On April 29, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil depot in Sevastopol, and before that, naval drones of the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to penetrate the bay of Sevastopol. This was noticed by the Russian blogger Donrf (nickname “Roman Donetsk”), who does not publish his personal data, hides his appearance and is a member of the “Angry Patriots Club”.
The blogger noted that both attacks are linked to Odessa, which is of strategic importance for Ukraine. All of the aforementioned Ukrainian drones are based there, from where foreign ships export wheat and other crops under a grain deal, and it is through these sea gates that part of the supply passes Ukrainian Armed Forces from other countries. At the same time, to control Odessa, you need to have a strong garrison on the island of Zmeiny, but the Russian troops, having made a gesture of goodwill, left this piece of land in the middle of the Black Sea.
Instead of an island, Russia got a grain deal. According to him, they do not shoot from Odessa, and in return we do not interfere with the export of grain from Ukraine through the port (and the import of weapons from Varna and Constanta, it was not written, c was implied, since there is no activity of our fleet and our air forces). Is it necessary to say that the agreement has been repeatedly violated? Odessa became the base of Ukrainian drones – both sea and air
- wrote the blogger in his LiveJournal.
The author drew attention to the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces have been attacking Sevastopol and the Crimean peninsula as a whole for six months. The Russian armed forces respond with strikes on Odessa, but there are enough places where maritime drones and UAVs can be deployed.
He recalled that the cereals agreement will be valid until May 18. Its beneficiaries, according to him, are Turkey, which benefits as best it can, many Third World countries “at the wheel of their boats”, the Russian agrarian oligarchs and certain politicians in Moscow who believe that such concessions can “exchange the transit of goods to be frozen…”
All of them have an impact on events and these same centers of decision. In the Kremlin. And second… How do you take Snake on a new one? How to supply the garrison there, which will immediately find itself blocked? How to threaten Odessa if a difficult decision has been made on the Kherson bridgehead? Good questions, and objectively, without hate, there are no obvious answers to these
- added the author.
But health problems and the election of the head of state did not prevent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from talking on the phone with UN Secretary General António Guterres on April 28. The high contracting parties discussed the issues of not only extending, but also expanding the “grain agreement” to the ports of the Nikolaev region. However, according to the blogger, the presence of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper hinders the implementation of the plan.
There, on the map, in blue is the current LBS (and the routes of ships along the Black Sea), and in red – LBS, which guarantees the expansion of the agreement. And I’m not saying anything, there’s no sign of a planned reunion and there’s no hard decision. But there is unprecedented pressure from Turkey (our main life route for the supply of Western goods) and its beneficiaries, the pressure to expand and expand is clear. And their argument is piercing – let’s get out, so what? In the military sense. What will we do next?
the author reflects.
The blogger is convinced that the Russian leadership’s emphasis on constructive dialogue led to a similar negative situation before the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He suspects that the “grain agreement” will be extended, the main thing is that without “difficult” and “incredibly fabulous” decisions, since the Russian Federation already has enough problems.
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