New Hampshire, USA:One of the hottest days for Republicans has ended. The New Hampshire primary confirmed the victory of former President Donald Trump, albeit not with a staggering margin over his sole rival, Nikki Haley. Now, Republican candidates are preparing for the next battle in South Carolina in a month. Already, many Haley supporters hint at the need to withdraw her candidacy from the race. On the same day, January 23, the Democratic primaries also took place. Joe Biden was not on the ballot, but the incumbent US president still won. We analyze how the race will unfold further.
Trump’s Victory in New Hampshire Complicates the Situation for Nikki Haley
The Republican Party’s presidential primary in New Hampshire ended with the expected victory of former President Donald Trump (54.6%). The result of his only opponent – former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley – exceeded expectations. The former UN ambassador gained 43.1% of the voters’ votes.
Despite Haley’s formal success, she lagged more than 10 percentage points behind Trump. Haley’s slim chances of success now may depend on winning the Republican primary on February 24 in her native South Carolina. However, few believe in such a turn of events.
Nikki Haley’s confidence that the race is just beginning probably only demonstrates her desire to stay in the race until the end. More and more Republican voices are calling Trump their main candidate. Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, called Trump “our possible candidate” in an interview on Fox News.
Moreover, President Joe Biden stated on Tuesday evening that “obviously,” Trump will be his opponent in the general election.
Why does no one believe in Nikki Haley, despite her having already faced the former president one-on-one and showing a relatively good result in such circumstances? Politico rightly points out: New Hampshire is essentially the most friendly territory for the former governor of South Carolina. The electorate on Tuesday was teeming with moderate and independent voters, traditionally considered Haley’s contingent. It will only get harder from here.
This seems true. As The New York Times writes, Republicans almost immediately began to pressure Nikki Haley to leave the race so the party could unite around one candidate. We think it’s known who is being talked about in this context.
The entire campaign of the woman who boldly challenged Donald Trump faces troubling polls. Moreover, the question now arises about the justification for the multimillion-dollar expenses on her support. According to CNN sources, sponsors of the former UN ambassador poured about $31 million into her political advertising in New Hampshire. That’s almost twice as much as similar expenses for Trump.
Politico specifies: several contests next month will be largely insignificant. Technically, Nevada conducts two Republican Party contests, and Republican presidential caucuses will also take place on the same day on the tiny US Virgin Islands. Importantly: Trump and Haley will not appear on the same ballot.
All attention is now focused on South Carolina, where the Republican primary will take place on February 24. And this is already being called a decisive moment for Nikki Haley.
From Wednesday, her campaign will start airing television ads in the Palmetto State. In addition, on the evening of January 24, the enterprising Haley planned an event near Charleston. Premature? Possibly.
Despite winning two terms as governor in South Carolina, Haley cannot count on her former status as a lifeline.
South Carolina’s electorate is much more conservative and more evangelical – these are the voters among whom Trump dominated in the first two electoral campaigns this month.
Let’s count and compare. According to the National Election Pool exit poll, more than a third of Republican primary voters in New Hampshire on Tuesday (34%) identified themselves as moderate or liberal. Haley won 75% of their votes.
Among South Carolina voters, only 19% in the 2016 Republican primary identified themselves as moderate or liberals.
Conservatives in New Hampshire voted this way: about 70% for Trump and about 28% for Haley.
In essence, all leading Republicans in her home state opposed her. All but one member of the state’s Republican Party delegation in Congress support Trump.
What Haley needs is a significant surge of Trump skeptics who usually do not vote in the primaries. In South Carolina, there is no party registration of voters, Politico clarifies, so anyone can vote in the Republican primary on February 24 – provided the voter does not first vote in the Democratic primary three weeks earlier, on February 3. But again, we emphasize that in the Palmetto State there is not the same independent drive as in New Hampshire.
Biden’s Surprising Path to the Presidency
In addition to the really important Republican primaries, the Democratic primaries also took place in New Hampshire on the same day. They were not mandatory, and Joe Biden was not even on the ballot. However, after this optional stage, the Democratic Party begins to live in anticipation of the primaries in South Carolina. This will happen on February 3.
Even before the Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, Biden’s supporters admitted that they would have preferred his victory on January 23. And that’s what happened.
Remember, Biden did not register to vote in New Hampshire due to an internal party dispute over the primary date and the decision of the Democratic National Committee that the elections would not actually be counted.
The Democratic wing, in anticipation of the vote in the Granite State, began to look more cautiously at the figures of Democrats Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. Simply, it was very difficult to explain to voters why they should continue to support the incumbent president if he is not even on the lists. According to the American press, the president’s allies in the state called on voters to “write in Biden’s name.” This means that voters could simply write the president’s name on the ballot.
In this rather controversial way, Biden managed to accumulate as much as 51.4% of the voters’ votes. Dean Phillips, compared to “sleepy Joe,” got a modest 19.8%, and Marianne Williamson only 4.7%.
Thus, the results in New Hampshire brought Joe Biden closer to a rematch with Trump in the general election in November.
Biden’s supporters’ efforts elevated his position through an election campaign that spent six-figure sums. The campaign included digital advertising and mail campaigning.
However, Dean Phillips remains the “dark horse” in the Democratic race. He started his campaign with trump cards: he stated that although he respects Biden, the incumbent president risks losing to the 45th leader of America.
As the election campaign progressed, Phillips became more critical of Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole, stating that the president poses a threat to democracy. The Minnesota House of Representatives member was angered by the fact that Florida at some point decided to exclude him from the primary vote in the state. As the only Democratic candidate in the Sunshine State, only Joe Biden was nominated. Without an alternative.
Dean Phillips, who recently said he invested $5 million of his own funds in the election race, according to Politico, used an unusual strategy in New Hampshire, attacking Biden from both the left and the right. He surpassed Biden on many issues, including painful border security.
But let’s remember again that Biden’s participation in the New Hampshire primary was unofficial. The fact that a group of Biden’s supporters decided to write his name on the ballots anyway is a clear merit of the pre-election agitation. Although there is a victory, it is largely symbolic.
The results of the primaries in South Carolina on February 3 will be much more important for Biden and his campaign. Ironically, Biden’s quest for a big win in the Palmetto State could undermine Republican Nikki Haley’s efforts to beat Trump in her home state.
The presidential campaign’s television advertising in South Carolina for Biden has already been launched. In addition, you can hear about Biden on gospel radio stations and other media with a significant percentage of black audience. In general, Democrats simply force potential voters to tune their receivers to the “Biden wave.” And so far, frankly, the chance of triumph is higher for the incumbent president. Other candidates simply cannot provide a strong alternative due to their lack of experience in such events.
Why is “Super Tuesday” Important?
“Super Tuesday” is important for both parties. In 2024, it is scheduled for March 5. It is a day in the US presidential elections when the largest number of American states holds primaries.
The likelihood of any candidate winning on “Super Tuesday” is greater than on any other day. Thus, its results are a convincing indicator of candidate support from each party.
The specific states holding primaries on “Super Tuesday” vary from year to year, as each state chooses its election day separately from each other. In 2024, this list looks like this: Alabama, Republican caucuses in Alaska, American Samoa caucuses, Arkansas, California, Colorado, mail-in voting at the Iowa Democratic caucus, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Democratic primaries in Utah, and Republican caucuses in Vermont and Virginia.
