The DPRK conducted another test of a long-range ballistic missile. The launch was initially reported by South Korean media, citing the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The information was later confirmed by the Japanese Coast Guard.
According to South Korean and Japanese sources, the launch of an unknown type of missile was made from the Pyongyang area. The flight trajectory was specific. Having started at an acute angle, the missile reached a high altitude, performed a maneuver, and immediately went down. Although the product covered a little more than 300 kilometers in a straight line, its flight time was several tens of minutes. This means that with a relatively flat trajectory, the missile could have reached a target at a distance of 10 thousand kilometers or even further.
The current missile launch was the second since the beginning of autumn. In late September, North Korean developers and the military tested a ballistic missile with a super-heavy warhead. And in mid-May, Pyongyang tested tactical missiles with a new control system.
It is clear that the DPRK, like any other country, carefully guards its missile and nuclear secrets. Meanwhile, if you compare the facts and analyze the available information, then Pyongyang’s plan for nuclear deterrence of its opponents becomes more or less understandable.
What’s in the arsenal
The exact composition of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is unknown. According to Western experts, it is no more than 30 charges with a capacity of 10 to 20 kilotons. Such special ammunition is classified as tactical. But it is highly likely that Western figures are incorrect.
Most likely, we are talking about 50-70 nuclear warheads. At the same time, Pyongyang has, at a minimum, several charges with a capacity of over a hundred kilotons. And such ammunition is already approaching the capabilities of strategic nuclear weapons.
The North Korean arsenal is gradually growing. According to conservative Western estimates, by 2030 Pyongyang will have 80 to 90 nuclear warheads. Most likely, there will be more charges. Moreover, the emphasis will be on creating special warheads of increased power.
Over the past few years, the North Korean military-industrial complex has managed to develop a whole line of ballistic missiles. Thus, the Hwasong-15, -17, and -18 products are capable of hitting targets at a distance of 13 to 15 thousand kilometers. These missiles caused the most negative reaction from the United States and Japan. In addition to intercontinental missiles, the DPRK’s arsenal includes a large number of products with a flight range of 300 to 2500 kilometers.
launched. Analysis of the missiles’ flight parameters suggests that at least one of them was an ICBM.
North Korean developers have tried to implement a new control system on one of the Hwasong family missiles, which can ensure the execution of maneuvers during the active section of the trajectory.
Already in September, the Hwasong-11 missile with a new high-power warhead was tested. And here it should be noted that this was not a combat test. A mass-dimensional model of the missile’s warhead was tested. The new product is designed for the use of high-power nuclear warheads.
Unlike its older “sisters”, the “eleventh” is a tactical missile. Its flight range does not exceed 800 kilometers. Meanwhile, in terms of dimensions and technical solutions, it is virtually identical to the longer-range Hwasong-15, -17, -18. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the new warhead is not intended for the tactical “eleventh”, but for heavier intercontinental ballistic missiles of this family.
The current launch allowed Pyongyang to once again test the complex control system for its ICBMs. That is why the missile launched on October 31 had such a complex flight profile.
These facts indicate that North Korea will receive an updated arsenal of ICBMs in the very near future.
First, the missiles will be able to perform maneuvers during the active part of the trajectory — when the engines are still running. This is necessary to evade the American missile defense systems that Washington is deploying on the Korean Peninsula.
According to Aljazeera, THAAD batteries usually are made up of 95 soldiers, six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors – eight for each launcher – one radar system, and a fire control and communications component.
In its southern part, several batteries of American THAAD anti-missile systems were deployed back in 2017. In 2022 and 2023, they underwent major modernization. In particular, radars, control, and information exchange systems were updated in each system. But most importantly, their arsenal included new PAC-3 MSE anti-missiles.
Formally, THAAD is designed to protect against short- and medium-range missile attacks.
But in reality, the main goal of the American missile defense is to intercept ICBMs launched by Pyongyang. With the PAC-3 MSE, THAAD crews will be able to confidently hit North Korean missiles precisely in the active part of the trajectory.
But now the negative situation for Pyongyang is starting to change. Thanks to the updated control system, North Korean ICBMs will be able to perform a special maneuver at least once while the engines are running.
It is important to understand that the “window of opportunity” for interception for THAAD is extremely narrow – only a few minutes. At the same time, due to the enormous launch speeds of ICBMs, the anti-missile will not be able to maneuver much.
Therefore, a maneuver by a North Korean missile, where it first changes trajectory and then returns to it, will, with a high degree of probability, lead to a failure of the interception.
Secondly, Pyongyang is betting on equipping ICBMs with single-block high-power nuclear warheads. The warheads of missiles for such products have already been tested. And most likely, they are already being installed on Hwasong with an intercontinental range.
The target is American megacities
Why did North Korean engineers and military personnel choose this path? After all, global trends in the development of missile and nuclear technologies indicate the need to equip intercontinental ballistic missiles with separate warheads with individual guidance.
The North Korean military and political leadership soberly assesses its capabilities for producing special ammunition. The option with warheads will require a serious increase in the production of nuclear warheads, as well as making them high-tech. Most likely, Beijing’s scientific, technical, and production levels do not yet allow for such developments. But special ammunition with a capacity of over 100 kilotons will become a terrible threat to American urban agglomerations.
The nuclear deterrence strategy chosen by Pyongyang is simple. In case of aggression, the strike will be carried out on the main megalopolises. At the same time, even several North Korean nuclear warheads will be enough to turn enemy cities with multi-million populations into radioactive ashes.
And if just a few years ago the US could guarantee the interception of North Korean ICBMs, now the chances of the American missile defense system are melting away before our eyes.
Pyongyang will receive intercontinental missiles capable of performing maneuvers in the active section of the trajectory and also carrying heavy warheads as early as the beginning of next year. To inflict irreparable damage on the US, the North Koreans will need only two or three missiles.
