, the World Bank attributed the decline, saying the Middle East and North Africa region started 2023 with steady but slow growth.
He added that oil-exporting countries, which have seen high growth rates over a decade and low unemployment rates over the past year, have announced cuts in their oil production, and that Oil-importing countries faced several challenges, including high rates of inflation, with a significant slowdown in growth in 2023.
oil exporting economies
The World Bank said that with the recovery that oil-exporting countries have been enjoying weakening due to high oil prices and falling global demand, oil production growth has slowed rapidly from at the high rates recorded at the end of 2022.
According to the bank, Saudi Arabia has seen a decline in production growth from high rates in mid-2022 to 3.9% in the first quarter of 2023, supported by non-oil activities, and therefore the bank cut its growth forecast for Saudi Arabia. the economy by 1.5% to 2.2% from its previous January forecast, but it raised its forecast for 2024 by 1%, to 3.3%.
In general, the bank expects the growth rate in oil-exporting countries to slow to 2.0% in 2023, which is a significant drop from what was forecast just six months ago. , before rising to 3.2% in 2024.
oil importing economies
The bank also said oil-importing economies saw continued negative conditions through 2023, with average consumer price inflation rising to levels not seen in more than a decade in the first half of the year. ‘year.
In Egypt, the bank estimates that the country’s limited ability to obtain foreign currency and the move to a more flexible exchange rate caused the pound to lose about half its value between early 2022 and May 2023.
Rising costs, difficulties in obtaining imported inputs and slowing global demand have affected the country’s economic activity, with industrial production contracting (excluding oil) in the year ending January .
In Morocco, the bank said continued drought and high inflation rates led to weaker growth, with unemployment rates rising in March 2023 to rates that surpassed the peak reached when the crisis began. the Corona pandemic.
Consequently, the World Bank expects the growth rate of these economies to slow to 3.4% in 2023, down 0.7 percentage points from the January forecast.
In Egypt, the bank expects the growth rate to slow to 4.0% in fiscal year 2022-23, down 0.5 percentage points from January expectations. It also lowered its forecast for 2024 by 0.8% from January expectations to 4%. the tightening of public policies, sharp depreciation of the currency, rise in production costs.
In Morocco, the bank expects the growth rate to reach 2.5% in 2023, compared to 1.1% the previous year, supported by the resilience of the tourism and automotive sectors, and bad weather should delay the return of agricultural production to normal. after successive years of drought. .
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