Decades of shadow warfare between Iran and Israel exploded into open conflict. Israel launched a wide-scale air offensive against targets across Iran – an operation officials in Tehran decried as a “blatant aggression” – prompting Iran to retaliate with ballistic missile barrages on Israeli cities.
The rapid escalation, which unfolded from June 12 to 14, marked the first direct military confrontation between the two adversaries and stoked fears of a broader regional war. Both sides traded airstrikes and warnings, with Iranian leaders vowing “severe punishment” for Israel’s actions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisting the campaign would continue “as many days as it takes” to eliminate the threat, according to The Tehran Times. International and regional powers have been quick to react, condemning the violence and bracing for the conflict’s fallout.
Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Sites and Leadership in “Operation Rising Lion”
Shortly after midnight on June 13, Israel initiated “Operation Rising Lion,” a massive wave of airstrikes targeting dozens of sites across Iran, according to CBS News. Israeli warplanes struck at least 12 provinces of Iran including the capital Tehran and the northwestern city of Tabriz, according to Al Jazeera. Among the targets were Iran’s key nuclear facilities – such as the enrichment complex at Natanz – as well as air defense batteries, military bases, and the homes or offices of senior Iranian military leaders. Loud explosions were reported in Tehran and multiple other cities as the attacks unfolded in waves before dawn.
Netanyahu confirmed Israeli forces were carrying out a “massive wave of airstrikes” against Iran’s nuclear program and what he called “the senior security leadership of the Iranian regime.” He said the goal of the preemptive operation was to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival,” alluding to Israeli claims that Iran was on the cusp of developing a nuclear weapon.
According to CBS News, that Israeli officials have described the attacks as necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear bombs and to degrade Iran’s missile arsenal and proxy networkscbsnews. “Israel’s attacks against Iran will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” Netanyahu declared, framing the attack as an act of self-defense.
The opening assault was unprecedented in scale. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the first wave of the operation involved 200 fighter jets dropping over 330 precision munitions, hitting more than 100 targets across Iran in a matter of hours. Targets included Iran’s main uranium enrichment installations – with Israel confirming it struck the Natanz site, causing damage to underground centrifuge halls – as well as military research centers and command facilities.
Israeli attacks even reached into central Tehran: blasts and fires were reported in several districts of the capital, and images showed heavily damaged buildings in the city, according to Al Jazeera. Iranian state media and officials acknowledged that the attacks hit multiple cities and installations, describing the onslaught as the most direct act of war by Israel in the two countries’ history of hostilities.
Crucially, the Israeli air raids targeted Iran’s top military brass. In a televised statement, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin announced that “the senior security leadership of the Iranian regime has been eliminated” in the first attacks. He identified among the casualties Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and General Gholam Ali Rashid, head of Iran’s central military headquarters. Iranian media later confirmed that these commanders were killed when Israeli missiles struck sites in Tehran early Friday, Norwegian Nordlys noted.
The attacks also reportedly killed several nuclear scientists and researchers. At least six scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear program were among those slain, according to AFP reports, dealing a blow to Iran’s scientific ranks. Unverified social media images and local reports suggested Israeli jets conducted pinpoint attacks in Tehran to assassinate specific figures.
Iranian authorities have not released full casualty figures, but state media reports indicate the toll is significant. According to Iranian outlets, roughly 78 people were killed and over 300 injured in the Israeli air raids, norwegian Nordlys noted. Those casualties include IRGC officers, military personnel, scientists, and civilians caught in the attack.
Iranian rescue teams were seen picking through rubble of impacted buildings in Tehran as fires burned. The Tehran Times reports, an English-language Iranian daily, reported that civilians were among the dead – including at least one notable Iranian poet and other public figures – after Israeli missiles hit residential areas in the capital. Iran’s nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, stated that the attack on Natanz caused only “surface damage” and no radioactive leakage, insisting that Iran’s nuclear program remains intact despite the airstrikes.
