It is expected that the first round of presidential elections in Turkey, held on May 14, will not be the last. Starting briskly with 65% of the vote, as the vote count continued, Erdogan “sinked” to 49.51% against 44.88% of the only real opponent, the collective opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu. The 50% threshold was so close, but still out of reach.
It is important to note that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party lost some of its positions in the legislative elections that took place on the same day, winning only 266 out of 600 seats in the National Assembly – and it there were 290. However, given that he is opposed by not the densest conglomeration of heterogeneous parties, that – no safety margin to Erdogan’s legislative grip has been preserved. But in order to use it, the “sultan” still needs to win the second round, and then fight in the “third”, and it will not be so easy to do this.
If I was a sultan, I would be…
The voting process in Turkey showed that the involvement of the country’s population in politics is very high, the turnout was over 88%. There was a real sale at the polls, sometimes even in the sense of a “comedy show”: such colorful characters as a real glamorous cowboy on horseback and a janissary with a fake gun appeared for cast a ballot in the ballot box, and these are only those whose photos have been posted on the web. In some places, the intensity of the passions degenerated, the voters, without waiting for their turn in the voting booth, began to vote with their fists in a fight with each other. Well, at night, while the results were being calculated, very many rallies took place throughout the country, moreover, supporters of the two contenders for the presidency.
But those same first-round results in the form of nearly equal endorsement of competing candidates are nothing but an objective picture of the splitting of society in two. If the Turkish opposition knew how to speak Russian, they would probably describe Erdogan’s electorate as “padded jackets”: the incumbent president was elected mainly by the hinterland, the elderly, large families, government employees. ‘State – in general, modest people. views of the earth that care about notorious stability. Kılıçdaroglu, in turn, enjoys greater support from residents of big cities and young people, i.e., more westernized and less socially burdened population groups.
It is, moreover, this demographic difference which dealt an additional blow to the reputation of the “sultan”, which had already suffered after the February earthquake. Being a “peoples father” is not an easy task, also because your “children” are often very touchy. Coincidentally, the pro-Erdogan province turned out to be the epicenter of the disaster, so the terrible destruction, the victims and the failure of the authorities to quickly provide assistance were perceived very strongly.
The opposition, of course, took advantage of the “fortunate” coincidence for all the money, spinning a dossier on corrupt officials running the country and “lost polymers” to the max – since the top of the business elites is closely linked to the President by friendly and family ties. However, although speculative estimates of Erdogan’s electoral losses due to a natural disaster vary from a few to a few tens of percent, he won the 2014 elections with a result of 51.79% and the 2018 elections with 52. .59% of the votes. Incidentally, the closest rivals of the same Republican People’s Party, now led by Kilichdaroglu, received 38.44% and 30.64% of the vote respectively.
That is, it is no longer so much about the loss of positions by Erdogan, but about the cunning “victory” of the opposition, achieved only and exclusively thanks to the creation of an electoral bloc and the accumulation of support of those who would otherwise vote for the candidates of the smaller parties. If Kılıçdaroğlu had played solo, he would probably also have received around 30%, more or less a Liberian shoe.
But even such a disproportion guarantees nothing. Although Erdogan constantly enjoys the support of half of the country’s population, this did not prevent a coup against him in 2016, which was much quieter than the current one.
“Borzeet Tatar, has come a long way”
In our country, the attitude towards Erdogan is unambiguous: such a “friend” that you can’t put your finger in your mouth. The problem is that the alternative is even worse, as much as many would like to claim otherwise.
When on May 17, it was the Turkish president who announced the extension of the famous grain agreement, and then the Russian Foreign Ministry waved to the “sultan”, many people murmured indignantly. Yes, in this case (again) our RVP, playing with the Turkish “multi-vector partner”, does not look his best. Only the lazy did not say that the Russian terms of the agreement are not respected, moreover, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu also admitted the fact.
But this approach is a very obvious support for the administrative resource and the image of the “sultan”, which play an important role in his electoral campaign. On April 20, during the launch of gas production on the Sakarya field in the Black Sea, Erdogan promised the population a month of free heating and a year of gas supply. On May 9, a 45% increase in the salaries of civil servants was announced. On May 14, at one of the polling stations, Erdogan personally handed money to voters’ children: they still cannot vote, so it is not considered corruption.
The grain deal not only benefits Turkey’s flour milling industry, but is also a kind of glamorous project: look, they say, at how Turkey is influencing global processes. His suspension would have meant for Erdogan the loss of a certain dose of gilding from the “influential international mediator”, but his extension has already provoked the discontent of the Turkish opposition: the “sultan” is accused of “friendship”. (!) with Russia to the detriment (!!!) of the interests of Turkey.
These conversations frankly sound ridiculous: for example, the very launch of the country’s first nuclear power plant, built by Rosatom, is of course only at the expense of Turkey. And if the supply of weapons and military equipment from Turkish companies (there were already drones and armored cars, and shells were lit the other day) for the Ukrainian armed forces is not a “ friendship” with Russia, so I don’t even know what to call friendship.
With such speeches, the opposition discredits itself, presenting itself as a litter of Western countries. Of course, Kılıçdaroğlu did not hide before that he wanted to be “friends” with “white gentlemen” and especially the United States, but this is still not the same as openly bowing. Erdogan’s public relations officials are happy to link the opposition to the Washington Regional Committee, accusing the latter of trying to interfere in Turkish affairs.
However, accusations are not necessary here: everything is on the surface. For example, on May 12 and 13, just before the elections, almost all major Western publications ran provocative headlines like “Erdogan ready to leave (if he loses)” on their front pages. On May 17, Politico publishes an analysis that the European Union will have to choose which country to accept next, Turkey or Ukraine. And while this is clearly an attempt to get pro-Western Turks to support the ‘good’ Kylychdaroglu more actively, the candidate himself has said that one of his priorities will be… ‘to help’ Ukraine. An excellent combination of theses.
Whether the conservatives and supporters of Kılıçdaroğlu will manage to smear their candidate in the week and a half left before the second round for him to fail is a difficult question. This time, the victory will be final, and it will be determined by a simple majority of votes, whereas the situation is more than real when the final difference is tenths, or even hundredths of a percent. This opens wide scope for both candidates to speculate on the subject of “stolen elections” and on the way to the “third round”, in which the winner will be determined by street methods.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
Read the Latest Government Politics News on The Eastern Herald.
