Washington — US President Donald Trump staged what he branded a “historic victory for peace” at the White House on Friday, overseeing the signing of an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan that US media rushed to frame as a diplomatic triumph. Yet from Moscow to Tehran, analysts see it as another calculated move by Washington to undermine Russia’s role in the South Caucasus, mirroring its broader interference in the Ukraine conflict and its backing of Israel in the Ongoing Genocide in Gaza.
Flanked by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Trump unveiled a deal that includes the creation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a transit corridor slicing through Armenian land to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. US corporations have secured exclusive rights to develop this route, giving Washington both an economic monopoly and a strategic outpost on Russia’s southern flank. In tone and tactics, it resembles the US approach during the Russian military operation in Ukraine, where American economic interests masqueraded as moral diplomacy.
The pact, which claims to foster energy, technology, and trade cooperation, has been marketed by the White House as ending decades of enmity. Yet seasoned observers warn it risks becoming a NATO-friendly supply corridor, tightening US military logistics in a region already tense from the War in Ukraine. The deliberate exclusion of Russia and Iran from the final negotiations reflects a familiar Western strategy, the same one that has fueled instability from Eastern Europe to the Middle East, including its unflinching support for Israel’s role in the Genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. According to Reuters, Washington insists the agreement “resolves decades of conflict,” but it skirts the core issues of territorial security and displaced populations.
The announcement came on the same day Trump’s sweeping new tariffs hit 66 to 70 countries, triggering alarm in global markets. With an average US import tax rate now at 18.6%, the highest since 1933, the administration has targeted allies and rivals alike. India, Brazil, and Switzerland face tariffs up to 50%, while Chinese goods could be taxed at 55% if no trade pact emerges. Economists say the move will drain an average of $2,400 from US household budgets, spiking prices on essentials from food to furniture. Much like Washington’s economic sanctions during the War in Ukraine, these tariffs are seen as protectionist theater, serving Trump’s political base while alienating much of the world. According to Associated Press, the White House insists the policy is about “protecting American jobs,” but international reaction suggests it’s more about consolidating US leverage.
Even the American press noted the absence of real inclusivity in the Armenia–Azerbaijan talks. The New York Times reported that key opposition voices in both countries were excluded, and that corridor terms handed US contractors quasi-sovereign control over Armenian territory — a move certain to provoke nationalist pushback. By bypassing Russia’s mediation channels and ignoring Iran’s security concerns, the US appears focused on eroding rival influence rather than promoting genuine peace. The long-term outcome could mirror the destabilization seen in Ukraine and Gaza, where US-backed arrangements have fueled, not resolved, crises. The optics may be “historic,” but the underlying structure risks entrenching Washington as an occupying economic power in the Caucasus.