Israeli officials characterized the operation as a success, claiming it significantly set back Iran’s capabilities. “We have destroyed Iran’s air defenses and key bases,” a senior Israeli military source told local media, though these claims have not been independently verified. Israeli analysts noted that the breadth of targets – from nuclear sites to military command-and-control – suggests Israel aimed not only to delay Iran’s nuclear progress but also to “cripple any potential military response and even destabilize the regime” in Tehran. Observers pointed out that Israel committed a large portion of its air force to the attacks, demonstrating its long-range attacks capacity, but sustaining such operations deep inside Iran could strain Israeli forces if the conflict endures.
Mossad’s shadow war: The ability of Israel to pinpoint and hit high-value targets in the Iranian capital underscored the extensive intelligence groundwork likely preceding the attacks. In the past, Iranian authorities have frequently broken up alleged Israeli spy networks and blamed Mossad for sabotaging nuclear facilities and assassinating scientists on Iranian soil. In fact, Iran regularly arrests individuals accused of spying for Israel amid a “flurry of targeted assassinations and acts of sabotage” against its nuclear program, according to Times of Israel.
Many in Tehran suspect that Israeli operatives or local agents provided crucial targeting information and may have conducted precursor operations to disable Iranian air defenses. The Tehran Times noted that the Israeli attack violated Iran’s sovereignty in a way unseen before, suggesting Mossad’s hand behind the operation to neutralize Iranian radar and facilitate the airstrikes – although Israeli officials have not commented on any covert aspects of the campaign.
Tehran’s Response: “An Act of War” and Warnings of Revenge
Stunned by the decapitation attack against its leadership, Iran’s government reacted with fury on June 13. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the nation in a televised speech, condemning Israel’s surprise onslaught as “an act of war” and vowing that the “wicked Zionist regime” would not be allowed to go unpunished, according to Norwegian nordlys. “They started a war and have committed a huge crime. We will not let them get away with it,” Khamenei declared emphatically, urging Iranians to remain steadfast as the military prepares a powerful response. He promised that Iran’s
“Armed Forces will act powerfully and create a miserable situation for the Zionist regime”, indicating that a harsh retaliation was imminent. Khamenei’s words rallied many in Iran – small-scale protests erupted in Tehran and other cities with crowds chanting “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” and some demonstrators holding portraits of the Supreme Leader while demanding swift revenge. State TV showed gatherings where irate citizens, echoing the official line, called for an “overwhelming, scathing response” to Israel’s aggression.
Iran’s top decision-making bodies convened emergency sessions on Friday. By midday June 13, Tehran had formally labeled the Israeli attack an undeclared war. The Iranian Armed Forces announced that Major General Mohammad Pakpour would assume command of the IRGC as the new chief, succeeding Gen. Salami who was martyred in the attacks, according to The Tehran Times. In a letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, Maj. Gen. Pakpour vowed that “the sinister and illegitimate regime of Israel will face a bitter and painful fate with great and destructive consequences” for its aggression.
The new IRGC commander wrote that the crime of violating Iran’s sovereignty “definitely will not go unanswered”, pledging to “take revenge for the blood of [our] commanders, scientists, and people” and warning that “the gates of hell will soon open to this child-killing regime.” Such fiery language from Iran’s military leadership underscored the resolve in Tehran to retaliate in force.
Other Iranian officials and allies echoed the defiant tone. Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, blasted Israel’s actions and insisted that while “the Zionist regime started the war…it is Iran that will decide about its end,” The Tehran Times noted. Iran’s President (in this scenario, Masoud Pezeshkian) reportedly reached out to Russia and China, seeking diplomatic and possibly military backing.
According to Turkish Anadolu Agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin held separate phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to address the escalating crisis. During a telephone call with Netanyahu, Putin emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution of Israeli-Iranian disputes and urged a return to negotiations. “The importance of resolving all issues related to the Iranian nuclear program exclusively through political and diplomatic means was emphasized,” the Kremlin said, adding that Moscow is prepared to provide mediation services “to prevent further escalation.” Earlier, Netanyahu’s office had announced he would brief Putin on the latest developments following Israel’s military actions.
