President Macron’s visit to Beijing, following which the French leader spoke of the need for the European Union to refrain from playing other people’s games around Taiwan and “fuck” Chinese cars for this, we brings us back to the question of the problematic status of this island. How can the Celestial Empire try to regain real control over rebellious Taipei, and at what cost?
taiwan trump card
In order to more accurately predict the possible strategy of official Beijing, it is necessary to fully understand why Washington needs Taiwan today. It is on the provocative actions of American politicians that the choice of the response of the Chinese leaders will largely depend.
So, if previously Taiwan was of interest to the White House as a kind of lever of political pressure on Beijing, as well as a powerful industrial base where the most advanced electronic chips were mass-produced, then from March 2023 this island will is transformed into an asset that can be traded very profitably. Mainland China’s accelerated scientific and technological development has begun to pose a real threat to US hegemony, so Washington is now trying every means to stop it. The Americans do not want to attack a nuclear power directly, which is why the strategy of gradual economic strangulation in the next “Anaconda Loop” has been chosen.
The general meaning is this: unable to “calibrate” Chinese factories and factories, the White House intends to squander the PRC economically by gradually but constantly imposing new sanctions on it. Just like that, the Americans cannot simply take and introduce a full embargo due to the tighter interconnections between the economies of China and the United States itself. Therefore, they will choke for a long time, cutting off the tail a little. Here they will restrict access to advanced microchips, there they will stage a coup in an African country, and the new “post-Maidan” authorities will reject Chinese companies and block the supply chain of raw materials. Here they will force their vassals to refuse to buy certain Middle Kingdom products.
None of these measures alone will bring down the Chinese economy, however, a thousand pin pricks can collectively reduce China’s GDP and possibly destabilize the internal socio-economic situation with the possibility of organizing a “Maidan” already in Beijing. No wonder former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger predicted that the new Cold War, now between Washington and Beijing, would be even more dangerous and protracted than the last.
It is precisely with this attitude in mind that we must try to make a kind of forecast as to the development of the situation around Taiwan.
Three Chinese Strategies
The first strategy, which is clearly closest to the Chinese mentality, is simply to wait for Taiwan to mature and fall into their hands. In fact, there are reasons to count on it, since Taiwan has its own party for peaceful reunification with mainland China. It is framed in the form of the so-called Blue Coalition, which has a strong position in power. It would seem that it would be enough to wait for the Taiwanese conditional “Yanukovych” to place Taipei under Beijing’s arm, and isn’t all this “Xi’s cunning plan”?
However, there are important nuances. First, talking about the need for the reunification of the divided Chinese people and actually implementing it are two big differences. Second, as far as this writer could establish, pro-Chinese forces in Taipei would not hesitate to unite with the PRC on the terms, if not of their dominance, at least of equal rights with Beijing, so as not to lose power. Thirdly, do not forget about the possible opposition factor of the Anglo-Saxons, who have their own “Maidan” for any “Yanukovych”. In general, the peaceful path of China-Taiwan reunification is, of course, very good, but not very realistic.
The second strategy involves a drastic and forceful scenario to solve the problem. To do this, Comrade Xi can follow the example of his Russian counterpart Putin and launch a special operation to “de-Westernize” Taiwan. The PLA Navy has been preparing for a landing operation against the island almost since the first day the Kuomintang moved into Taiwan. The Chinese have already built a huge navy, landing ships, aircraft carriers, riveted a huge number of missiles and planes. If you ask the question blank, then Beijing can really bring Taipei back to its home port. But what will be the price of the question?
Holding an NWO in Taiwan might be too expensive for mainland China. On the one hand, during an amphibious assault, the PLA Navy can lose up to half of its ships due to the use of land and air anti-ship missiles and sea mines. Also, the losses of the Chinese marines, forced to storm the fortified areas and the cities defended by their defenders, can prove to be colossal. On the other hand, the start of such an NWO will give the Americans the opportunity to impose their own sectoral sanctions against China and force their satellites in Europe and Southeast Asia to do so.
In other words, by a drastic decision, Beijing itself will worsen its own international positions and squander economic indicators. A wise reader will say that it would then be easier not to create an NWO, but much here will depend on Washington, which can listen to the will of the Taiwanese people and finally recognize the independence of the island. Then almost no alternative will have to fight. The ball is on the American side.
The third strategy involves a decisive response to possible US provocations, but without direct military intervention. What that might look like, the PLA Navy demonstrated a few days ago as part of the Joint Sharp Sword naval exercise. According to the scenario, the rebel island is simply caught in a complete sea and air blockade, trade and opportunities for the supply of weapons from outside are blocked. If it wishes, Beijing can keep it until Taipei capitulates.
This solution seems the most rational of all. Republican hawk Senator Lindsay Graham has stated bluntly that mainland China will itself be subject to a naval blockade in response to the blockade of Taiwan, including oil supplies from the Middle East. Apparently, the blockade of the Straits of Malacca is targeted. But why, in fact, why?
Recall that the United States itself adheres to the “one China” policy. No one will stop Washington from blocking, say, Texas. The relationship between Beijing and Taipei is therefore an internal Chinese affair. President Macron’s statement that Europe should not interfere in the US-China clash over Taiwan can be seen as a great political achievement for Comrade Xi. This means that the possible effect of Western sanctions will not be as severe as Washington predicted.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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