Who would have thought when Pakistan first announced its nuclear success that this very nation would, decades later, be framed as part of a de facto security umbrella for West Asia? At the time, the natural assumption was that Pakistan’s deterrent existed solely to counter its nuclear-armed neighbor, India. Perhaps Israel, more than most, sensed the potential role Pakistan could play in the Muslim world in a future multipolar order. That may explain why Israel once contemplated sabotaging Pakistan’s nuclear program, plans that were never executed, largely because the political fabric of Asia at the time was woven tightly around US interests.
The nuclearization of Pakistan in the late 1990s was seen as a regional balancing act, not a tool of pan-Islamic security. Few predicted that in 2025, Gulf capitals would look to Islamabad not just for manpower and remittances but as part of a Riyadh-led collective security calculus. What was once merely a symbol of deterrence is now a strategic pillar in the shifting sands of West Asian geopolitics, with Saudi statecraft setting the tempo.
Prelude to militarization
Israel’s September 9 attack on Doha will be remembered as an inflection point in Gulf security. A region long focused on development and prosperity now seeks alternatives for its security needs. The reason is clear: Washington, the decades-long guarantor, is hemorrhaging credibility in the Arab world.
The defense pact signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signals this tectonic shift. Two nations, one with immense economic power and energy resources, the other long envisioned by some as a cornerstone of any Arab-Islamic military alignment, have now formally joined hands. This agreement followed an extraordinary Arab-Islamic summit in Doha. The communiqués that emerged, including declarations that an attack on one is an attack on all and vows to activate a GCC joint defense mechanism, suggest a high-stakes contest of politics and diplomacy is underway.
Riyadh’s balancing act
Saudi Arabia is attempting a careful balance, signaling a shift in its security posture while avoiding direct confrontation with partners and rivals. A senior Saudi official told Reuters, in remarks cited by CNN World, that the pact was “a culmination of years of discussions” and “not a response to specific countries or events.”
Even so, the timing raised eyebrows. Many analysts see a political message as much as a military one. Saudi Arabia maintains substantial trade with India, Pakistan’s rival, and Pakistan has bilateral ties with Iran, Riyadh’s main competitor in the Gulf. The real challenge is not whether the two will aid each other in a conflict, but whether they can avoid being dragged into each other’s regional rivalries and compromising ties with friendly nations.
For Saudi Arabia, ties with India remain vital. As Riyadh reaches the zenith of its economic transformation, India is a vast market for investment and trade. A fine, cautious line must be walked. India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal underscored that point, saying: “We expect that this strategic partnership will keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.”
This balancing act will test Riyadh’s diplomatic agility. For Pakistan, maintaining relations with Tehran while stepping into a Gulf security role will require nuance. Any misstep risks inflaming old rivalries and broadening the theater of escalation.
Israel’s strategic setback
For Israel, this is a strategic loss. Its anxieties over a potential nuclear-armed Iran were already high. Now it faces the specter of a nuclear-armed Pakistan interpreted by many as offering extended deterrence to Gulf nations. The nightmare scenario Israel feared in the 1990s, an Islamic nuclear coalition, is suddenly closer to reality.
Washington appears publicly unperturbed. These developments are unfolding with full US awareness, and there has been no sign of immediate alarm. The prelude to this moment was not only Israel’s unprecedented strike on Doha but also years of relentless bombing and incursions in Gaza, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and now Qatar. Add to this a series of high-level contacts between President Trump and Pakistan’s leadership, including his earlier hosting of Pakistan’s now Field Marshal army chief, and a Qatari delegation’s outreach to Washington after the Doha attack. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also visited Qatar after meetings in Israel, signaling that Washington is managing escalation quietly, not overtly.
For now, much remains speculative. The fuller story may surface in the coming days, perhaps even in a Truth Social post by President Trump.
Stakes for Pakistan and India
For both India and Pakistan, the pact adds complexity to any conflict scenario. Paradoxically, that may operate as a brake, reducing the chance of another war that would bring only grief. Saudi Arabia, a trusted friend to New Delhi and Islamabad, can play a constructive role in defusing decades of hostility. As a senior Saudi official, cited by Reuters, put it:
Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace whichever way we can.
For Pakistan, this is a pivotal test of diplomatic statecraft. After striking a pact with the region’s central player, it is plausible others will seek security guarantees to deter Israeli adventurism, even as Pakistan’s defense minister publicly stresses restraint. As AP reported alongside regional media, officials deny any offensive nuclear dimension, describing the arrangement as operative only if either party is threatened, and suggesting a framework open to other Gulf states.
This restrained language, paired with Riyadh’s emphasis that the pact was years in the making, frames the agreement as a strategic partnership rooted in regional security, not an escalatory move. The intent, at least on paper, is to institutionalize stability and deter further Israeli strikes beyond Gaza.
Washington’s role and missed opportunities
President Trump still has avenues to slow militarization in West Asia and South Asia. Unlike the Biden administration, which sanctioned Pakistani individuals and firms several times from 2021 to 2025 over alleged ballistic missile development, and publicly questioned whether Pakistan’s missiles could reach as far as Washington, Trump has pursued engagement.
His recent outreach to Pakistan’s military leadership shows diplomacy is still possible. He has taken bold steps before, as when he acted to counter Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians in Syria.
The question now is whether Washington will again play a stabilizing role as it did in the 1990s, when it restrained Israel from sabotaging Pakistan’s nuclear program. Had the US restrained Israel from attacking Qatar, this chain reaction might have been avoided, and Israel would not be confronting the “existential threat” it now claims as Riyadh and its partners rewire the region’s deterrence.
A reality Israel feared three decades ago
Israel’s regional adventurism has turned its 1990s fears into 2025 reality. The very deterrent it sought to prevent, Pakistan functioning as part of a nuclear umbrella effect for the Arab world under Saudi leadership, is taking shape in response to Israel’s actions.
This is more than a shift in military equations. It is a re-drafting of regional strategy. Whether this becomes the foundation of a credible collective security order or accelerates a slide toward wider war now depends on Riyadh, Islamabad, Washington, and Tel Aviv. One thing is certain: the age of Israeli impunity is over, and a new nuclear calculus has arrived in the Gulf.