In his conversation with Pezeshkian, Putin expressed condolences to the Iranian leadership and people over the casualties caused by the Israeli attacks. Moscow “strongly condemns” Israel’s actions, which violate the UN Charter and international law, the statement said.
Putin reaffirmed Russia’s full support for peaceful efforts to resolve issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.
As the country mourned the slain commanders – with state media hailing them as martyrs – Iran’s military forces were put on high alert. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and regular Army mobilized air defense networks and began dispersing strategic assets to protect them from further Israeli raids. For the first hours after the attack, however, Iran did not immediately unleash a counterstrike. Analysts noted that Tehran often exercises “strategic patience” after absorbing a blow, to carefully plan a response. In this case, Iranian commanders hinted at an impending retaliation but may have delayed to assess the damage and choose targets. By Friday evening, that retaliation was ready to begin.
Iran Strikes Back: Missile Barrage on Tel Aviv and Cross-Border Clashes
Late on June 13, Iran made good on its threats with a massive missile barrage aimed at Israel. At around 9:30 pm The Tehran time, air-raid sirens began wailing across central Israel, including in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, sending residents rushing to bomb shelters. Within minutes, Israeli defense officials confirmed that dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles were inbound. Brig. Gen. Defrin of the IDF described it as an “apparent retaliatory action from Iran” for the attacks on its territory, CBS News noted.
Iran’s Armed Forces announced the commencement of “Operation True Promise 3”, calling it a legitimate retaliation against Israeli military targets. In the initial salvo, Iran launched 100 missiles from bases near Shiraz in southern Iran, aiming them at Israeli cities and strategic sites. Shortly afterward, additional volleys were fired from western Iran.
Television footage and eyewitness accounts described an intense scene in Israel: the night sky above Tel Aviv lit up with streaks of interceptor rockets as Israel’s Iron Dome and other air defense systems attempted to shoot down the incoming missiles. “Israel’s capital Tel Aviv is in disarray and people are seeking shelter as ballistic missiles are raining down,” The Tehran Times reported, describing panic on the streets. Israeli authorities instructed the entire population to remain in protected rooms or shelters until further notice.
Rocket trails were visible over Jerusalem, and multiple loud blasts were heard as interceptors collided with missiles in the air. The Israeli military acknowledged that at least some Iranian missiles penetrated the defensive shield. Local media, including Haaretz, reported direct impacts in the Tel Aviv area – one explosion in the city injured at least one person, and seven people were wounded in Ramat Gan, a suburb of Tel Aviv, according to Magen David Adom (Israeli EMS). These reports marked the first Israeli civilian casualties of Iran’s counterstrike. No deaths were immediately reported on the Israeli side, but officials warned it was too early to fully assess damage.
Alongside ballistic missiles, Iran also deployed armed drones in its retaliation. Israeli radar detected waves of unmanned aerial vehicles heading toward Israeli airspace from different directions. By Iran’s account, over 100 drones were launched at Israel, likely a mix of kamikaze drones and long-range loitering munition. The IDF claimed it intercepted the majority of the drones with fighter jets and air defenses. Still, Iranian state TV broadcast celebratory footage of what it said were missiles and drones hitting targets in Israel, though these claims remain unverified. Israeli officials did confirm shooting down at least one Iranian drone near the sensitive Fordo nuclear site inside Iran, suggesting some clashes also occurred in Iranian airspace as Israel continued its offensive attacks on the second day.
Notably, the Iranian missile retaliation came while Ayatollah Khamenei was live on air addressing the nation. In an intentional display of resolve, Iran’s military began firing missiles during the Leader’s speech, underscoring that the supreme leader himself gave the go-ahead. “The missile and drone attacks on the Zionist regime began as the Leader was addressing the nation, promising a miserable situation for the enemy,” Iranian media noted.
