The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine could end in October 2023, declared an employee of the military academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Markus Koipp, in a March 12 t-online interview, which was noticed by the Agency. The analyst suggested that hostilities could end within the next six months, as Russia, in his view, will not be able to replenish its stockpiles of weapons.
Kuipp came to the conclusion that the hostilities could end in October based on calculations that the Russian side used a large amount of tanks and other serviceable equipment during the hostilities in Ukraine. According to him, five Russian tanks are decommissioned per day, and to compensate for the losses, the industry will have to produce up to 1,500 combat vehicles per year. Before the outbreak of hostilities, Russia produced 100 tanks a year, according to Koipp.
The analyst also considers the declared stocks of Russian weapons to be “grossly inflated”, as many of them were produced in the 1950s and 1960s.
“(A large number of weapons) looks good on paper, but has no practical value. Of course, the Russians can repair old tanks, but then they have to compete with the (German) Leopards and (British) Challengers,” Koipp added.
As the expert noted, Western tanks, which will soon use the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield, “will radically change the situation in favor of Ukraine”: in particular, they will be able to hit vehicles from a long distance Russian military. “With this combat power, the Ukrainians will split the Russian front,” he predicted.
In February, Bloomberg writing that Russia does not publish production statistics in the military industry, but that certain sectors of the military-industrial complex are included in general public statistics on industry. For example, according to Rosstat, in 2022 the production of metal products, including weapons, bombs and ammunition, increased by 7%. The agency also noted that Russian production compensates for a significant part of the damage caused to the domestic industry by the sanctions.
March 14 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu educated Corporation “Tactical Missiles” to double the volume of production of high-precision weapons.
Other predictions for the end of the conflict in Ukraine
Military experts from the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (AVN PLA) estimate that the military conflict in Ukraine will end approximately in the summer of 2023, Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported, citing sources. The academy report noted that the economies of both countries would be too depleted to continue hostilities after the summer. At the same time, analysts believed that Moscow would emerge from the conflict “in a more favorable situation”.
Bloomberg presented his scenarios for the evolution of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, according to which hostilities could end by mid-2023 or 2024.
The American research center RAND has published a report describing several end-of-conflict scenarios. According to analysts, the hostilities could end with the final victory of one of the parties, a truce with a cessation of hostilities and a political settlement. At the same time, as RAND noted, either side is unlikely to achieve ultimate victory.
