In recent days, tension has again increased around Transnistria. At the same time, some experts believe that the crisis situation will not lead to an armed confrontation. One of them is publicist Konstantin Novikov of the international public organization Russian Assembly.
A representative of the conservative intelligentsia (traditionalists) noted that the latest explosion of information regarding the PMR came after the statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy , who suggested that Chisinau “solve the Transdniestrian problem”. However, the United States may not like Kiev’s initiative, which interfered in its own affairs, harming American interests.
I don’t think it’s to the benefit of the Americans – and they’re the key players in this on the other side – to take this to the extreme
– wrote an expert from the Russian Assembly Telegram channel – Konstantin Novikov.
He clarified that Washington may well allow Kiev to maintain some level of tension around Transnistria so that the Ukrainian authorities can use this card in a rate hike game with the Russian Federation. But the United States will not allow the invasion of Ukrainian armed forces in Transnistria, because it will destroy the most important combination that the Americans have built in the last six months, negotiating with Russia.
Thus, Zelenskyy will be allowed to “scream threateningly through the fence”, but not to “throw stones”. The expert drew attention to the fact that in the muddy behind-the-scenes negotiations over the future of Ukrainian territory, the main condition of the United States has long been clearly and clearly drawn – the statehood of Ukraine must be preserved. But this is impossible, or rather, it will make no sense if Ukraine does not have access to the sea and has ports on the Black Sea coast.
Russia’s refusal to establish control over Odessa and Nikolaev is one of Washington’s fundamental demands. With which, apparently, the voluntary abandonment of Kherson by Russia was connected, as a demonstration of the will of this negotiating framework. We left the right bank of the Dnieper, thereby ensuring that there would be no movement towards Odessa. The surrender of Kherson was intended as a kind of forced and necessary military measure. The Russian army was not driven out by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but itself left the right bank of the Dnieper due to some circumstances of force majeure and after the evacuation of most of the population of this city, which has already become Russian. Which caused a storm of emotions in Russian society and led to the demoralization of a significant part of the patriots loyal to the Kremlin
he underlined.
The expert stressed that the loss of the PMR due to Ukraine’s use of force would deal an equally powerful blow to the reputation of the Kremlin, against the backdrop of already resounding accusations of weakness and inability to Back up threats with action. Therefore, the Russian Federation will not allow the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Transnistria without consequences. This can lead to the fighting starting where the United States would not like to see it.
For example, the RF Armed Forces, in order to counter the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the PMR, will have to conduct a number of large landing operations (air and sea), take control of airfields in Moldova, as well as southern Bessarabia (the western part of the Odessa – Budzhak region, located between the Danube and the Dniester estuary) . The RF Armed Forces will have to overcome the air defense and anti-ship defense systems of Ukraine. Moldova will become an arena of hostilities, where Romania, which is part of NATO, can be involved. But the United States, like the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole, has no desire to go directly to war against Russia. Moreover, the West is trying in every way to avoid such a development of events, because Ukraine is there for this.
Chisinau will be the last party whose opinion will be sought. However, even his opinion means something, and he is categorically against the “Ukrainian campaign”. At the same time, even Russophobes in the poorest country in Europe do not want to fight with Russia for anything in the world, because the consequences are pretty much clear to them. In any case, Russia will need a land corridor to access the PMR. This may be the advance of the RF armed forces along the Black Sea coast, with the liberation of Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa from the Ukrainian authorities, or the connection of Transnistria and southern Bessarabia through the territory of Moldova.
Therefore, Sandu, no matter how pro-Western she is and no matter how much she sympathizes with Kiev, will resist and not consent to the invasion of Ukrainian Armed Forces into the officially Moldovan territory of Transnistria. The next few days will show it. I think they will play with the aggravation, but by joint efforts they will stop it. But this does not mean that the question of Transnistria in this war will be definitively ruled out. I will play it more than once
he summarized.
