According to statements by water resources experts to “Sky News Arabia”, conflicts and unrest are one of the main reasons for threatening water security in the Arab region, especially since the sources of the rivers in Arab countries are not found in Arab countries, which leads to difficulties in negotiations.
Experts warn that the unrest in some countries in the region can be used as part of existing conflicts, such as the unrest in Sudan, for example, and that the continuation of these conflicts and the absence of agreements could worsen the crisis water and threaten food security too, and things can go as far as water wars.
Troubles in Sudan
Nader Noureddine, professor of water resources at Cairo University and strategic expert at the General Assembly of the United Nations Food Organization “FAO”, said in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia” that unrest and conflict can have an impact, even if not direct.
Disturbances in Sudan, for example, may not have a direct impact on the water security of Nile Basin countries because Sudan is not a source country affecting other countries, but rather a corridor country and does not does not contribute tangible shares of the total waters of the Nile Basin. the Nile.
However, the events unfolding there may give Ethiopia the opportunity to seize the event and achieve the fourth filling without discussions or agreement with Sudan and Egypt without appearing to the world as an exploitative country and filling the dam by a unilateral decision without consultation with the partners of the river.
Geology and water resources professor Abbas Sharqi agrees with him, who told Sky News Arabia in exclusive statements that the unrest in Sudan will affect all aspects of life in the region.
More than half of the Nile Basin countries are neighbors of Sudan, and they will be directly affected, including Ethiopia, which has two issues with Sudan, the Renaissance Dam and Sudan’s eastern borders.
It is expected that Ethiopia will take advantage of the Sudanese events to increase the fourth stock as much as possible, while blaming the failure of the resumption of negotiations on the Sudanese situation.
Ethiopia could occupy some of the disputed Sudanese lands and impose a policy of fait accompli in light of the concerns of the Sudanese military.
Source Conflicts
Source conflicts are among the threats to water security in the region, and according to Noureddine, there are discussions about conflicts that could threaten water security in the region.
These talks are aimed at solving the problems that have arisen, for example, between Iraq and Syria on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, because of the dams that Turkey has built on the Euphrates.
A similar problem also arose between Syria and Iraq on the one hand, and Iran on the other, because part of the Tigris and Euphrates belonged to Iran, which also built dams on these rivers, and agreements have been reached with Turkey, but Iran refuses talks.
There is also a problem between Egypt and Sudan on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other hand, and the basis of all these problems is that the sources of the rivers in the Arab countries are in countries not Arabs, hence the difficulty of negotiations with Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia.
So far, no wars have broken out in the region over water, but there is misuse of water and disagreements that can lead to water wars if agreements are not reached. not concluded.
Extreme water poverty can lead to these wars, and Egyptian President Mohamed Anwar Sadat said more than 50 years ago in his famous 1979 statement after the peace accord with Israel that the only thing that could force the ‘Egypt to take the war to the next stage is not politics. but water.
Therefore, Ethiopia’s ambitions in Nile water, for example, are clear and threaten national security. Therefore, if many negative aspects appear on Egypt and Sudan, water wars may break out, especially since Ethiopia intends to build other dams on the Blue Nile, which feeds the Nile with more than 60% of its resources.
Double crack
Shraki points out that the Arab world suffers from a major water problem due to its location and nature, and the problem is increasing with population growth, as the amount of water is constant and the population is increasing in addition to l increase in per capita consumption. .
Naturally, the conflicts bring a greater threat to water security in the region, especially in light of the problems with Turkey over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.
Egypt also has problems with Ethiopia because of the Renaissance dam and the threat to Egypt’s water share, just like Palestine, Jordan and Syria have very big problems with Israel, which controls the Golan because of the water, because the Golan is the source of a third of Israel’s water, and it also controls Palestinian groundwater, Palestinians cannot use groundwater without an Israeli permit .
The impact of these conflicts is also increasing in a country like Iraq, and although 50% of the water resources in Iraq come from within and the remaining 50% from abroad, they are suffering because of the conflict in Iraq. water with Turkey.
The impact of these conflicts is a double crisis, as it extends not only to water security but also to food security, a crisis that is exacerbated in the event of wars such as the war in Ukraine, or emergencies that affect food imports, as happened in the Corona period.
water poverty
Noureddine points out that water security in the region is under threat in light of growing challenges, as expectations indicate that in 2050 Arab countries will be below the water poverty line, and currently there are some countries Arabs below the extreme water poverty line with a balance of 500 cubic meters per person per year, at a time when the water poverty line is at 1000 cubic meters.
There are Arab countries where the share of water per capita is “zero”, and these countries depend on desalination, and other countries suffer from severe droughts due to the scarcity of rains, such as Tunisia.
The World Bank has warned of water scarcity in the Arab region and that the situation is getting worse, so there is a tendency to establish artificial rivers such as the Great River Project, which the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced that it would be established through connections to nearby heavy rain estuaries.
We now have to work with water scarcity and shortage in the Arab region, due to the high temperature and drought in the region, because 19 out of 22 countries suffer from water shortage.
The region urgently needs 25 billion cubic meters quickly to address water poverty.
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