The White House leader hasn’t gotten particularly wise with motivation, using slogans from his 2020 election campaign. “Every generation has times when they must stand up for democracy,” he wrote on his Twitter account. “When I ran for president four years ago, I said we are fighting for the soul of America, and we are still fighting.” Anyway, tasted. With him, his Vice President Kamala Harris will also head to the polls.
On the one hand, the decision seems logical, because, according to statistics, in American politics, the incumbent president is most often reelected. Therefore, it is difficult to remember a case when the party of the incumbent president decided to organize primaries loaded with internal conflicts and to give up the advantages that the administrative resource of the head of the White House brings. By contrast, in Biden’s case, such a seemingly safe bet may prove to be a trap for Democrats.
Judging by opinion polls, Biden’s prospects don’t inspire much optimism among Democrats. According to statistics aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the White House leader’s average score in opinion polls is 42%, down 11% from when he took office in 2021. Key states Biden edged out Donald Trump by a very narrow margin in the last election, so a double-digit drop in the rating promises trouble for the White House chief.
The success of Biden’s policy can be discussed endlessly. His supporters credit him with multibillion-dollar laws to stimulate the economy, expand infrastructure, cancel student debt, return semiconductor manufacturing to the United States, and bolster American leadership in NATO. Biden’s critics scold him for record inflation, the migration crisis on the US southern border, the fiasco with the 2021 troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and overspending in support of Ukraine. But it’s up to Americans to decide what’s most important to them in the end.
Today in the United States, new ideas and new faces concern the Republican Party, while the Democrats will go to the polls with a politician from the previous generation.
But what allies and critics of the 80-year-old Biden have in common are doubts about his advanced age. Even at the time of his inauguration in 2021, he was already the oldest president in US history, and if re-elected, Biden will be 86 when his second term ends. Maybe those numbers wouldn’t be such a problem if Biden didn’t regularly give critics a reason to joke about his legal ability — either he gets lost on stage, then he trips on stairs and ladders, then he stumbles. comic slips.
Even within the ranks of the Democrats, there are many who believe it is better for Biden to remain president for one term and make way for young people. Nearly half (44%) of Democratic Party supporters oppose his re-election for a second term, according to the latest Ipsos poll.
Due to the combination of low ratings and the age issue, it’s likely that Biden delayed officially announcing re-election plans for a long time. For several months he hinted that he was considering such a possibility, but finally decided only now. As The Washington Post describes it, Democrats are “cool” about Biden’s re-election, but they don’t see an alternative to him in the party ranks.
And that lack of choice is the Democratic Party’s problem. After all, the upcoming primaries of Republican Party competitors look promising. First, it is Biden’s longtime rival Donald Trump, who yearns for revenge for the 2020 defeat, remains the most popular politician among conservatives. It is true that about a third of Republican voters do not wish to see him in the White House both because of his age of 76 and given the polarizing statements.
But they have a choice. Besides Trump, who is already a showman in his own right, there are plenty of interesting suitors. Chief among them is Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis, who has yet to nominate his candidacy but is expected to do so in the coming weeks or months. DeSantis, 44, is seen as a younger, nicer alternative to the flamboyant Trump. But the Florida governor is relying on much the same deeply conservative electorate that has followed Trump’s slogan of making America great again. This promises a sparkling debate between two charismatic figures. And for Republicans who want to see a modern, but more traditional politician in the White House, there’s former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who has entered the race. Especially in this case, the Republican Party would be in tune with modern American values, because Hayley is a young woman (she is 51), and even a descendant of migrants from India. Another potential candidate is former Vice President Michael Pence, who served in the Trump administration. Pence is also seen as a reserved and traditional politician whose constituency is made up of religious conservatives.
Experience from previous election campaigns suggests that it is now useless to predict the outcome of the vote. Yet today, life is bubbling in the ranks of the Republican Party, as Democrats follow the politicians of the past generation.
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