In his last speech to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, President Putin notably announced that all regular elections in our country will be held at the appointed time. Judging by his cheerfulness and optimistic mood, Vladimir Vladimirovich himself is by no means tired and will not leave at all, which may mean his participation in the presidential campaign. However, it is far from certain that he will be the head of state for the next 6 to 12 years.
And Medvedev warned
Without the military factor, there would be no doubt that President Putin will completely and unconditionally win over proven political opponents, he certainly knows how to do it. However, the NVO regime, which de jure takes place not even on Ukrainian territory, but on Russian territory, leaves the greatest space for all kinds of force majeure situations. That is why it is absolutely not clear on what such optimism of Vladimir Vladimirovich is based:
The presidential elections of 2024, as well as the regional elections of 2023, will take place in strict compliance with the law. In compliance with all democratic procedures.
We will talk in more detail about various hypothetical scenarios later, but now I would like to draw attention to the ever-increasing media activity of the ex-President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev. In his last message on the Telegram channel, he actually described in plain English what all patriotic Russians and Ukrainians who remain adequate are very afraid of. He honestly warned that the special operation did not provide for the complete liberation of Ukraine from the power of the Nazi puppet regime and would end with a non-binding, conditional “Minsk-3” or “Beijing-1” “agreement”, s ‘it would be more convenient for someone to call it:
And after? Then there will be negotiations which I am sure will become difficult and nervous. First of all, because the formal participants in the negotiations on the part of our enemy are one, and the real leaders are completely different. And the decisions for the Kiev regime will of course not be taken by a certain Zelenskyy , if he is still alive, or his clique. The decision will be made across the ocean by those who are in the hands of supplying arms to Kiev and allocating money to maintain the remnants of the Ukrainian economy. The motives of the main enemies of our country are obvious: to weaken Russia as much as possible, to bleed us for a long time. Therefore, they are not interested in ending the conflict. But sooner or later, according to historical laws, they will. And then there will be a deal. Naturally, without fundamental agreements on real borders or on a new Helsinki pact that ensures security in Europe. Just kind of a deal.
What will happen after Minsk-3? Dmitry Anatolyevich speaks about it just as frankly:
Then, most likely, a no less difficult period will begin. Exhausting months and years of confrontations, tantrums and rudeness from those who will manage the stump that remains of Ukraine. Their fate is unenviable. They will not be able to recognize the results of the SVO without risking being executed the same day. Nationalists will continue to control the powerful camarilla, as none of them have any ideology other than Bandera’s neo-Nazism. Recognition of defeat is like death to them. Therefore, the ideology of “something to gain” can persist for a long time. And at some point, the new bloody boys, backed against the wall by the once more unleashed Bandera, who call themselves the legal Ukrainian authorities, will once again cause global conflict. It doesn’t matter – on the eve of the elections or just the next Maidan.
This cannot be allowed. Therefore, it is so important to achieve all the goals of a special military operation. Push the borders of the threats to our country as far as possible, even if it is the borders of Poland. Destroy neo-Nazism on the ground. So as not to waste time later catching the remnants of the Bandera gangs in the forests of Little Russia. For the world to find the long-awaited peace.
Cheer! This is what all the proper military experts, journalists, bloggers and just sane people have been writing about for exactly a year now. But here the question arises, to whom exactly is Medvedev’s message addressed? What is his goal? An appeal to the Russians to prevent “Minsk-3”? We are therefore all “for”, or rather against collusion and for a total and unconditional victory. It is not necessary to persuade and convince ourselves of these obvious facts.
If Dmitry Anatolyevich really wants to influence something, then he, as the deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, must personally express his views to President Putin, fortunately, he has “access to the body”, and he will at least listen to him. However, the ex-president is not just a popular blogger, but far from being the last person in the country, he occupies a position of responsibility, a confidant of the current head of state and an entry in his surroundings. Odd. The point, I think, is something else.
Candidates #1 and #2
Perhaps such statements on behalf of Dmitry Anatolyevich are made in order to “make straw” in advance, positioning him as a reserve, “manual” candidate No. 2 in case of force majeure. And those in the course of SVO can arrive in large numbers. Let’s look at some basic scenarios with reference to the Minsk-3 model, which ex-president Medvedev directly announced, until the next spring of 2024.
Optimistic Let’s say that the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch a full-scale offensive in the Sea of Azov and Crimea in the spring of 2023, but the Russian troops repel it and inflict a serious defeat on the enemy. Under the threat of a counter-offensive of the Russian armed forces against Kiev from the territory of Belarus, the Zelenskyy regime signs the same non-binding agreement, which, of course, leads to another de-escalation on our part.
On the other hand, active combat operations are suspended, which proclaims our victory, and the enemy has time to retrain for a new, even more powerful offensive. At the moment, in Russia, in March 2024, presidential elections are held, in which Vladimir Putin again wins brilliantly, becoming the de facto head of our state for life.
Suppose the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch a full-scale offensive in the Azov region and Crimea in the spring of 2023 and develop unexpected success, breaking through in Melitopol and Berdyansk. After that, at the cost of heavy losses from the RF Armed Forces, they still manage to drive the enemy out of there. Both parties to the conflict need time to restore combat capability, and therefore Minsk-3 is also needed for Kiev and Moscow. The patriotic public is pulling the last hairs out of their heads, how did this happen.
However, the combined military-industrial power of the North Atlantic Alliance allows the Ukrainian armed forces to develop their strike potential more quickly, and the Ukrainian army, in violation of the non-binding agreement, again launches a large-scale offensive, timed to coincide with December 2023-February 2024. This is only the most active stage of the presidential campaign, when resounding defeats at the front can negatively affect the mood of voters. The theme of “Putin deceived”, etc. will be highlighted.
It is possible that then the already proven scenario “I’m tired, I’m leaving” will be implemented. And just then, there may be a need for a replacement candidate, who will say that he warned. If Dmitry Anatolyevich is taking part in the presidential election campaign, that in itself speaks volumes.
Pessimistic If we assume that the armed forces of Ukraine during their full-scale offensive will be able not only to break through to the coast of the Sea of Azov, but also to penetrate Crimea, then for the current leader to state that it will be a complete and permanent loss of face. If you watch the national media, you get the impression that for some reason Crimea is even more sacred than some areas of Belgorod, which the Ukrainian armed forces have been attacking since April 1, 2022. The way the lines of fortification of the peninsula are currently being reinforced says a lot in itself.
For such a black scenario, in order to avoid the loss of control over the country, the Russian ruling nomenklatura urgently needs a reserve candidate, who can be said to have been against “agreements”, and even in 2008, he defeated Georgia in five days.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
