What happens if Iran’s nuclear facilities are hit by Israeli missiles?

The Israeli Air Force conducted military exercises over the Mediterranean Sea, which included simulations of long-range flights, aerial refueling, and striking distant targets. According to the Israel Hayom, these exercises are part of preparations for possible strikes targeting Iranian military bases.

Since Israel decided to respond to the Iranian strike with about 180 ballistic missiles, there has been debate among political experts about the nature of that strike, and in particular about whether it could target Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran’s nuclear facilities

Iran has multiple nuclear sites, each serving different functions in its nuclear program, such as uranium enrichment, scientific research, and power generation. The nature of these facilities determines the type and amount of radioactive material stored there, which affects the potential environmental consequences of such a strike if it were to occur. This remains a small possibility, according to experts.

For example, the Bushehr nuclear power plant contains an operating nuclear reactor. The uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow primarily deal with uranium enrichment, which means that hitting them would release enriched uranium or uranium hexafluoride, which would still be dangerous but less catastrophic than hitting the operating reactor at Bushehr.

At facilities like Arak, plutonium, which is more toxic and has a longer lifespan than uranium, can be produced, and damage to these facilities can release tritium, plutonium, and other radioactive byproducts.

What if the nuclear plant was hit?

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is the first nuclear power plant in Iran, located near the city of Bushehr on the coast of the Persian Gulf. The plant operates with a pressurized water reactor, and the net electricity production at the plant is about 1,000 megawatts.

If the plant is hit, it will lead to disasters similar to those of Chornobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011), including the release of radioactive isotopes such as iodine-131, cesium-137, and strontium-90.

The immediate explosion from hitting the station could destroy infrastructure within 1-5 kilometers around it, with very high radiation levels and thermal effects leading to fires depending on the strength of the strike, and this area would likely be instantly fatal to anyone inside.

It is also likely that if the strike was strong enough to hit all sides of the plant, radiation levels within 20-50 kilometers would be fatal. Anyone who is not protected against radiation could suffer acute radiation poisoning, symptoms of which begin with nausea and vomiting but quickly progress.

Therefore, mandatory and rapid evacuation will be required due to dangerous radiation levels, similarly, the Chornobyl disaster led to the evacuation of areas within a 50 km radius.

In this context, a major exclusion zone is likely to be created, and this area will be heavily contaminated with radioactive dust over time, making it uninhabitable for decades or even centuries, as the soil, water sources, plants, and all food supplies are contaminated, leading to long-term environmental degradation.

Deadly Chemistry

Because Iran’s nuclear sites are numerous and spread over a wide area of ​​the country, striking them simultaneously or in successive strikes (with the aim of stopping or delaying the Iranian nuclear program) will have a wide-ranging environmental impact, as nuclear dust and toxic gas will spread.

Radioactive isotopes that spread as dust from these impacts can bind to soil particles, leading to long-term contamination of agricultural land. In particular, elements such as cesium-137 have a half-life of decades, meaning that affected areas could be unfit for agriculture for decades.

Water resources close to impact sites, such as rivers or groundwater aquifers, pose the greatest risk, as impacts will inevitably contaminate essential water sources, contaminating fish and other marine life, which can then enter the food chain for other organisms, including humans, potentially leading to a catastrophic decline in the country’s food security.

Direct effects

All this and we haven’t even talked about the direct effects of these radioactive materials. In uranium enrichment facilities, for example, uranium hexafluoride can be released, and when exposed to moisture, it turns into highly toxic hydrofluoric acid, which can cause severe burns and respiratory damage if inhaled.

There are other elements that are released in the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, such as iodine 131, which is released with radioactive leaks and is directly absorbed by the thyroid gland in humans and animals, which increases the risk of thyroid cancer.

On the other hand, cesium-137 tends to accumulate in soft tissues and can enter the body through inhalation, ingestion, or external exposure depending on the contamination conditions. High doses of it (as well as other radioactive elements) lead to acute radiation syndrome, which can cause symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, skin burns, and, in severe cases death.

Strontium-90 mimics calcium and accumulates in the bones, increasing the risk of bone cancer and leukemia.

Plutonium-239 is a highly toxic isotope with a half-life of more than 24,000 years. It is dangerous if inhaled or ingested, as it can settle in the lungs and bones, and emits alpha radiation that damages internal tissue.

The medical and environmental effects of the aforementioned radioactive materials depend on several factors, including the force of the strike, the size of the dust particles that will be ejected, the strength and direction of the wind, and the proximity of people, water sources, and agricultural land to the targeted facility.

However, such a strike (whether it achieves its objectives or not) will cause a major environmental disaster, due to the spread of nuclear facilities in different areas of the country, as we mentioned earlier. Hitting them will consequently lead to the widespread spread of radioactive contamination that will undoubtedly reach major cities and directly and indirectly affect a large number of the population.