Khamenei’s remarks during that address were uncompromising: he urged the Iranian forces to unleash a “severe punishment” and assured the public that Iran’s response would “know no limits”. Indeed, shortly after the initial barrage, IRGC General Mohammad Pakpour – the new IRGC chief – warned that “the doors of hell” had now opened for Israel and that more was coming. By early hours of June 14, sporadic rocket fire was still being reported. The Israeli military indicated it was bracing for the possibility of “a campaign on the frontline and on the home front” lasting several days, involving continued Iranian strikes and Israeli counter-attacks.
While Iran’s retaliation was fierce, Israeli defense systems limited the damage. The Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow batteries reportedly intercepted many incoming projectiles, preventing mass casualties. Still, the psychological impact on Israel was significant – it was the first time in history that Iranian military forces (as opposed to proxy militias) had directly fired large numbers of missiles at Israeli cities.
This shattered a long-held taboo and brought the war directly to Israel’s populace. By June 14, schools and businesses in central Israel remained closed, and Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv was temporarily shut down as a precaution. The Israeli army also had to divert some resources to bolster domestic air defenses even as its jets continued to pound targets in Iran.
Regional Fallout: Allies Mobilize and Condemnations Mount
The sudden Israel-Iran war has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. Key regional countries – including those normally at odds with Tehran – united in condemning Israel’s actions and warning of dire consequences if hostilities continue.
Pakistan’s government sharply denounced the Israeli airstrikes as “Strongly condemn unjustified Israeli attacks on Islamic Republic of Iran which is a brazen violation of Iran’s sovereignty. This abhorrent action has shaken foundations of international law as well as conscience of humanity, and gravely undermines regional stability and international security. Pakistan stands in solidarity with the Government and the people of Iran,” Pakistani Deputy PM Ishaq Dar wrote on social media that the assault “has shaken the foundations of international law as well as the conscience of humanity”, calling it a flagrant breach of norms that undermines regional stability.
According to Daily Sabah,Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lambasted Israel’s move as a “Israel’s attacks on our neighbor Iran are a clear provocation that disregards international law,” he underlined, adding that these attacks, which come at a time when negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program are intensifying and international pressure is increasing against inhumane actions targeting Gaza, demonstrate Israel’s “rule-breaking mentality.” Ankara’s foreign ministry added that Israel “does not want issues resolved diplomatically,” suggesting the attack was aimed at derailing peaceful solutions.
The Arab states of the Persian Gulf also reacted strongly. Saudi Arabia condemned Israel’s attacks as a “clear violation of international laws” and urgently called on the UN Security Council to “immediately halt this aggression” before it ignites a broader conflagration. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates issued statements of solidarity with Iran, with Qatar’s prime minister calling Israel’s actions “absurd and dangerous threats to global security.” Oman, which had been mediating indirect US-Iran talks, slammed Israel’s “reckless escalation” and said Tel Aviv must be held “responsible for this dangerous behavior.” Even Egypt, which has peace with Israel, warned that the region would face “unprecedented repercussions” if the conflict persisted.
One particularly affected neighbor is Iraq, which was inadvertently drawn into the fray. Iraqi officials protested that Israeli fighter jets had used Iraq’s airspace (and possibly Jordan’s) to carry out the attacks on Iran. Baghdad called on the UN to take concrete action, stating that mere condemnations were “no longer sufficient.” Influential Iraqi Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani also weighed in, condemning the Israeli “aggression” and urging the international community to restrain the “Zionist regime” to prevent further attacks.
Pro-Iran militia groups in Iraq, such as Kataib Hezbollah, declared that if Iran is attacked, they consider themselves under attack too – raising the specter of attacks on US bases in Iraq or Syria as part of Iran’s response. Indeed, in Syria, reports emerged of rockets being fired at a US base in Deir ez-Zor province on June 14, presumably by Iran-backed militias, though US officials did not confirm any casualties.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s long-time ally, announced it “fully supports Iran’s right to respond.” The Lebanese resistance group condemned Israel’s “dangerous escalation” and charged that it was carried out with “full US sponsorship”, reflecting Hezbollah’s view that Washington shares blame.
