America, Saudi Arabia and Israel.. Why does Iran fear the agreement that “will change the region”?

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday against “normalization with Israel,” as news circulated that the United States and Saudi Arabia were close to reaching a bilateral agreement that might strengthen Washington’s parallel efforts to normalize relations between the Kingdom and Israel.

Khamenei’s statements came in response to the recent visit by US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, to Riyadh, where he tried to reset previous efforts for a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement.

The US government’s efforts to revive diplomacy for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia raised questions about Iran’s fears of this rapprochement and the impact of this on its relationship with the Kingdom.

Tehran fears Saudi influence

Saudi political analyst, Muhammad Al-Amir said in an interview “Talk about rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel raises serious concerns in Tehran, as officials hoped that the Gaza war would completely sabotage these efforts.”

He added, “After the recent exchange of blows between Iran and Israel due to the Gaza war, it has become natural that Tehran does not want to see a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement for fear of losing its relationship with Riyadh, even if this is not the desire of the Saudi government.”

He continued, “Iran does not want to see other countries in the region enjoying a high level of armament alongside Israel, so talk about a security or military agreement is what worries it most, compared to the normalization that the UAE and Bahrain concluded with Israel in 2020.”

The political expert explained, “Even if Saudi Arabia follows the path of the UAE and Bahrain and restricts its security cooperation with Israel after normalization, this may expose it to criticism also from Iran, due to its position, role and authority in the Islamic world, and therefore the risks that the Kingdom faces are much higher than Those faced by the UAE, Bahrain, or any other Arab Islamic country that normalizes relations with Israel.”

The analyst, the prince, stressed that “Saudi Arabia, as a religious symbol and a pivotal country in the Arab world and the Middle East, will not accept any agreement with Israel that would threaten the security of other countries in the region, whether Iran or others.”

He also pointed out that “the Saudi government has made it clear decisively that it will not agree to normalization with Israel without the condition of establishing a Palestinian state because the Kingdom will not abandon the Palestinians, and this increases Iran’s concern, because resolving the Palestinian issue means, from Tehran’s point of view, that Israel and the U.S. The United States will focus on it.”

The Saudi political expert spoke about the continued desire of the United States to conclude an agreement with Saudi Arabia, saying, “Now, in the last six months of his term, the American President, Joe Biden, seems keen to revive the agreement with Saudi Arabia in one way or another, despite Israel’s rejection of any idea of ​​establishing a state.” Palestinian, which is essential in the Kingdom’s offer to the tripartite agreement.”

He added, “Although Israel’s agreement to the condition of establishing a Palestinian state seems unlikely, Biden hopes that reaching a bilateral agreement as a second option with the Kingdom will help rein in the Israeli government, try to resolve the Iran crisis, and keep the door open for a possible agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia in later”.

Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia resumed, with Chinese mediation, in March 2023, as the two countries expressed their desire that “the return of the normal relationship would reflect positively on the region, the Islamic world, and the entire world,” according to what the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, said at the time.

For his part, the Saudi analyst, Mubarak Al-Ati said, “Saudi Arabia is one of the largest and most important countries in the region, and its policy is characterized by sobriety and reason. Therefore, when it establishes any relations with other countries, it takes upon itself the security, stability, and peace of the region.”

He added, “Such a tripartite agreement will greatly enhance the power and position of Saudi Arabia in the region and will protect the region and its security. This is what Iran views with awe, considering that it is directed against it and targets it.”

He continued, “If this agreement is concluded, we will see that many other countries will also try to enter into peaceful agreements, and this will force Iran to stop interfering in the internal affairs of Arab countries and respect their sovereignty and privacy.”

He pointed out that “Saudi-Israeli normalization was already imminent before the Gaza war, and this matter still exists, but with different conditions and requirements according to the new data and developments taking place in the region, but given Israel’s continuation of its war on Gaza and its refusal to establish a Palestinian state, this agreement has now become distant.” “.

Therefore, he believes that “Iran’s fears are unjustified because the Kingdom is keen to establish balanced relations with everyone, even with rivals or opponents,” explaining that “Saudi Arabia will not stop in the face of such fears as much as it stops in the face of its national interests and the interests of its brothers in the region, and therefore it must overcome any disagreement.” hinders these interests.”

The administration of US President Joe Biden has been trying for months to push Saudi Arabia and Israel to sign a peace agreement, but the deal discussions collapsed and stopped after the Hamas movement launched an attack on Israel on October 7, which responded with a war on Hamas in Gaza.

