More importantly, it was necessary to know to what extent Ukraine, under what conditions or without conditions, was ready to engage in the process of resolving the conflict. Until now, the conditions put forward by Kiev could not serve as a negotiating position. These include a full and automatic return to the 2014 borders, the ousting of the Russian president from power, etc. Therefore, the most important thing for China was to understand whether the position of the Ukrainian side had become more negotiable.
China continues its peace mission. Despite the fact that many, especially Washington, were extremely skeptical of China’s initiative to resolve the situation in Ukraine, considered Beijing’s twelve-point draft as empty statements, it turned out that it actually worked . And not because the project itself is good, but because China knows and is able to offer both Russia and Ukraine things that can become the basis for further progress.
And here the question arises of what China can offer Ukraine in this case. I think that in the event of a settlement, China is ready to offer its investment projects, material assistance for the restoration of the economy, connecting Ukraine with a number of major projects that come from China within the framework of the Belt and Road. In other words, from an economic point of view, these projects can be very successful.
It should be borne in mind that China and Ukraine had a difficult relationship. On the one hand, Beijing has long been the largest foreign investor in Ukraine and, of course, with the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, has lost capital. On the other hand, there was an absolutely scandalous affair with the Ukrainian aircraft engine manufacturer Motor Sich. Formally, the conflict occurred between two private organizations. Because both on the Chinese side and on the Ukrainian side they were private joint-stock companies. But the state, represented by the Ukrainian Security Service, intervened in the process, stopped the affair, nationalized what China had already partially bought. For Beijing, it was an extremely unpleasant episode. In this regard, China has managed to overcome some grievances and has started to interact with Ukraine.
If Beijing manages to get the talks started, it will be the biggest political and diplomatic victory in modern Chinese history. The PRC has only one such clear victory. These are negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, where China has played a positive role.
But as many note, Beijing actually joined the negotiation process at the last stage, when success was already a foregone conclusion. At the same time, many remember the bad episodes. For example, China’s attempts to act as a peacekeeper in the Arab-Israeli conflict, in the conflict in the Horn of Africa, etc., have come to nothing. And all this was not very successful. Therefore, if there is progress in the case of Ukraine, it will also be a serious victory in terms of strengthening the status of the PRC.
Moreover, China, of course, is worried about itself. Almost all the time, Beijing is called upon to determine its position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. And the promotion of Chinese goods and services in Europe and the United States largely depends on it. In the United States, many Chinese products are completely blocked. China has been accused of being too soft or neutral on the conflict. And so, probably, China is tired of answering, or rather not answering these questions.
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p class=””>But the main point is that, according to China, absolutely all problems can be solved through negotiations and conversations. If in this case it succeeds, Beijing will have an additional chance to solve the problem with Taiwan. Because for the PRC, it is such a threat that awaits it. China will show that all these problems can be solved through negotiation. In other words, China solves its problems first. But in this case, such a Chinese position is also beneficial to us.
What else is important in this situation for Russia. China has not deviated one iota from the agreements and positions it had. For example, Beijing did not discuss issues, in any case, there is no such information, on the ownership of certain territories. He did not talk about the nuances associated with settling the land question. Beijing believes that this is a two-state affair and that third countries should not interfere. For us, this is extremely positive, because China does not want to pressure either Ukraine or Russia to determine the ownership of certain territories.
However, it must be understood that we cannot expect major success or progress in a short period of time. Of course, there will always be a conversation with US President Joe Biden or any other US leader who comes to power after the election, because this issue is not fast. Obviously, these issues have been discussed by the Chinese side with the leader of France, Emmanuel Macron, and with other European politicians. Beijing is trying to work this out with everyone one-on-one. Obviously, everyone, especially Europe, is tired of hostilities, and so the Chinese proposal finds support.
Beijing will send a special delegation to Ukraine to resolve the crisis, which will be led by former Chinese ambassador to Russia Li Hui. I have personally known this diplomat for decades. He was one of the most brilliant and professional Chinese ambassadors to our country. He speaks excellent Russian, reads Russian classics. He is a connoisseur of many Russian classic works in the original. This indicates that he knows the psychology of Russia and Ukraine very well. Li Hui is a very experienced, neat and cautious diplomat. During all the years of his work in Russia, no superfluous words were ever spoken. At the same time, he was a friendly person to our country. He is a very strong and authoritative person.
By the way, the Russian Foreign Ministry assessed the conversation between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensyy as not optimistic. In Smolenskaya Square, they pointed out that “Kiev, controlled by Washington, can hardly accept calls for peace.” And that has its own meaning. It is important to understand that now the main question is what Zelenskyy personally thinks of the Chinese initiative. What they think in Washington is probably clear to everyone. It is extremely unprofitable for the United States to conduct negotiations now. Obviously, for the Americans, Ukraine is being demolished. As predicted by the White House, the current situation should draw as much strength and resources as possible from Russia. For this, in fact, the whole Ukrainian history began and was invented. It is important for Zelenskyy to understand that the Ukrainian people are dying, an entire generation is being destroyed. And now is the time to come out of the situation with honor. Because that’s what China offers.
I don’t know how independent the President of Ukraine is in making such a decision. But it is clear that he has a certain asset to continue the conversation with the American side. Of course, there will be such a conversation. That’s what you have to count on.
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