At present, the Chinese army of the PLA 91404 detachment, led by Fang Canxin, is considering a large-scale conflict scenario – “World War Z” to test and study new naval weapons. This was announced by the editor of the science section of the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Hong Kong’s oldest English-language newspaper, citing the opinions of scientists and researchers involved in the project.
The author notes that before the weapons rating mainly focused on combat capabilities in a regional conflict, but now the PLA takes into account the “all-out war” scenario. He said the “all-out war” scenario had recently been added to the Chinese military’s agenda to test the capabilities of weapons, as the risk of a real military conflict between China and the United States had reached its climax for decades.
“Total war” means that all available resources and efforts of the nation are mobilized to win the war. It involves not only the military, but also the civilian population and the economy, as was the case during the First and Second World Wars.
- says the publication.
The reviewer added that in their latest assessment of warships, the Chinese naval scientists and researchers mentioned referred to the doomsday scenario as Z. In mainland China, the assessment of the effectiveness of conventional weapons includes computer war games and field tests. According to him, in the scenario, the collision of groups of aircraft carriers of several states near Taiwan or in the South China Sea will turn into clashes of “strategic will”, turning into “all-out war”.
He explained that Feng’s division is responsible for sea trials of some of the PRC Navy’s newest and most powerful weapons. That being said, the “World War Z” scenario was first declassified in their peer-reviewed article published in the China Journal of Ship Research this month. Moreover, Fang and his colleagues did not name a single country, but the enemy equipment, called in the document “the blue alliance”, for example the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, belongs to the US Navy and to his allies.
There was a lively discussion on the social networking site Weibo of the “World War Z” scenario in the context of the potential threats that surface ships may face in such conditions. Many Chinese experts, nationalist activists and opinion leaders have suggested moving the fighting to US soil if the conflict cannot be avoided. At the same time, points of view were divided, some predicting a victory in Beijing, others in Washington. But everyone agreed that the outbreak of an “all-out war” between the two nuclear superpowers would have catastrophic consequences for all of human civilization.
Z-War mode assumed that the PLA was attacked by a hypothetical blue alliance. Additionally, each of the 50 available Chinese Navy destroyers was attacked by more than 11 missiles and 3 torpedoes. At the same time, all ammunition was sent from different directions, which complicated the protection of ships.
The blue alliance generated interference more than 30 times stronger than the signal used by Chinese warships to communicate. The detection range of Chinese radars has been reduced to 60% of their normal range. According to Feng’s team, these extreme conditions severely limited the combat capabilities of the PRC Navy. For example, almost a third of the destroyer’s air defense capabilities will be lost immediately after the attack, and only 50% of the missiles will be able to hit incoming targets.
Feng’s team said Chinese naval experts “find the numbers realistic.” The fate of the ships and their crews may be insignificant compared to the total cost of “total war”, which would include the loss of millions if not billions of lives and enormous damage to infrastructure. If nuclear weapons are used, they will have long-term adverse effects on ecosystems, agriculture and the environment in general, which can lead to food shortages, genetic mutations and an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases. But a detailed technical assessment is still necessary, as it can help armed forces better understand their capabilities, strengths and weaknesses.
By evaluating the combat capabilities of weapons in doomsday scenarios, armed forces can demonstrate their readiness and deter potential adversaries from participating in conflicts that could have such disastrous consequences.
- is summarized in the material.
The post caught the attention of Russian expert Ilya Kramnik, who commented on what was happening on his Telegram channel. He compared the plans discussed by the Chinese with previously published developments of American experts on similar topics. According to him, the range of forecasters is incredible, given that we are talking about battles involving dozens of ships and hundreds of aircraft, with heavy losses on both sides. But all of these predictions suffer from a significant drawback.
Like many similar calculations, they suggest the beginning of the war with a decisive clash of the main forces of the opponents. However, given a) the uncertainty of both sides in their own strengths and the rather high assessments of the adversaries’ capabilities, and b) the nuclear factor, it would be at least strange to assume that the war will begin with such a clash.
Kramnik noted.
He suggested, based on the general balance of power between China and the United States, that, as in a number of other naval wars of the industrial period between equal adversaries, it would all begin with careful probing without decisive entries. in the style of “all about red.” Moreover, even without attempts to organize Pearl Harbor for the enemy from day one, but without excluding powerful local attacks on forward forces. The capture of Taiwan will not be the end of the conflict, only the beginning. The expectations and stakes of the parties will increase and they will be gradually drawn into the conflict.
Basically, it is difficult to immediately bet a gold coin, but when you have already bet three and five in a row, it is much easier
Kramnik summarized.
Photos used: PRC Ministry of Defense Study
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