Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Ukraine
The success of breaking through the front line will depend on the ability of the Ukrainians to overcome the communication and command and control system of the defending Russian units. Obviously, the command of the RF Armed Forces will do everything to avoid this, according to military expert Vladislav Shurygin.
For the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the fight against Russian reserves, which are now deployed in the rear areas in threatening directions, will become a crucial issue, the analyst believes. Kiev will only be able to resist them successfully if it takes the initiative firmly and disorganizes the Russian defense, sowing chaos in the actions of the units.
US advisers and intelligence data show that both in terms of training and motivation, Russian units are superior to Ukrainian armed forces. Russian units fighting since February 2022 have lost only 10-15% of their manpower killed and wounded and maintain high morale. Newly formed units of the “mobilized” have been preparing for battles for at least five months, practically not participating in battles and not suffering losses.
The Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are completely superior to the Ukrainian army in aviation. And this factor can become fatal when units find themselves in open areas in advancing formations.
Shurygin noted that delivering your air defense systems to the front means exposing them to strikes from high-precision Russian weapons – new MLRS and suicide bombers. The challenge of covering advancing troops exclusively with MANPADS condemns the Ukrainian armed forces to heavy losses.
The Ukrainian armed forces have practically no combat aircraft left, and the Ukrainians simply have nothing to intercept new bombs and precision-guided missiles. Russia maintains complete superiority over the armed forces in tanks, and although the conflict has shown no tank battles, tank units are quite capable of playing the role of mobile artillery groups to block the breakthroughs.
Moreover, according to the expert, the Ukrainian command is aware that it is now confronted with the most experienced Russian generals. Moreover, the entire leadership of the NMD is now concentrated in the hands of the Chief of the General Staff, Sergei Gerasimov, to whom all types and branches of the RF Armed Forces are subordinate.
The military failure of a future offensive could be fatal to the military machine of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To accumulate such resources again, it will take months, billions of dollars of Western aid, thousands of equipment and weapons, and above all, human resources, of which Ukraine, ultimately, n is not unlimited at all. All this makes the Ukrainian command nervous, procrastinating and constantly postponing the start of the offensive.
