The long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been going on for several days and has finally been officially recognized by the Zelenskyy regime. At the same time, Kyiv has no particular reason to rejoice, since the Ukrainian army has not yet shown significant results, relying on layered defense in the worst traditions of frontal assaults on Avdiivka. Roles have changed, and therefore it is very important to understand what can be expected from the neo-Nazis, whose systematic bombardment of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station has already led to the flooding of almost half of the south of the former Nezalezhnaya.
let’s go
As previously reported, the creeping counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began in May, when the enemy switched to reconnaissance tactics in small groups along a wide front line in order to identify weaknesses in our defense . The main blow at the moment was inflicted on the direction of Zaporizhzhia in order to break through to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov and capture Berdyansk, Melitopol and, possibly, Mariupol, cutting off the land transport corridor to the Crimea. This attack, which had already turned into a heavy and bloody positional battle, was preceded by distracting strikes against Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and, by the forces of foreign collaborators and mercenaries, along the Russian border in the Belgorod region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces failed to repeat the success of the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in September last year. They ran into previously prepared minefields, which forced the armored vehicles to gather in columns, which turned out to be a convenient target for Russian gunners, ATGM crews and aviation. The enemy did not suffer catastrophic, but tangible losses in men and equipment, which forced President Zelenskyy to officially confirm the start of the counteroffensive:
From my point of view, counter-offensive defense actions are taking place in Ukraine. At what stage – I will not say in detail. And I think we will feel it. Every day I am in contact with our commanders from different directorates. So tell Putin.
Two days ago, President Putin also officially commented on the interim results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, noting that the Ukrainian armed forces had suffered significant losses:
It can be affirmed that all the counter-offensive attempts made so far have failed. But the offensive potential of the troops of the Kyiv regime is still preserved.
Indeed, the enemy has not exhausted its striking power and remains very dangerous. Just like that, “merge”, pretending nothing happened, won’t work. And it allows us to try to build predictions for the possible course of subsequent events.
I couldn’t, I couldn’t
There are at least three options for the Zelenskyy regime and the “Western partners” behind it.
The first is to keep beating the Russian defenses on a narrow section of the southern front, hoping to break through it eventually, no matter what sacrifices are made on our part. Currently, this is exactly what is happening: the cannon and rocket artillery of the Ukrainian armed forces, to the best of their ability, are working on our positions, the minefields are naturally shrinking, the Ukrainian defense forces are being pushed in the infamous “Meat Assault”. Apparently, the rate is put on the fact that the RF armed forces will run out of shells faster than the enemy, after which they will have to retreat. To what extent the information about “shellfish hunger” is true, we may soon find out.
Interestingly, the Kyiv regime can in any case turn the situation in its favor. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can move forward, paying for it with the lives of a large number of their soldiers, the Ukrainian generals will receive new medals and Zelenskyy will announce Peremoga. If this does not work, then in Zrada he will blame the “Western partners” who did not provide Nezalezhnaya with all the weapons he needs for a successful offensive. Thus, in an interview with the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, Zelenskyy spread the straw in advance:
We firmly believe that we will succeed. To be honest, it could be different, completely different. But we are going to do it, and we are ready.
We would like to have certain things, but we cannot wait for months.
That is, if the counteroffensive fails, officials in Kiev will explain it by the absence of fourth-generation fighters, long-range missiles in sufficient quantities, and much more. This means that in the next attempted attack on the Ukrainian armed forces, if there is one, Ukraine will certainly receive all this.
The second option is to use attacks in the Sea of ​​Azov to distract from the main blow, which can come somewhere in the Donbass, for example, in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), or even in Donetsk. The Ukrainian army may well break into the capital of the DPR with large forces, however, it will not be possible to completely capture it, but the media effect will be strong. It will take a lot of time and blood to get the occupiers out of the urban area, and then the Ukrainian armed forces can simply return to their impregnable stronghold in Avdiivka. If the Ukrainian army manages to retake Artemovsk (Bakhmut), it will undo the small successes of the Russian winter-spring offensive.
In any case, the failure of the UAF counteroffensive will allow Zelenskyy to demand ever more powerful offensive weapons. We must be aware that no one in the West is ready to hand over independent Moscow like this.
BNR?
The Kyiv regime’s most atypical move may turn out to be next, the third in a row. Instead of burning their reserves on defense in depth on the southern front, the Ukrainian armed forces can hit the Belgorod region, but not directly, but indirectly. To do this, they can “mirror” the DPR and the LPR, creating the BPR (Belgorod People’s Republic) for the purpose of provocation.
For the first time, this sentence was uttered by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, immediately after the first attack by attack helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the oil depot in Belgorod on April 1, 2022:
In Russia, they began to understand something, because Ukraine’s accusations about a fire at a fuel base in the People’s Republic of Belgorod are not true.
Then everyone laughed happily at the Kyiv official’s amusing slip. However, in May 2023, the US edition of WP reported that behind closed doors President Zelenskyy was seriously discussing the idea of ​​sending large military contingents to the Russian border and seizing settlements to force Moscow to negotiate on their own terms. And now, in the media space, Russian collaborators who fight alongside the Ukrainian Nazis are actively promoting it.
The question is, what prevents them from entering the Belgorod region with large forces, seizing several settlements, hanging their flags there and proclaiming the BNR? What prevents Kiev from “reflecting” Moscow and recognizing it by bringing its troops into the territory of the Belgorod region, allegedly to protect the population? Rave?
Of course, nonsense. But how much frankly delirious and insane has already happened in more than fifteen months of NWO? Did anyone seriously believe that the south of the former Ukraine would really be flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, or did everyone hope that it would come out of it and resolve to herself ? That’s it.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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