“This enemy abides by no logic or laws, it only knows the language of murder and fire,” a Hezbollah statement said of Israel. There is growing concern that Hezbollah – which possesses a massive rocket arsenal – could open a second front against Israel from Lebanon if the conflict worsens. However, as of June 14, Hezbollah’s actions have been limited to heightened rhetoric and readiness, possibly waiting for Iran’s cue.
Palestinian groups also framed the clash as part of Israel’s wider war on the “Resistance Axis.” Hamas officials in Gaza asserted that Israel’s attack on Iran “stems primarily from Iran’s support for the Palestinian people”, suggesting Israel targeted Iran because of Tehran’s backing of Palestinian resistance. Hamas and Islamic Jihad praised Iran’s retaliatory attacks.
The spokesman of Hamas’s military wing (Al-Qassam Brigades), Abu Obeida, warned that “the Zionist enemy is deluded if it believes these treacherous attacks can undermine the Resistance Front”, signaling that Iran’s allies would continue fighting Israel on multiple fronts.This raises fears that conflict could spread to Gaza or southern Lebanon in parallel with the Iran-Israel exchanges. Already, in the occupied West Bank, calls for protests against Israel’s action in Iran were reported, linking it with Israeli military operations in Palestinian territories.
Meanwhile, international organizations sounded alarms. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed “grave concern” over the military escalation, particularly condemning the attacks on nuclear facilities as extremely risky. He urged all sides to step back from the brink, though his appeals did little to slow the immediate pace of events. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which had just days earlier criticized Iran for its nuclear activities, offered to send its Director General Rafael Grossi to Iran to assess any damage to nuclear sites.
Grossi said Iran informed him that the highly-fortified Fordo enrichment site was not impacted by the attacks, and Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant was also untouched. Nevertheless, the IAEA called an emergency meeting, at Iran’s behest, to discuss the implications of military attacks on nuclear facilities. Tehran argues that Israel’s bombing of peaceful nuclear infrastructure sets a dangerous precedent and has demanded international censure of Israel in the IAEA and UN.
West Reacts: US Caught in the Middle, Russia and China Blame Israel
Western governments have been scrambling in response to the sudden conflict. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, finds itself in a complex position. On one hand, Washington has long opposed Iran’s nuclear ambitions and maintains a policy of ensuring Israel’s security. On the other hand, an all-out war involving Iran could threaten US personnel and interests across the Middle East. Initially, the Biden administration (or rather, the Trump administration as of 2025, according to this scenario) had reportedly given tacit approval to Israel’s plans.
In fact, US President Donald Trump had privately given Iran a 60-day ultimatum regarding its nuclear program and signaled support for limited Israeli military action if diplomacy failed. According to a controversial post on Trump’s own social media, he boasted “Certain Iranian hardliners are all DEAD now,” referring to the slain IRGC commanders, and warned that “the next planned attacks [will be] even more brutal”. This apparent gloating drew backlash and seemed to confirm Iranian accusations of US complicity in the attacks.
Officially, however, US statements were more measured. The State Department condemned Iran’s “continued destabilizing activities” (a nod to its nuclear work and support for proxies) but stopped short of openly endorsing Israel’s offensive. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for de-escalation and said Israel has a right to self-defense “against imminent threats,” while also urging Iran to refrain from “violent retaliation.” Privately, US defense officials noted that the bunker-busting bombs and aircraft used by Israel were American-made – some delivered during Trump’s first term – highlighting Washington’s material support of Israel.
