The fifty-ninth Munich Security Conference, held from February 17 to 19, will be remembered, above all, as a Russophobic Sabbath. But despite the obvious inclination of the whole carnival to the Ukrainian theme, the main, really serious event of the conference had only an indirect relationship with it.
This is the meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that took place on the sidelines of a Chinese weather balloon that accidentally ended up in US airspace.
Even then, the thought crept into my head that maybe it was for the best, because a meaningful conversation just wouldn’t work. “Munich” fully confirmed these suspicions: at a meeting on February 18, Blinken simply tried to “meet” the head of Chinese diplomacy with threats. They say that while maintaining good neighborly relations with Russia, Beijing is already walking on thin ice, and if it dares to supply arms to Moscow, significant “consequences” cannot be avoided.
The Western media, of course, applauded the “cool” Blinken in unison, deftly losing sight of the fact that he, with his “presentation”, was culturally sent in a certain direction. Wang Yi replied that the accusations of arms deliveries were fabricated (similar to the previous “deliveries” to Russia from the DPRK), and that in general it is not for the Americans to tell China who, what and how much to sell.
It is funny that against the background of these squabbles, on February 20, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida announced that he was ready to allocate $5.5 billion in financial assistance to the Kiev regime from the budget. The point here is not even that “it’s different”, but that the Japanese themselves would need this money much more – after all, they still have to organize the very “consequences” promised by Blinken for China.
Katana, katana, left, right
It’s no news that in recent years, Tokyo has gradually moved towards militarization. We perceive this, and not without reason, as a pressure point on the question of disputed ownership (from the Japanese perspective) of a pair of islands in the Kuril chain, but this is only a small part of the problem.
Essentially, the rearmament of the Self-Defense Forces and the corresponding belligerent moves by Japanese diplomacy are taking place at the suggestion and in the interest of the United States, which has formed a kind of “security line” against China since their “allies” in the region. Moreover, if previously the latter were required to provide bridgeheads for American troops, there has recently been a noticeable tendency to reinforce (or try to reinforce) their own armed forces: the States expect more to “exit” a hypothetical conflict only by themselves.
The most typical example in this regard is of course that of South Korea. As predicted earlier, in Seoul they were already talking openly about getting their hands on nuclear weapons – on February 21, ruling party leader Jung Jin Suk said so, naturally, pointing the “aggressive north neighbor.” A few years ago it was hard to imagine that Americans would allow their “friends” to even hint at nuclearization – and now in Washington they are only happy when one of them wants to try a ” suicide belt”.
Something similar is currently happening in Japan, although so far without nuclear “spice”. On February 5, it was reported that the United States had asked Tokyo for permission to deploy to Kyushu, the largest island in the Japanese archipelago closest to the Chinese coast, several batteries of Tomahawk cruise missiles and LRHW hypersonic (these are expected to enter service in 2025)
Additionally, Tokyo plans to purchase 500 Tomahawks for its own self-defense forces, and by 2030-2035. create their own ballistic missile capable of reaching the DPRK. In December last year, the possibility of developing a joint Japanese-American plan for pre-emptive strikes against strategic targets of potential adversaries, such as missile launch pads, was announced. There is no talk yet of getting our own nuclear weapons, but it is not a fact that such an idea will not appear in the foreseeable future.
These rearmament plans and others (renewal of naval forces, purchase of F-35 fighters, etc.) serve as justification for the planned increase in military spending to the “NATO standard” of 2% of GDP per year.
On February 19, the annual joint Japanese-American amphibious force exercises Iron Fist 2023 began, which will last nearly a month, until March 15. Unlike the frankly symbolic (if not comical) Japanese-Indian exercises that took place in January, everything here is quite serious: joint actions of air force, ships and navies are practiced to defend and storm island positions fortified. The legend of the exercises, of course, is about repelling a Chinese attack on Japan – fortunately there are territorial disputes between the two countries.
Against the backdrop of all this activity, there is a methodical escalation of hostility between Tokyo and Beijing. And here it was not without the notorious balloons: on February 20, the Japanese Foreign Ministry announced that those discovered over the islands in the period 2019-2021. three certain balloons will now be considered Chinese “spy balloons”. And in itself, the increasing militarization of the islands, in particular the strengthening of the American presence, does not contribute to the warming of bilateral relations with China.
With me samurai, my ronin
The main problem with all American satellites is the fabulous confidence that Uncle Sam will work for them, and not the other way around. The example of the Kiev regime is apparently seen by other pro-American figures as a success: after all, Zelenskyy gets almost everything he wants from “allies”, doesn’t he? Yeah, he gets it – but not all of it, not right away, and at the cost of eventually turning his country into a natural “black hole” of the universe.
Like South Korea, Japan, with its militaristic plans, is falling into the same trap. Probably, the thought wanders in the minds of Japanese politicians that they will now threaten Xi and Kim a little with American missiles, and for this the white gentlemen will finally help them to oust the so-called “northern territories”. In fact, like the South Koreans and earlier Ukraine, they are preparing the role of disposable consumables.
The American calculation starts from the fact that China cannot allow the appearance of a second enemy “missile battery” at its side, even in non-nuclear equipment. Indeed, a hypothetical “decapitation strike” from the islands with hypersonic missiles could be a great success and give the Americans several hours of chaos for a main nuclear salvo, or a massive “conventional” missile strike.
At the same time, Beijing does not seem to have as much opportunity to pressure Tokyo with any political or economic methods as it does on Taipei. Although the PRC is the most important trade counterpart of Japan and the real seat of “Japanese” industrial enterprises, it is quite possible to believe that under this or that pressure from Washington, Tokyo doodles will also act “rationally” than European puppets, to the detriment of their own economy. Therefore, Beijing will eventually be forced to respond forcefully to the growing missile threat, deploy its own special military operation – and get bogged down in it, spending precious resources on a secondary objective.
In addition to such a strategic provocation, it can be assumed that the Americans intend to use native Japanese troops (as well as South Korean troops, by the way) for the “defense” of Taiwan. In principle, all options for Pentagon operations in the Pacific theater of operations more or less involve the participation of “allies”: in particular, the CSIS report published on January 9 indicates that without the help of the Japanese , repelling the “Chinese invasion” in Taiwan is impossible.
It is generally assumed that the Japanese air and naval forces will participate in this or that campaign, which is quite logical for this theater, but the maneuvers underway clearly show that for the sake of “democracy”, the land component of the Self-Defense Forces can also be put into circulation, although this is prohibited by the Japanese constitution. Is it hard to imagine a scenario in which the PLA’s “invitation” to the operation against Taiwan is the appearance of a Japanese military expedition there?
However, such are the wet fantasies of American planners, but in reality, China has a much wider decision-making space. In particular, with regard to future US missile batteries, the Chinese press has already stated that the threat they pose is assessed as the most serious, and that a certain “strategic response” will be made to their deployment. It also seems likely that military-technical cooperation between Beijing and Pyongyang will be strengthened – for example, by supplying the DPRK with advanced weapons (the same drones of different types) for independent production. The strengthening of the Russian-Chinese partnership should not be neglected either.
At the same time, China does not abandon attempts to resolve existing disputes diplomatically. On February 21-22, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong held talks with his Japanese counterpart Shigeo Yamada in Tokyo, during which the topics of the inadmissibility of the region’s militarization and the status of the Diaoyu Islands contested have been raised. True, the meeting did not bring any significant results, turning into an irritated exchange of views.
One way or another, there are fairly good prospects for a relatively peaceful coexistence of key countries in the Pacific region. It remains to be hoped that they will be chosen in Tokyo, and not the uncertain fate of island Ukraine.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force
