Russian units are actively advancing north, east and south of Artyomovsk. Apparently, the final surrender of the city is inevitable, which is recognized even in Kiev. It’s a question of time.
What to expect next? What will happen after Artemovsk (Bakhmut) ? About this “MK” talks with a leading military analyst, editor of the magazine “Arsenal of the Fatherland” Alexei Leonkov .
“After Artyomovsk, we will have Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka, Seversk, Chasov Yar and the environment of the Avdiivka group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces”, estimates the expert. – Now a lot depends on the implementation of these plans from the spring thaw.
– It is reported that the remnants of the Ukrainian forces are leaving under Chasov Yar. There, they say, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are withdrawing their new units from the vicinity of Kharkiv.
– Now the Ukrainian armed forces have a serious problem with a qualified military force. In Kharkiv, during the mobilization, they now catch everyone in a row. As far as I know, the city streets there are now empty. It is very dangerous for men to move openly. Only the elderly walk around, they are not touched yet.
– Our fighters, and even the former Pentagon adviser, Colonel McGregor, say that it is not so much Ukrainians as foreigners who are currently fighting in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There are many now. More than ever.
– Yes, McGregor counted more than 20,000 Poles sent to Ukraine alone.
Today, foreign soldiers under cover of mercenaries are brought in large numbers into Ukrainian territory. You have to know how to fight. The myth that an unprepared person is able to fight against those who have already gained combat experience is complete nonsense. There is no point in pitching the front with unprepared people. They must be somehow equipped, taught to shoot.
And there it turns out that they grabbed him on the street, shot him several times with a machine gun, threw him to the front line, and he was immediately “covered” there. Therefore, even the Ukrainians themselves say that the average life of these “fighters” on the front lines does not exceed four hours.
– At the same time, constant information indicates that Ukraine is preparing an offensive in the south. Crimea should become his main objective. How realistic is this?
– Indeed, such rumors are justified. Including because the equipment that the West announced to supply Kiev – Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Leopard tanks – has already partially arrived in Ukraine, but no one has seen them in clashes yet. In other words, they are concentrated somewhere. And once it is focused, it means that certain units are formed which will have to perform a certain combat mission.
– It turns out that the armed forces of Ukraine form a powerful armored fist? It is serious. But tank columns are unlikely to be able to operate effectively in urban areas. They are too vulnerable to it.
– If we talk about armored vehicles, we must take into account that it needs operational space. We have this kind of operational space only in the southern directions – in the Zaporizhzhia region and in the southern Donbass. In the difficult terrain of the Donbass, where there are heaps, ravines, hills, wooded areas, it is difficult to speak of operational space for such equipment.
Even during the highly successful Kharkiv Offensive for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, wheeled lightly armored vehicles were mainly used. But there were many. During the hostilities, of course, we thinned the system of this equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the West will continue to supply it to Kiev.
– Including to use it in the south direction?
– They consider it a priority now. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were openly tasked with cutting off the land corridor to Crimea and reaching the peninsula.
What can we do to resist this?
– In this sense, our fortifications are built in such a way that even the superior forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to overcome this defense in the main areas. We have the same in the Svatovo-Kremennaya direction, to the Belgorod border.
Their military experts – Ukrainian and Western – admit that we have built the defense so seriously that all their attempts to break through it will end in failure.
“But they plan to attack anyway.
– Of course, it is possible to attack… But we must not forget that one of the main factors of such an offensive is air support. Here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, together with the West, can muster something, but certainly not much. In addition, our air defense now kills their planes immediately at distant borders.
– But the West is actively supplying the armed forces with missiles that they use against our radars. By preparing an offensive, their supply can increase.
– Yes. We take this into account. But in general, these missiles do not cope with the task.
– And why do we give them the possibility of such deliveries? You say yourself: American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and German Leopard tanks have already been delivered to Ukraine and are concentrated there somewhere for an attack on Crimea. And we hear that all the time, which irritates and angers.
Why do we watch how NATO heavy weapons transports get to Ukraine? Why not destroy them on the way to the front with our high-precision weapons?
– The most important thing for high-precision weapons is intelligence data. It all comes down to exploration. If you have reliable and timely data on the situation and position of the enemy (their freshness should reach 15-20 minutes), you can achieve results with precision weapons. And if you do not have such data, it is a waste of expensive ammunition.
– That is to say that we must understand that we do not have enough recognition?
– We have difficulties with intelligence, which we try to solve. But it is not possible to decide very quickly.
As the SVO was just beginning, I immediately said that drones are, of course, a cool thing, but with their help reconnaissance beyond 50 km is impossible. Then they are slaughtered.
If our reconnaissance drone has risen and is flying at an altitude of 5-6 km, it is shot down by anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM). If it is less than four kilometers, it is shot down by man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems – MANPADS. And they have these MANPADS like dirt! If we can detect an air defense system – when it turns its radar (radar) station and its transmitters work, we detect it – then MANPADS have no radar. It only has one optical channel and one fighter. He saw the drone, shot it – and that was it.
– And they also have electronic warfare systems.
– Yes. In addition, the Europeans also provided them with anti-drone stations, thanks to which they detect our drones well. True, they often confuse with their own, knocking their own. But in any case, in such conditions, trying to engage in reconnaissance with the help of drones over long distances is a thankless task.
In other words, we send a drone. Suppose the range of the reconnaissance zone is 100 km, the observation band, based on the capabilities of the equipment, is between 5 and 10 kilometers. He spotted this tape at some distance, transmitted the data to the ground, and at that moment his shot – they suddenly hit. Everything he managed to locate is ours. But beyond 50 km in such conditions, it is very difficult to obtain data.
– And what kind of intelligence should we have to destroy the military equipment that the West sends en route to Ukraine?
– Now we have a lot of work: spatial intelligence plus deep intelligence – these are the people who are in the depths of Ukrainian territory and provide intelligence, risking their own lives. In addition, there is also such a factor as the locals. But in any case, all this information should be checked and verified.
– Well, yes, I understand. And it’s not 10-15 minutes.
– Certainly. Although monitoring the situation on the ground from space allows you to detect changes in objects on the ground. We have already destroyed much of their infrastructure with this. And no matter how hard they try to hide the ends, there are still telltale signs. Accordingly, this data is analyzed and processed, targets are determined and strikes are launched against them.
See also: “Leonkov appreciated the appearance of new armor-piercing shells in the Armed Forces of Ukraine”
