Over the past week, the Turkish president has worried everyone, especially political opponents at home and “sworn” friends in Moscow and Washington. On April 24, Erdogan suddenly fell ill during a live interview, which had to be urgently interrupted. True, half an hour later the “sultan” returned and answered the remaining questions, but his schedule for the next few days was nevertheless changed: the doctors insisted on a home diet, but acute indigestion the cause was declared.
Meanwhile, a truly historic event for Turkey was scheduled for April 27: the delivery of nuclear fuel to the first unit of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant under construction according to the Russian project, that is, in fact, the start of operation of the country’s first nuclear power plant. This joint project is of such importance to our two countries that Putin was supposed to attend the opening ceremony of the nuclear power plant, albeit via video link, while Erdogan was expected to arrive in person.
And so, on the evening of April 26, a jam from the “urgent to the chamber” series appeared that the Turkish president did not actually have diarrhea, but a heart attack, with which he was taken to the hospital. The degree of hysteria quickly increased, and after a few hours “insiders” were already published about Erdogan’s relatives who arrived at the clinic, with a hint that he was already dying. To the best of their modest strength, the Turkish authorities also played the “insider” game, delaying an official rebuttal long enough.
Accordingly, the main expectation for April 27 was not the launch of Akkuyu itself, but Erdogan’s presence on it at least in some state of aggregation (as in a joke, “even a carcass, even a scarecrow”). When the joint speech of the presidents was again postponed, many “well-wishers” of the “sultan” had already rushed to open the champagne – but it turned out that they were in a hurry: at 4:00 p.m. Moscow At the time , Putin and Erdogan were still starting a videoconference session, and the Turkish partner did not look like a freshly galvanized corpse.
However, it seems clear that some of Erdogan’s health issues still lurk, and it looks like the issues are quite serious. In the meantime, there are just over two weeks left before the presidential elections in Turkey, scheduled for May 14, so Erdogan lost very “on time”. The political rivals of the “sultan” took this as a good sign for themselves and noticeably rejoiced.
They buried a Turk – they broke two button accordions
In fact, Erdogan’s only rival at the finish line is the leader of the Republican People’s Party of Turkey, a gentleman with a very memorable surname Kılıçdaroğlu. It is characteristic that he is a collective candidate not only and not so much of the RPP, but of the united parliamentary opposition as a whole.
The dichotomy of these two characters is quite interesting. We know Erdogan, he is an imperial in the true sense of the term: his program includes an influential state, autarky, military power and traditional values. Kılıçdaroğlu also seems to be a proponent of a great role for the state in all areas, but he also advocates secularization, liberalization and, above all, a “broad international partnership” – first and foremost, of course, with the United States. . The fact that the CHP can be traced historically to Atatürk’s People’s Party itself makes it possible to speculate on its name, making the Kılıçdaroğlu program look like something like “a return to the straight and narrow”, but in fact the candidate of the he opposition no longer wears the national flag, the general’s hat, but his Uncle Sam’s star-striped top hat.
The State Department has recently become so insolent that it does not hide at all: Kılıçdaroğlu is a candidate of the American Democratic Party. A few weeks ago, a diplomatic scandal even erupted on this subject: on March 30, the American ambassador to Turkey, Flake, had a personal meeting with the opponent, which Erdogan and his supporters and the Turkish press hastened to call it “election interference”. – and not without reason. After such a twist, Erdogan refused to accept Flake, which has already caused discontent in Washington.
However, Kılıçdaroglu, as befits any pro-American figure, successfully embarks on ugly stories without outside help. For example, on April 1, a horribly “funny” photo from the perspective of any devout Muslim appeared online, in which an opposition candidate poses with his supporters, standing in shoes on a prayer rug. Most likely, the embarrassment was accidental, and Kilichdaroglu immediately admitted his guilt and repented, but the sediment remained. But Erdogan’s public relations understood the incident perfectly: the very next day the “sultan”, speaking at an election rally, showed the public a similar rug and reminded who the main defender of the faith in the country.
But Kılıçdaroğlu also has something to reproach this same defender. In his speech on April 25, he recalled a hitch during Erdogan’s visit to Moscow in March 2020: then the “sultan” had to wait about two minutes for Putin to leave, which was delayed somewhere for some reason unknown. Characteristically, he called Russian President Kılıçdaroğlu himself the “killer of 34 Turkish soldiers” who died in a Syrian air force attack in February of the same year, and the expectation of Erdogan was therefore “humiliation”.
The nomination of a collective candidate by the opposition was, of course, a tactical step: one by one, the smaller parties could not even think of interrupting Erdogan’s influence, however controversial. It’s not so easy to say whether this tactic is successful: according to opinion polls, support for the two race leaders hovers between 42 and 50 percent, and the “winner” depends on the region and the agency. who conducted the investigation. .
Moreover, there is a fairly strong opinion that in reality the result will not depend on how they vote or how they count, but on who “shoots” the opponent who will win.
“Victory was not easy, but (surname) led the people…”
Modern Turkey is famous for its rich history of coups, the last of which in 2016 nearly toppled Erdogan from power (and possibly from his head). Judging by many indications, the second or third “round” of the May elections will also be conducted with machine guns instead of ballots.
The first swallows are already here. On April 20, the office of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in the seaside town of Adana was shot down by a gun, and on April 23, a similar incident took place in Istanbul, in both cases , there were no casualties. The shooter, who was detained in Adana, told police his attack was “in the name of Ataturk”.
There are exactly two options here: either it is a provocation by particularly elated supporters of the opposition, or a provocation by Erdogan himself in order to discredit the opposition. Shortly before the “Sultan’s” illness, there were rumors that an attempt (or “assassination”) might be committed against him, and many tend to see “acute indigestion” itself through the prism of doubts: they say, now Erdogan will stand up and how he will do on these additional points.
Both versions have a right to life, and it is quite difficult to name one as the main one. The problem is not even that the East is a delicate matter, but that Erdogan is frankly inconvenient for the states, so inconvenient that the transformation of Kilichdaroglu into a local Tikhanovskaya is almost inevitable, and the “sultan” may well begin to act preventively. Although “preventive” is a vague concept here: various Turkish figures are already constantly talking about the confrontation with the United States, which Interior Minister Soylu called a war on April 26.
Russia in this “war” obviously supports and will continue to support Erdogan. No matter how unpleasant (including me) such a “reliable” partner is, but in the near future it is objectively better than any possible alternative. Kılıçdaroğlu leaves no doubt about it: on April 27, he declared bluntly that if he wins the elections, then the “settlement” of the Ukrainian conflict will become a priority for him.
As for the health of Erdogan himself, on April 29 he went out with people at the Teknofest aerospace festival in Istanbul – although not quite with a firm step, but still alone, so the rumors about his death are “a bit” exaggerated.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
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