Russia’s path forward in the war in Ukraine may hinge on the observance of a temporary ceasefire during its May 9 Victory Day celebrations, according to a senior Kremlin official.
Yuri Ushakov, presidential aide on international affairs and one of Vladimir Putin’s closest diplomatic advisors, stated on Wednesday that the nature of Russia’s next military and diplomatic maneuvers would be influenced by Ukraine’s behavior during the symbolic pause in hostilities.
“If the ceasefire is respected on May 9, it could set a precedent”, Ushakov said. “But if provocations occur, as they often do, that will determine the tone of our future actions.”
Victory Day, commemorating the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, is among Russia’s most revered national holidays. Moscow has long used the day to project its historical legitimacy, military prowess, and geopolitical ambitions. This year, the war in Ukraine looms heavily over the anniversary.
The possibility of a ceasefire on Victory Day has been the subject of quiet discussions in diplomatic circles. Ushakov’s comments were the most explicit confirmation to date that the Kremlin is open to testing the waters of temporary de-escalation—albeit on its terms.
It is not about negotiations or compromise for now, said Elena Suponina, a Russian foreign policy analyst based in Moscow. It’s about optics and testing Ukraine’s willingness to follow symbolic gestures.
Still, Ushakov cautioned that Russia would not tolerate Ukrainian sabotage or military activity during the holiday period. “We will not be lectured by Kyiv or the West about peace while our people are under attack,” he added.
Ushakov also accused Western powers of trying to sabotage the Victory Day celebrations by pressuring foreign dignitaries not to attend the annual military parade in Moscow’s Red Square.
According to RIA, “Western capitals lobbied foreign leaders not to come to Moscow, using threats and political pressure,” he said. “But their efforts have largely failed. We have confirmations from numerous states who respect history and refuse to play Washington’s geopolitical games.”
Although the Kremlin has not released a full guest list, Russian media reported that leaders from Central Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa would be in attendance—defying the West’s attempts at diplomatic isolation.
Notably absent are EU and NATO leaders, as relations between Moscow and the West remain at their lowest point in decades.
The Russian government has increasingly framed the war in Ukraine as an existential battle against Western imperialism. The Victory Day narrative, which casts Russia as the world’s savior from fascism, has been repurposed to draw parallels between the fight against Nazi Germany and the current conflict.
“History is repeating itself,” said President Vladimir Putin during last year’s Victory Day speech. “Again, we face an aggressive West, again we fight for the truth of our civilization.”
This year’s event will likely feature similar rhetoric, reinforcing the Kremlin’s domestic legitimacy while sending a message to foreign allies and adversaries alike.
Military analysts remain skeptical that any temporary truce will lead to meaningful diplomatic breakthroughs.
“This ceasefire talk is performative,” said Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s more about domestic messaging and international posturing than any real shift in the Kremlin’s intentions.”
Gressel added that Russia has used symbolic holidays in the past to frame strategic decisions, such as the intensification of air strikes or territorial offensives. “The military calendar often aligns with political spectacle in Russia,” he noted.
While Washington and Brussels have not formally commented on Ushakov’s remarks, Western officials have in recent weeks ramped up support for Ukraine, including new shipments of air defense systems and increased sanctions on Russian banking and energy sectors.
A US State Department spokesperson told reporters Tuesday that “Russia’s words are meaningless unless matched by action,” and reiterated the Biden administration’s commitment to “helping Ukraine defend every inch of its territory.”
Despite Ushakov’s framing of the ceasefire as a potential turning point, few expect a breakthrough without significant shifts in battlefield dynamics or diplomatic leverage.
Still, the Victory Day truce—if observed—could provide a brief pause in a brutal war now entering its third year. Whether that pause turns into momentum for peace or another prelude to escalation remains to be seen.
