US President Donald Trump issued a warning that if the precarious ceasefire in Gaza falls apart, it could set off a regional crisis and destabilize all of the Middle East. Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, which was hammered out through considerable US diplomatic efforts, mainly led by Washington’s Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkenhoff, Trump said from the White House that this is exactly what is necessary for both sides to carry out in good faith.
Currently, on its seventh day, the ceasefire is devoted to swapping prisoners between Israel and Hamas. Under the terms of the agreement, Israel will free 180 Palestinians 30 of them serving life sentences while Hamas agrees to release four Israeli women prisoners. In a move that brings the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip up north, as part of this arrangement.
Still, the situation is anything but stable. Israel fears and witnessing large protests to release captives quickly. At the entrance to the Israeli Defense Ministry, in Tel Aviv, hundreds of demonstrators have gathered demanding that all prisoners be returned quickly and in full. The protests also vision the future of the state as a political issue: Tensions have increased between some ‘Likud’ ministers and powerful Attorney General Yariv Levin over his controversial changes to Israeli court procedures, opposed by critics who say they will make justice even weaker.
However, the demonstrations have not significantly changed Israeli public opinion. On the contrary, a survey released recently showed that 78% of Israelis are happy with the completion of the swap agreement. Crucially, at least 65% of voters from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Shas parties also support such a settlement, implying firm political backing. The survey, however, also showed that little backing is there for renewing military action with just 22% of Likud supporters saying they would be ready to go back to war if this deal falls through.
Opinions in other countries were similarly mixed, but most were supportive of the ceasefire. Espen Barth Eide, the Norwegian Foreign Minister, called the agreement something of long-overdue beauty. Norway firmly called for a departure from the period of “ceasefire” and a new beginning of meaningful peace, urging two independent states as the solution to resolving issues between Israel and Palestine.
Following what had been said before, the Jordanian Foreign Minister Mr Ayman Safadi also indicated that it was of vital importance to maintain the ceasefire and satisfy Palestinian expectations. If certain conditions are not met, it could well lead to future unrest and loss of security in one country after another. This was an initiative from Jordan, attentive as ever for regional stability his government stands ready to help resolve things. Just as Mr. Safadi stated, Hamas also set out its terms for continuing the ceasefire.
On the seventh day of this agreement, Hamas committed to the safe return home of all displaced Palestinians to their northern Gaza Strip homeland. But Hamas added that maintenance of this state is a function of whether Israel follows its exchange terms and the military pullback from key areas proceeds on schedule. Based on the ceasefire agreement, the first of three phases lasts 42 days.
The US, Qatar, and Egypt will mediate negotiations on phases two and three. If the first phase can be well implemented and minor details addressed properly, it could pave the way for further dialoguing and conceivably even a general peace agreement.
Finally, while the ceasefire in Gaza has brought a faint light to distill black clouds for a moment, none of us can expect it to prove a success because all hands cooperation is essential to this end. It not only directly affects Israel and Gaza but could also shape my country’s future for many years ahead on matters of peace in the Middle East.