Bloomberg quoted informed sources on Wednesday as saying that the negotiations have accelerated in recent weeks, with many officials feeling optimistic that Washington and Riyadh may reach an agreement within weeks that would provide the Kingdom with security guarantees, determine a possible path for diplomatic relations with Israel, and restore… Formation of the Middle East.

The agency explained that the agreement faces many obstacles, but it will represent a new version of the framework that was canceled as a result of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

“Such a deal would likely reshape the Middle East. In addition to strengthening the security of Israel and Saudi Arabia, it would also strengthen the position of the United States in the region at the expense of Iran and even China,” according to the agency.

She indicated that the agreement would need Congressional approval because it might give Saudi Arabia access to advanced American weapons that were previously prohibited.

The agreement also includes Saudi Arabia’s agreement to limit the use of Chinese technology in sensitive networks in the country in exchange for large American investments and assistance in building a civilian nuclear program.

The agency stated that once Washington and Riyadh reach the expected agreement, they will present two options to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: either joining the deal, which requires establishing official diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and more investment and regional integration, or moving forward without it.

The agency added that the basic condition that will be placed before Netanyahu relates to the necessity of ending the war in Gaza and agreeing to a path to establish a Palestinian state.

However, Bloomberg believes that there will be several obstacles in the way of the agreement, including the issue of convincing Congress to approve a deal that obliges the United States to protect Saudi Arabia militarily, which is difficult for the White House, especially if Israel chooses not to join the agreement.

On the Israeli side, Netanyahu leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history, and he previously ruled out moving forward with the two-state solution option.

The ruling coalition in Israel also confirms that it is still planning to attack the city of Rafah in Gaza, which the United States and Arab countries fear will lead to the death of thousands more Palestinian civilians.

Such an attack would also jeopardize the prospects for a short-term ceasefire, which US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday, says is a priority for President Biden.

Foreign Policy magazine believes that Iran has strong reasons to reject Saudi-Israeli normalization, explaining that just last year, the Israeli army was reported to have carried out more than 400 air strikes since 2017 in Syria and other parts of the Middle East against targets affiliated with Iran and its allies. She explained that the number of these attacks has certainly increased since then in conjunction with the Gaza war.

The magazine explained that if Saudi Arabia concludes an agreement with Israel, Iran will likely threaten the kingdom’s own security, either directly, as it did in September 2019, when it struck Saudi oil facilities with drones and missiles, or indirectly through regional agents, including Including the Houthis in Yemen.

For Tehran, the partnership between Saudi Arabia and Israel is considered an existential threat to it, especially after Israel showed no hesitation in using military force to confront Iranian plans and influence in the Middle East.

According to the magazine, “Iran is also more concerned about a preemptive attack by Israel against its nuclear program than it is about the United States. So, if Saudi Arabia cooperates with Israel, Iran will assume that Riyadh will provide a platform for the Israeli military to launch a rapid attack against Iran, even if it does not.” “The Saudi leadership had no intention of doing so.”

Presence is not peaceful

The former Iranian diplomat, Sayyed Hadi Sayyed Afqahi told the media that Israel’s normalization with the countries of the region, led by Saudi Arabia, is considered a worrying matter for Iran, especially after the Gaza War, because Israel’s presence is not peaceful and it is not qualified for cultural, social, or political coexistence with the countries of the region or “its peoples.”

He added, “The countries of the region must solve their problems without bringing Israel or the United States into the equation now, because in view of the Saudi-Iranian normalization agreement, we will find that it was mediated by China, not America, and since that time the economic relations between the two countries have witnessed a significant improvement.”

He considered that “Iran does not interfere in the internal affairs of countries, and does not impose its opinion on any country. This is what happened when the UAE and Bahrain decided to normalize relations with Israel. However, relations between Tehran and the two countries continued.”

Afqahi said, “But in general, Tehran does not recommend that this normalization take place with Saudi Arabia and Israel, given what is happening in Gaza at the present time.” He emphasized what Khamenei said in his recent statements that the normalization processes neither advance nor delay, but rather harm, and are against the stability and interests of the peoples of the region.

He added, “Iran does not seek to create more tension in the region, and it proved this in the recent operation (The True Promise) when it was satisfied with only one strike to deter the enemy from attacking it.”

The Iranian diplomat rules out reaching an actual normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, saying, “Israel will not accept the Kingdom’s two most important conditions. The first relates to access to American sensitive weapons and the initiation of a civilian nuclear program because it does not want another power in the region to compete with it militarily. As for the second condition, which is… What is also difficult to achieve is the two-state solution, making it clear that there is nothing left in Gaza or even the West Bank to establish a Palestinian state.”