As Iran’s counterstrikes unfolded, the Pentagon placed US military bases in the region on high alert. The US Embassy in Israel (Jerusalem) ordered its personnel to shelter in place on June 13 as a precaution. Notably, one day prior to the Israeli attack, the US had evacuated non-essential personnel from Iraq and allowed military families to depart the Middle East, a clear sign that it anticipated retaliatory strikes that could endanger Americans. US Central Command has since repositioned some forces, and additional air defense units were reportedly sent to US facilities in Bahrain (home of the Navy’s 5th Fleet) and Qatar in case Iran or its proxies expand their target list.
Western European leaders broadly supported Israel’s rationale but were cautious about the escalation. French President Emmanuel Macron said he was deeply concerned and called for restraint, but he also reaffirmed that “France stands by Israel’s right to defend itself” and criticized Iran’s nuclear trajectory. The UK’s Prime Minister (in this scenario, Keir Starmer) issued a general appeal for calm, yet pointedly did not deny suggestions that London had prior knowledge of Israel’s operation.
Germany’s opposition leader Friedrich Merz (who was briefed by Netanyahu ahead of time) echoed support for Israel’s “right to defend its existence.” The European Union as a whole walked a diplomatic tightrope: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the situation “deeply alarming” and urged “all parties to exercise maximum restraint”, stopping short of singling out Israel. The EU’s foreign policy chief (reportedly Kaja Kallas by 2025) offered to help mediate a return to negotiations, emphasizing a need for diplomacy while notably ignoring Iran’s argument that it has the right to retaliate in self-defense. This even-handed stance drew ire in Tehran, which sees it as a false equivalence between aggressor and victim.
From Moscow and Beijing, the rhetoric firmly sided with Iran’s perspective. Russia condemned the Israeli attacks as “unacceptable”, with the Foreign Ministry stating that “unprovoked attacks against a sovereign state violate the UN Charter”. The Kremlin accused Israel of sabotaging months of diplomacy on the Iran nuclear issue and warned that further escalation could have “catastrophic consequences” for regional peace. China expressed similar disapproval; although Chinese officials were more muted publicly, they urged an immediate ceasefire and reportedly contacted both Tehran and Tel Aviv in an attempt to play mediator.
Both Russia and China have been working closely with Iran in various diplomatic arenas, and they criticized what they call Western “double standards” – pointing out that when Israel attacks Iran it’s often justified in Western discourse, whereas any Iranian defensive moves are harshly condemned. This narrative, prevalent in Iranian and Russian media, argues that Western powers enabled Israel’s attack (through intelligence or silence) and are now only offering “hollow calls for restraint.” The Tehran Times ran an analysis accusing the US and Europe of double standards, noting that these same actors had stood by Israel during its campaigns in Gaza and elsewhere, effectively “enablement of Tel Aviv’s war crimes.”
A vivid example of Western complicity, from Iran’s view, is the report that Trump gave Netanyahu a quiet nod to proceed after issuing an ultimatum to Tehran. Iranian officials seized on a New York Times revelation that US and European intelligence knew an Israeli attacks was imminent but chose only to evacuate their citizens rather than stop it. This has only reinforced Tehran’s distrust of the West. In response, Iran announced it is boycotting further nuclear talks that were scheduled in Oman on June 15. “With Israel’s actions, the sixth round of negotiations with the United States will probably not be held,” said Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi, according to Iranian media. Indeed, it appears any diplomatic off-ramp has vanished for now.
Fears of Wider War and the Uncertain Road Ahead
By June 14, the immediate exchanges between Israel and Iran had begun to subside, but the conflict is far from over. Around the world, commentators are warning that the Iran-Israel clash could spiral into a multi-front regional war if cooler heads do not prevail. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte (speaking from Sweden) stressed the need to de-escalate, noting that Israel acted unilaterally and that allies including the US were working urgently to prevent a broader conflagration. Rutte assessed that despite the ferocity of the fighting, the situation was “not close to a nuclear conflict” – implicitly reminding that Israel, though undeclared, possesses nuclear weapons whereas Iran does not. Nevertheless, the specter of nuclear implications looms over this crisis.
