Israel’s war with Lebanon will be unconventional and different from the 2006 war

The Israeli army has launched a ground attack on three axes with Lebanon, and some experts speculate that the bet lies in Hezbollah’s ability to exploit its combat capabilities, because it is an unconventional confrontation and completely different from the 2006 war.

The Guardian Reports, “This is what they have informed us that they are currently conducting, which are limited operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border,” the State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller said.

Jordanian Armed Forces, military expert, Major General Fayez Al-Dwairi, said that all indications indicate that the Israeli ground operation has begun because the forces don’t need to cross the Blue Line border, stressing that the heavy artillery shelling, the declaration of a closed military zone, and the entry of engineering forces are all inevitable preludes to the ground incursion.

Al-Dwairi pointed out that the Israeli army had mobilized more than 6 divisions and announced the opening of 5 brigades (more than a full division), and expected that it would launch an attack on the north, center, and south of the border.

He said that Hezbollah forces would not be able to defend the entire 105-kilometer border, but would try to focus on the areas most important to them, stressing that the defensive plan – cohesion and comprehensiveness – would play a decisive role in the battle.

The military expert pointed to the video that the party showed a few weeks ago of a tunnel in which a large truck was moving and said that exploiting this infrastructure would be an important part of the confrontations.

A different and unconventional war

“We are talking about an unconventional war between an army that has a large air, ground, and armored force, along with open international support, against an armed group that is described as one of the most powerful armed groups in the world, but it is not an army in the end,” Al-Dwairi added, suggesting that Hezbollah would sacrifice a certain depth on the ground to lure the Israeli forces to enter.

The military expert stressed that Hezbollah will not adopt the idea of ​​a decisive battle from the beginning, which exposes it to a great loss due to the large air and artillery forces that the Israeli army possesses. He expected that the party would resort to guerrilla warfare, “even if it retreats beyond the Litani River, it will leave behind forces to surprise the enemy.”

Al-Dwairi ruled out that the expected Israeli military operation would be limited, as the United States and Israeli officials say, “because the doctrine of the Israeli army is based on investing in successes on the ground, meaning that if it achieves success in Aita al-Shaab, it will push beyond the Litani River.”

Al-Dwairi pointed out that the most dangerous point lies in the distance between Nabatieh and the Litani River, and said that if it were subject to the Israeli’s control, it would completely isolate Hezbollah’s “Nasr” force, but he expected this area to witness very violent combat nodes. He said that the use of “MD” missiles would be decisive in this ground confrontation.

A completely different war

Brigadier General Elias Hanna agreed with Al-Dwairi’s talk about the danger of the area between Nabatieh and the Litani, but he said that the Israeli Military is targeting the leadership, control, infrastructure, and popular support for Hezbollah all at once, and therefore “we do not know the status of the party’s qualitative missiles yet.”

Hanna stressed that the current battle is completely different from the 2006 battle, “because both sides learned the lesson and increased their strength and defenses, as Israel spent more than $100 billion on securing the borders, while Hezbollah was able to recruit tens of thousands of young men and increased its armament until it became something like the armies of the region.”

Regarding the indicators of war, Hanna said that the provision of artillery to the border, the distribution of tanks, and the current shelling are all tactical indicators of the imminence of a ground attack, noting that Israel has tried to empty Hezbollah’s command system from within, and therefore the next step will be a ground incursion.

He concluded by saying that Hezbollah will fight in a hybrid manner – i.e. guerrilla warfare and regular armies according to the circumstances – because it does not seek a decisive war but rather fighting from zero distance because it gives it superiority over the enemy.

He said that the Israeli army is implementing maneuver warfare to avoid direct clashes, and therefore it may go to the Galilee Finger area to isolate the Bekaa area and then strike the Nasr and Aziz forces from behind, indicating that this type is the most severe type of strike.

Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem confirmed in his first appearance after the assassination of the party’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that the party’s fighters are ready to engage with Israeli forces if they infiltrate, and he stressed that entering Lebanon will not be a walk-in the park.

He also stressed that the party’s command and control system had not collapsed after the assassinations that targeted a group of its leaders in the past few days and that each leader had begun implementing the arrangements made in advance for such circumstances.