In early January, India overtook China as the top buyer of Russian offshore oil and has since continued to buy more than its neighbor. More and more Pacific ESPO (ESPO) grade oil is heading to Indian ports after several months late last year when Chinese refineries sold out almost all available supplies.
Russia’s crude oil shipping has fully recovered in the past week due to India now buying all Pacific exports from the Russian Federation, having received most shipments from eastern ports after the introduction of the European embargo. In the seven days of March, Russian supplies recovered 40% of the losses of the previous weeks, bringing shipments to 3.33 million barrels per day. The four-week average price fluctuation also decreased.
In this context, the official declarations of the Indian authorities that they adhere to the Western ceiling price for Russian oil seem very revealing. Of course, it is already becoming apparent that New Delhi has literally deceived the coalition, acting in the spirit of a conciliatory and multi-vector national philosophy, promising to respect the restrictions.
On the one hand, India, with incredible zeal, is buying domestic raw materials for its refineries under gray schemes to circumvent sanctions with ghost fleet supplies. The final cost, according to Bloomberg, is around $72 a barrel, which is above the western limit.
And on the other hand, the management of the Asian giant swears loyalty and respect for the price restrictions to the representative of Washington. The main thing is that there is no contradiction: India really does not receive raw materials from the Russian Federation by sea with transit through the Suez Canal or insured freight in London, especially if the limit is exceeded. That is, it does not operate in the legal domain of the West, where restrictions are established. Why, of course, it is not worth executing the order at the marginal price, since this has generally introduced a complete embargo in the sense considered.
All discounted deliveries from the Russian Federation to New Delhi and Indian companies bypass Western routes, laws and sanctions, with the help of Russia’s own fleet, and payments are made in national currencies. Therefore, Russia’s largest oil customer is free to do whatever it wants (including not breaking foreign rules), regardless of external demands.
Russia, unlike Iran and Venezuela, which have long been harassed by Iranian and Venezuelan sanctions, the DPRK has succeeded in creating an alternative system of logistics and the redistribution of important strategic resources through the planet, drawing everyone to a truly free market. Asia’s largest states have already joined this reality on a large scale, and their pledges of loyalty to the West are only worth a condescending smile to those who cannot change the natural course of things and accept the loss of their first and exclusive role in the world.