Iran’s leaders are under intense domestic pressure to show strength. There is widespread speculation that Iran might expand the retaliation beyond Israeli territory. In an opinion piece titled “Israel may have just pushed Iran across the nuclear line,” Al Jazeera warned that the Israeli attacks – meant to prevent Iran from ever building a bomb – may instead push Tehran to openly pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
Some Iranian officials have floated extreme responses: Tehran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and abandon its past pledge not to seek nuclear arms. Hardliners argue that with such direct aggression from Israel (and by extension the US), Iran must have its own nuclear deterrent. There is even talk that Ayatollah Khamenei might revoke his religious fatwa forbidding nuclear weapons, a move that would signal Iran’s intent to develop a bomb openly. While no such decision has been announced, the coming weeks will be critical in determining Iran’s strategic path.
Military analysts also point to the role of Iran’s network of proxy forces: if Iran itself is limited in striking back directly (due to Israel’s defenses), it may leverage allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere to bleed Israel and US interests. A fellow at Chatham House noted that the Houthis in Yemen “will be called upon to repay decades of Iranian support” by attacking Israel or its allies.
Already, there are concerns of renewed Houthi missile launches at Israel or shipping in the Red Sea, which could drag Saudi Arabia and the UAE back into conflict despite their recent truce in Yemen. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s calculus may depend on whether it believes Iran’s is existentially threatened; the reported killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah earlier (an unconfirmed scenario detail) and chaos in Syria (where the regime of Bashar al-Assad has apparently collapsed in this scenario) put even more pressure on Iran to use remaining allies forcefully.
For now, Israel insists it has achieved a significant victory by damaging Iran’s nuclear program and killing key leaders. However, if Iran’s retaliation continues or intensifies – and especially if Iranian missiles exact a heavier toll on Israeli civilians – Netanyahu’s government will face the prospect of a prolonged war on home soil. Israeli airstrikes were ongoing as of June 14, reportedly targeting any remaining missile launch sites in Iran and infrastructure of the IRGC.
The risk of miscalculation is extremely high. A stray Iranian missile that causes mass casualties in Tel Aviv, or an Israeli attack that hits Iran’s leadership bunker, could trigger uncontrollable escalation. Both nations’ political futures are at stake: Netanyahu has tied his legacy to stopping Iran’s nuclear bomb at any cost, and Khamenei’s regime in Iran now faces perhaps its greatest test, having to retaliate strongly without inviting its own destruction.
Global powers are urgently attempting to mediate. There are backchannel communications reported between Washington and Tehran via Oman, though Iran’s public refusal to negotiate complicates this. The UN Security Council convened an emergency session, but any resolution is likely to be vetoed by the US or Russia given their opposing stances. In the meantime, oil markets are spiking and worldwide travel alerts have been issued, as the airspace across multiple Middle Eastern countries has been closed amid the hostilities. Airlines have canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is under naval escort due to fears Iran could target oil tankers if the conflict widens.
As the dust settles on the initial clashes, one thing is clear: the Iran-Israel conflict has entered uncharted territory. What began as a short, sharp shock to Iran’s nuclear program could evolve into a drawn-out war of attrition. Iranian officials are framing the confrontation as a long struggle – a new “Resistance war” that could play out over weeks or months. Both sides possess capabilities that the other fears: Israel’s air force can attack throughout the region, and Iran’s ballistic missiles can reach any city in Israel. The coming days will test whether international pressure can rein in the belligerents or whether this conflict will escalate further, potentially drawing in the United States and others.
For now, the world watches with deep apprehension as two of the Middle East’s fiercest rivals trade blows. Tehran has promised that Israel will “bitterly regret” its aggression, while Netanyahu insists Israel will never allow Iran to go nuclear – even if it means war. The balance between those positions may determine if this crisis subsides or triggers a far more devastating regional war.
