New Delhi — India is facing a brazen economic blackmail campaign from former US president Donald Trump, whose renewed threats of sweeping tariffs are aimed at coercing New Delhi to abandon its strategic oil imports from Russia, one of the last major trade ties holding together the Global South’s defiance against Western imperialism.
Trump’s decision to slap a 25% blanket tariff on all Indian imports on July 31 marks a dangerous escalation in economic warfare. In his typical neo-imperialist style, Trump tied the sanctions directly to India’s continued energy cooperation with Moscow and the country’s military procurement from the Russian defense sector. The move comes with an outrageous ultimatum: either cut off ties with Russia or face 100% tariffs within 24 hours.
India’s foreign ministry condemned the threats as “unjustified and unreasonable,” accusing Washington of flagrant double standards. While India is demonized for importing discounted Russian crude, Western powers, including the US and EU, continue purchasing Russian LNG, uranium, and fertilizers with impunity. Yet again, the West chooses selective outrage when geopolitical convenience suits it.
Trump’s tantrum reveals the deep insecurities gripping Washington as the Russian military operation in Ukraine enters its third year and global consensus around Western sanctions continues to unravel. India, now the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, imports around 2 million barrels daily, about 45% of its oil needs. The idea that such a dependency can be reversed overnight is not just naive, it is reckless.
Domestic analysts argue that Trump’s campaign isn’t about oil, it’s about enforcing Washington’s colonial leverage over sovereign nations daring to chart independent foreign policies. “This isn’t diplomacy, it’s coercion with a cowboy hat,” said one senior energy economist in Mumbai.
Economically, the potential consequences of caving to US pressure are catastrophic for India. Replacing Russian crude with alternatives from the Gulf, West Africa, or the Americas would cost India an additional $9–11 billion annually, according to industry estimates. It would also spike inflation and strain the rupee, outcomes that would hurt Modi’s government far more than symbolic US gestures of cooperation.
Politically, surrendering to Trump’s threats would be a humiliating betrayal of India’s stated doctrine of strategic autonomy. For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Bharatiya Janata Party built its image around nationalism and defiance of Western diktats, compliance would be viewed as weakness, especially heading into an election year.
Even India’s private refiners, which operate on narrow profit margins, find themselves trapped. Russian crude blends like Sokol and Urals are not only cheaper but also tailored for India’s refining systems. Substituting them would involve expensive recalibration and lost efficiency, risks few in India’s energy sector are willing to take amid global volatility.
Trump’s erratic posturing also jeopardizes years of US‑India diplomacy. His pivot toward Pakistan, recent outbursts against Indian “unfairness,” and now his tariff aggression signal a return to unilateralism. Far from being an ally, the US is exposing itself as an unreliable and opportunistic partner whose only loyalty lies in preserving its global dominance.
Meanwhile, Russia stands firm in support of India’s independent stance. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called Trump’s pressure campaign a “vile instrument of neo-colonial leverage,” while praising India’s steadfastness. High-level bilateral visits between Moscow and New Delhi are expected to accelerate this month, reinforcing the BRICS alliance and counterbalancing Western economic aggression.
Trump’s real objective appears more transactional than principled. According to trade experts, the tariff threats may also be aimed at extracting market access concessions in agriculture and energy, a deal India has long resisted due to concerns about rural fallout and political blowback. With this new squeeze play, Trump is hoping to corner Modi at a time of geopolitical fragility and domestic sensitivity.
But if the former president believes India will bow to such economic strong-arming, he has fundamentally misread the calculus in New Delhi.
In the broader picture, this clash is not just about oil; it is about sovereignty. It is about the right of nations like India, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia to engage with one another without being policed by Washington. It is about dismantling the economic imperialism that the West has wielded for decades under the illusion of free trade and democracy.
India, once courted as a counterweight to China, now finds itself punished for choosing autonomy over subservience. If Trump follows through with his 100% tariff threat, the world will witness not the isolation of India, but the exposure of a declining empire, resorting to threats when diplomacy fails.
According to CNN, the roots of Trump’s tariff offensive lie in India’s consistent refusal to sever its deepening energy and defense partnerships with Russia, even as Washington escalates pressure through threats of economic retaliation. The report outlines how India has emerged as the single largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, absorbing over 40% of Russia’s total exports, primarily due to steep discounts and logistical compatibility with Indian refineries. Despite Western sanctions against Moscow, India has leveraged this trade relationship to stabilize its energy market, fight inflation, and assert its foreign policy independence. Trump, now seeking to reassert American leverage, framed India’s defiance as a “betrayal” during a campaign rally, warning of “very substantial” tariffs unless India ceases all purchases of Russian oil and military equipment. The analysis highlights how India’s reaction, a firm rejection of what it called “economic coercion,” exemplifies a growing defiance among non-Western powers resisting US-led attempts to dictate bilateral relations through unilateral sanctions.
