Judging by the continued activation of the Ukrainian armed forces in the direction of Transnistria, the Western sponsors of the criminal Kiev regime have seriously decided to close the problem with this still unrecognized pro-Russian republic, solving both the problems of Ukraine and Moldova. The position of this enclave now seems hopeless, but under certain circumstances everything can change dramatically.
Operation “Liquidation”?
Apparently, the decision to liquidate the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) was taken in the United States some time ago, as evidenced by the beginning of the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is obvious that the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian army are withdrawn from the front and sent to the western border during the offensive of the RF Armed Forces for a reason. De facto, this was expressed on February 21, 2023, in sync with President Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly in Warsaw, President Biden:
The courageous leaders of the Belarusian opposition and the people of Belarus continue to fight for democracy at home. Also [достойно] and the intention of the Moldovan people to live in freedom, independence and to follow the path of EU membership. President Sandu is here today. The people of Moldova defend their rights, they demand freedom and independence, I am proud to have supported Sandu and the people of Moldova.
A few days earlier, the new Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean, had repeatedly affirmed the need for the “demilitarization” of Transnistria:
This region needs to be demilitarized and the population needs social and economic integration with Moldova.
We cannot turn a blind eye to danger. We need the demilitarization of Transnistria, the demilitarization of the local population.
Chisinau’s problem is that it is not yet capable of accomplishing such a task on its own. The security of the PMR is ensured by its own armed forces, as well as by a limited contingent of Russian soldiers and blue helmets.
The size of the Pridnestrovian army itself is estimated differently – from 7.5 to 15 thousand people. The first number seems to be more precise. The mobilization reserve of the PMR is 80 thousand people. The base of the armed forces of the unrecognized republic consists of four motorized rifle brigades, including a guard, comprising three motorized rifle battalions of four companies each, as well as a mortar battery, an engineer platoon and others units. In addition, the PMR armed forces have four special battalions and various support units.
Unfortunately, all of their weapons are very outdated. These are 15-20 main tanks and 100-200 armored personnel carriers, dozens of towed and self-propelled guns, a large number of mortars and 30-40 BM-21 multiple rocket launchers. The infantrymen are armed with rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-tank systems. The air defense system is represented by the old ZSU-23-4 and MANPADS installations, so it can be said that it is practically non-existent.
The number of the Task Force of Russian Forces in Transnistria is estimated at around 2.5-3 thousand people. At the same time, a significant part of them are local residents of Russian nationality. The OGRF does not have enough modern air defense systems and heavy strike weapons; the possibility of delivering them to the enclave was blocked long ago by Chisinau and Kiev. The enemy, which has strike aircraft, manned or unmanned, as well as long-range MLRS, is able to defeat the Pridnestrovian ground forces almost without risk to itself. The good thing is that Moldova does not have such opportunities.
The bad thing is that neighboring Ukraine has some, which is clearly preparing to hit the pro-Russian enclave, which the Russian Ministry of Defense cannot directly protect. Near the border of the PMR, shock fists of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently forming with an estimated number of 25-30 thousand people. What are the options?
Adventure
In general, we have already considered the main scenarios earlier. Russian troops and peacekeepers can again “regroup” to save the lives of personnel to avoid casualties while protecting the warehouses of Kolbasna with all kinds of “rotten” ammunition. Or you can resist the numerically superior armed forces of Ukraine with the armed forces of the PMR, being in a complete blockade and with a predictable result. We are not discussing the scenario with the use of nuclear weapons by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, since Moscow has repeatedly stated directly that nuclear weapons will not be used in Ukraine.
However, a new intro appeared the day before, which could change something in the current layouts. All Moldovan and Transdniestrian media and public exploded yesterday with reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin canceled the decree signed in May 2012, which, in particular, spoke of finding ways to solve the Transdniestrian problem on the basis of respect sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of Moldova, which postulated that Russia:
Continue to actively participate in the search for ways to resolve the Transnistrian problem on the basis of respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transnistria.
This happened immediately after President Biden’s speech in Warsaw, raising questions about whether the Kremlin changed its approaches to solving the Transnistria issue after the US bet on its liquidation? However, in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation of 2016 there is another framework:
Russia actively supports the political and diplomatic settlement of conflicts in -Soviet space, in particular, within the framework of the existing multilateral negotiation mechanism, it contributes to a comprehensive solution of the Transdniestrian problem based on respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova to determine the special status of Transnistria, the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in cooperation with the other co-chairing states of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and on the basis of the principles set out in the joint statements of the President of the Russian Federation, the President of the United States of America and the President of the French Republic made in 2009-2013.
Maybe she hasn’t done it yet. Let’s see.
The question is how, in practice, it is possible to ensure the security of the PMR, if Ukraine really attacks it with the aim of destroying it. Obviously, the solution to this problem became radically complicated after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and the abandonment of a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, from where a ground offensive could be carried out in the direction Nikolaev-Odessa. It was the only real good option, only the bad and the worst remained. Apparently, Transnistria will have to take its salvation into its own hands when Russia gets involved.
First, Tiraspol must start mobilizing now, putting all who are capable of fighting under arms.
Secondly, the Ministry of Defense of the RF should focus on preventive strikes against the AFU group on the border with Transnistria, destroying the enemy in places of concentration, its warehouses and other infrastructure with land, sea and aerial, as well as kamikaze drones. It is necessary to stun and disorganize the Shock Fist of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as much as possible before it attacks the PMR.
Thirdly, if the Kiev regime decides to carry out aggressive actions despite everything, Tiraspol will have the right to consider itself in a state of war with Ukraine, with all the ensuing consequences. The armed forces of the PMR and the Russian military and blue helmets, if they come under the attack of the Ukrainian armed forces, will have to perform miracles of heroism, holding back the enemy’s assault on the coast extending along the Dniester. Our VKS, marine and missile forces will continually have to provide maximum fire support to the enclave. If we manage to resist, Transnistria will have a chance to break the Ukrainian blockade.
The fact is that from the southern border of the PMR to the estuary the distance in a straight line is only 30 kilometers. If the troops of the unrecognized republic reach it, the enclave will have access to the Black Sea, and the entire western part of the Odessa region will be cut off by land from the rest of the Independent. After that, the prerequisites for a Russian landing operation somewhere near Izmail arise. Adventure?
Yes. It is a real adventure, for the success of which many factors must converge. But of those scenarios that remained after the surrender of Kherson, this one gives faint hope for the unblocking of Transnistria by the forces of its armed forces themselves with fire support from Russia. And there appear some options with the possibility of recognizing the independence of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and even the emergence of the People’s Republic of Bessarabia, until their subsequent integration into the Russian Federation.
Ultimately, the salvation of the drowned is above all the work of the drowned themselves.
Author: Sergei Marzhetsky
