Leading the Alternative World Order

Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

Thursday, May 2, 2024
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WorldAsiaFedor Lukyanov: There's a good chance a rematch will happen in 2024 - Biden and Trump will meet

Fedor Lukyanov: There’s a good chance a rematch will happen in 2024 – Biden and Trump will meet

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Age in the modern developed world is no longer a phrase, and active longevity practices and techniques are widespread and effective. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad turns 98 in two months, and he, like a lion, is fighting for opposition rights against former associates. And he is not quitting politics. Henry Kissinger will celebrate his centenary in a month, but his (quite frequent) judgments still tell the whole story and tend to be perceived as revelations.

Against this backdrop, Biden is still at his peak. Gossips say, however, that the problem is not age, but the cognitive state of the president and the candidate, who salutes the void, hears voices and forgets where he is. But, let’s be honest, Biden’s policy line is pretty consistent and logical. And this is not a consequence of dementia, but of a certain ideological and strategic approach. How correct is it and what will it lead to is another question, but the Course is carried out consciously and not under the influence of visions.

Either way, chances are a rematch will come in 2024. Donald Trump, who still leads with some confidence among the candidates for the Republican Party nomination, will meet a rival in the campaign ring. that he lost in 2020, but he never fully admitted it. Trump will be 77 on election day. The ex-president is significantly more cheerful than a potential opponent and doesn’t seem to be changing. However, Biden also looked completely different a few years ago, but at some point there was a scrap.

There is still a year and a half before the election, and in the current circumstances, it is very long not only for the patriarchs, but for everyone. Many things can suddenly change. But if these two competitors make it to the final, what will the prolonged generational change mean?
We dare to suggest that behind the political longevity of this age cohort (and her, minus Obama, whose “uncle” Biden has ruled the United States since the early 1990s), there is a blocked agenda. And the agenda, oddly enough, is precisely international, although foreign policy topics play an insignificant role in American public policy. The first member of the Trump-Biden generation to hold high-level positions was Bill Clinton, and he was given the honorary right to command a unipolar US-centered world order. Since then, this framework has been preserved, although the structure and state of the international system has undergone qualitative changes. But not the conscience of the American establishment, which aims to preserve and reinforce the old pattern.

Trump may seem like an outsider in this series, America First challenges the globalist aspirations of the American ruling class. However, his belonging to his time is beyond doubt, because he did not question the hegemony of the United States. Trump differed from his predecessors or from Biden in that he wanted to make his country’s central role so frankly profitable, eschewing convention. But don’t give up.

The White House for the elderly – this is how Western cartoonists joke about Joe Biden’s plans to run for a second term. Photo: social networks

Today, American dominance in the world is under great pressure. And it’s not about the appearance of strongest challenged rivals. It is much more important that the international environment has entered a state of flux, these changes are very multidirectional, but one thing unites them – the rejection of the leadership claims of anyone, especially Americans. That is, the effect of “overall material strength” appeared.

There are signs that there is a realization in the United States that it is impossible to return to the golden period of the “unipolar moment”. But this is not yet a significant shift to another path, rather aggravating circumstances. The task of strengthening hegemony and preventing, to paraphrase the well-known formula, a revision of the results of the Cold War, remains an absolute priority. And the more difficulties there are along the way, the more massive effort is required.

The international environment has become mobile and these changes are very multidirectional.

The belief that the United States can only be a leader is inherent in the philosophy of the American state itself. But the understanding of leadership has changed over time. For most of US history, he was treated as a moral and political role model for others, not the manager of international affairs. The Cold War and its continuation after the collapse of the USSR created a unique situation in which Washington was given the levers of direct control of the world. And although it seemed clear that such a situation was abnormal and could not always persist, the addiction set in very quickly. And with it the hope that there will be no return to the international political norm. It is within this paradigm that American leaders have operated for more than thirty years.

If Biden and Trump converge in 2024, any outcome will mean an attempt to delay outbound political reality for one more cadence. But that already doesn’t correspond so much to the reality that surrounds America that nothing will work anyway. But, apparently, these elections should put a symbolic end.

In the meantime

The White House has confirmed US President Joe Biden’s attendance at the upcoming G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan (May 19-21), after which he will travel to the Quadripartite Security Dialogue Heads of State Meeting (Australia , India, USA, Japan) in Sydney, Australia (May 24).

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden would discuss ‘unwavering support for Ukraine’ with his G-7 colleagues, as well as steps to respond to the ‘climate and food crises’ .
There remains little intrigue over whether Biden will visit Nagasaki, which, like Hiroshima, was bombed by the United States in August 1945. In 2016, Barack Obama became the first sitting US president since World War II. world to visit Hiroshima, but the American heads of state have not yet visited Nagasaki. However, in any case, Biden should not apologize on behalf of the United States for the only instances in history of the use of atomic weapons. At the same time, as reported by the Japanese television channel NHK, the Prime Minister of the host country Fumio Kishida hopes to adopt a document on the importance of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation at the end of the summit.

The repetition of the Hiroshima summit was the recent meeting of foreign ministers of the G7 countries. Judging by his agenda, in addition to helping Kiev, G7 leaders may discuss the fate of frozen Russian assets and further sanctions against Russia, including, according to Bloomberg, the US idea of ​​a comprehensive ban on exports to our country, which, however, is not yet supported by EU countries and Japan. Additionally, the summit’s agenda could include coordinating measures to contain China’s growing influence and the regulation of artificial intelligence.

Prepared by Igor Dunayevsky

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