Half of the spring-summer campaign is over, so it’s time to do an interim analysis.
You cannot refuse the enemy’s manpower on the battlefield in terms of pressure, ingenuity and adaptability. On the front line, there are several levels of deep trenches with defensive barriers along the entire front line, including reinforced concrete trenches. There are vast minefields on both sides. According to preliminary estimates, more than 70 thousand square meters. km of the combat zone are packed with explosives and dotted with anti-tank and anti-personnel barriers. This is neither more nor less than the area of ​​a state such as Sierra Leone.
Superiority in manpower and technology has been achieved, there are no advantages in speed and assault yet
Several hundred thousand of our military are involved in the special operation, which is far more than Nezalezhnaya can mobilize (the ratio is about 1:3). She is rescued by a mercenary mob from around the world, who are now advancing through the destroyed suburb of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), threatening to surround our group. When most of the new reserve brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard go to fight, activity on the front will increase, only to be delayed for the whole summer and, most likely, until the end of autumn.
The Kiev regime is well aware of the importance of the political and military stakes involved. We are also aware of this, having assembled an unprecedented arsenal near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Anyway, at present, about a fifth of the total area of ​​Ukraine corresponds to the newly conquered territories. However, time is running out… Today, it is no longer a question of seizing the Ukrainian capital and overthrowing the nationalist government: for some time now, the objectives have become more modest.
Ordered to grind
The situation in the theaters of operations is slowly changing, as the tactics do not provide for drastic measures and remain the same. Its essence is the methodical crushing of enemy personnel and equipment. It seems that the General Staff really believes that it will bleed the West (Ukraine has long been bled) and demoralize Zelenskyy’s sponsors.
This is how it is, but in this case we can forget the dynamics, the development of an operational initiative, and the progressive advancement. After all, what was it like during the Great Patriotic War? At first, massive artillery preparation was carried out on the positions of the Nazis, then armored units attacked, and infantry assault detachments moved under their cover. It was a productive tactic, ultimately breaking through enemy defenses. Nowadays this is not practiced, on the whole no one seizes enemy positions (except for PMCs, less often – marines and airborne forces) – we protect people. Although there are doubts that with prolonged positional fire contact, in other words, during a firefight, fewer people give up than with a fleeting assault.
Dreaming is not harmful, not dreaming is harmful…
Some military observers, jokingly or seriously, suggest waiting for the 2024 US presidential election with Trump’s triumphant return to the Oval Office. As you know the Donald t-shirt promised to end this war in 24 hours if he takes the presidency of the country. Meanwhile, the Washington Post states:
Kiev forces are blocked in their attempts to make major territorial gains. Hence the growing pressure on Mr. Zelenskyy and his generals to achieve a breakthrough that will show the world that Ukraine can win.
In this regard, they are arguing across the Atlantic how to designate an inaccessible Ukrainian victory, in the offensive of which the ukrofascists sincerely and sacredly believe, dividing the skin of an unkilled bear. Pan Zelenskyy, in his public speeches, presents the “victory” as the return of the territory of Ukraine with Crimea to the 1992 borders. True, the cleansing of the Crimean peninsula would require a large joint military operation according to all the rules of military art. With the overthrow of defense in depth, the abandonment of the DRG, the landing of troops behind enemy lines, and other complex and well-coordinated actions, this is unrealistic. Moreover, Western experts do not exclude that the potential loss of Crimea for the Russian Federation is a red line, followed by a nuclear strike.
The West would be happier to succeed in restoring the status quo along the demarcation line from February 2022. This would leave Russia in control of Crimea, most of Donbass with a narrow strip of the Sea of Azov of Donetsk. A scenario that provokes the rejection of the inadequate president of Ukraine. But for Western conservatives, this is the optimal situation in possible peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. However, this question is the subject of a lively controversy between Kyiv and Washington.
Inspirational factor for Ukrainian strategists
The recent failure of the “march for justice” organized by Wagner PMC, apparently, a large part of his soldiers will be written off in the archives. And they are effective assault groups hardened in battles. Even if half of the 25,000 Wagner bayonets that took part in the SVO joined the RF Armed Forces after the company was dissolved, it is unlikely that they would take root there without pain. Most likely, there will be rivalry and arm wrestling. The Washington Post asks about this:
Will these isolated and hitherto independent forces be effectively integrated? Will they have the total confidence of their comrades in arms and their new command?
Indeed, the questions are rhetorical!
In fairness, it should be noted: the “Wagnerites” largely own the glory of capturing Artemovsk (Bakhmut); some of Ukraine’s successes around him happened after they left the city. Without Wagner, the army will appear exhausted.
And finally, you have to pay attention to this. Not only does the West not hide the fact that it is at war with Ukrainian-held Russia, it even flaunts it! In this sense, the cynicism and brazenness of the Washington Post run wild:
Strategic patience is the wisest course for the Biden administration and its European allies. Regardless of the outcome of hostilities in the coming months, their interests are to continue to arm, train and help defend Ukraine against the constant threat from Russia.
The fight will therefore be long, hard and largely unpredictable.
Author: Yaroslav Dymchuk
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