In a bold move to shape his political destiny, President Joe Biden is wholeheartedly intertwining his fate with that of the U.S. economy, disregarding the risks of recession. This week, the White House is launching a comprehensive campaign to take credit for the nation’s post-pandemic resurgence, highlighting an economic vision so crucial to Biden’s presidential legacy that it has been coined “Bidenomics.”
This fresh and assertive messaging offensive represents Biden’s most aggressive endeavor to convince the public that the economy is undeniably thriving . It is also a significant wager that the foundation will remain intact, at least until November 2024.
Former Deputy Director of Biden’s National Economic Council, Seth Harris, emphasized their commitment, stating, “They’re going to fully embrace the economic strategy and its results. Their expectation is that a recession will not transpire.”
Every president grapples with the dilemma of how forcefully to celebrate economic progress during a period of recovery. If they boast too aggressively, voters may perceive them as out of touch. On the other hand, staying too reticent risks creating the impression that times are bleak and growing bleaker.
Biden has vowed to avoid the missteps of his predecessor, Barack Obama, who, after an ill-fated attempt to highlight positive economic news through the infamous “Recovery Summer” tour in 2010, faced public backlash. The current effort implicitly acknowledges that Biden still has work to do.
At the core of the sales pitch, which will include a presidential address on Wednesday outlining his economic case, is the definition of Bidenomics. White House aides, in preparation for the speech, have described it as a comprehensive set of policies aimed at utilizing government strength to revive and reshape the economy in support of the middle class. They point to various initiatives such as bolstering manufacturing investments, expanding high-speed internet access, and cracking down on industries that impose so-called junk fees.
While the definition may be broad, the underlying implication is clear. Biden’s political fortunes, according to his top aides, hinge on their ability to effectively convey to voters that their lives have improved significantly compared to just a few years ago, with the Biden administration deserving gratitude for the transformation.
“One Democratic national political consultant familiar with the campaign strategy stated, “Billions of dollars will be spent to showcase Joe Biden’s accomplishments. These initiatives are incredibly popular, but people are largely unaware of them.”
The decision to fully embrace Biden’s economic record comes even as the administration faces persistent challenges that could jeopardize the optimistic narrative it aims to project.
High inflation plagued the White House throughout much of the previous year, dampening public sentiment despite an otherwise encouraging economic landscape and raising doubts about Biden’s agenda. While price hikes now show signs of easing, the administration acknowledges that inflation remains unacceptably high.
Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve is currently attempting to orchestrate a soft landing to tame inflation, which will likely necessitate further interest rate hikes. Even if these measures do not push the U.S. into a painful recession, as initially predicted by economists, few believe the economy can sustain its red-hot job creation pace for a third consecutive year.
Michael Strain, the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, opined, “The strategy certainly makes sense.” He referred to Biden’s alignment with an economy characterized by rising wages and near-record-low unemployment. However, he cautioned that there is an inherent risk that these favorable conditions may not persist, acknowledging the substantial time span until 2024.
Privately, Biden’s advisers acknowledge the hazards of centering the campaign on an economy that is likely closer to its peak than its trough, especially over a year away from Election Day. Branding whatever transpires in the coming 17 months as a result of Bidenomics represents an even more significant gamble, exposing Biden to potential attacks from Republican opponents should the U.S. encounter an economic downturn.
Some Democrats view the administration’s attempt to label Biden’s economic legacy just halfway into his first term as premature and possibly an unforced error.
An anonymous Democratic strategist stated, “Bidenomics sounds like bad math. It sounds like when my parents tell me something costs $2, and it’s actually $20.”
Nonetheless, Biden and his top aides have grown increasingly confident that they can navigate around a severe recession. They draw encouragement from data showing continued job growth despite rising interest rates and cooling inflation.
Former Deputy Director of Biden’s National Economic Council, Seth Harris, explained, “I don’t think anybody in the White House would say there’s zero chance of a recession, but I think their view is that, at worst, it would be a relatively shallow and brief recession. That’s a risk they’re willing to bear due to the overall strength of the economy.”
Within the administration, officials describe a straightforward set of calculations that have contributed to the Bidenomics campaign. Presidents are inevitably defined by the state of the economy, whether they like it or not. Thus, Biden’s choice is not whether to run on his economic record but rather how to frame that record for voters.
This approach entails capitalizing on the current economic robustness to emphasize tangible areas of progress, as stated by a White House official, while simultaneously outlining Biden’s vision for building on this foundation.
In addition to Wednesday’s speech, Biden is scheduled to hold several events this week as part of the “Investing in America” blitz. Senior officials will be deployed nationwide to showcase the on-the-ground impact of the administration’s investments. The White House has also seized upon other tangible, real-world projects such as the I-95 highway repair in Philadelphia and the Commerce Department’s recent rollout of new funding to enhance broadband internet access. These endeavors aim to demonstrate the profound influence of Biden’s policies on people’s lives.
A memo written by White House senior advisers Anita Dunn and Mike Donilon this week asserts, “Better pay and other Biden Administration policies have helped put middle-class Americans in a stronger financial position than they were before the pandemic, despite the global challenge of inflation.”
[pdf-embedder url=”https://easternherald.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/memo-written-by-White-House-senior-advisers-Anita-Dunn.pdf” title=”Memo written by White House senior advisers Anita Dunn”]
The Bidenomics campaign emerged from the frustration among aides with how the economy is portrayed in cable news and the press. They argue that the media consistently exaggerates the risks of recession while downplaying the merits of Biden’s significant legislative accomplishments. They hope the new branding will prompt a reevaluation of Biden’s record, which is now more than two years into his presidency.
Meanwhile, Biden’s allies are already looking ahead to the reelection campaign. They believe that this new branding will present a favorable contrast to the record of Republican frontrunner and former president Donald Trump, as well as a rebuttal to the broader embrace of Reaganomics across the Republican presidential field.
In the immediate term, Democrats, both inside and outside the administration, concede that substantial effort is required to sell Biden’s vision to still-skeptical voters regarding the trajectory of the economy, with many remaining oblivious to the administration’s achievements.
Public confidence in the economy remains low, with a recent Pew Research Center survey ranking inflation as the public’s top concern while Biden’s overall job approval stands at a mere 35 percent.
Furthermore, the same poll indicated that Americans trust Republicans on economic matters by a wide margin compared to Democrats.
Will Marshall, president of the Democratic think tank Progressive Policy Institute, acknowledged the need for a concerted effort to bridge this deficit and deliver a forceful message that extends beyond mere rebranding. Marshall emphasized the importance of the White House effectively conveying an understanding of the public’s economic concerns and the impact of inflation on disposable income while providing a narrative of success.
Overall, the Bidenomics campaign represents a significant political gamble, as President Biden seeks to claim credit for the post-pandemic economic resurgence and reshape the nation’s economy while simultaneously addressing skepticism and concerns among the public. With potential challenges on the horizon and the unpredictable nature of the economy, the success of this high-stakes campaign remains to be seen.
