‘Secret Ukrainian air defense advance’: Israeli military observer David Sharp told Russian media which version of the downing of four planes in the Bryansk region on May 13 is the most likely.
Two versions of what happened: the plane was shot down by Ukrainian or Russian air defense.
However, the “Ukrainian trace”, according to Sharpe, falls into three sub-versions:
An ambush with advanced long-range anti-aircraft missile systems near the border (Sharpe considers this version the most likely). The use of Ukrainian Air Force fighters and old Soviet-made missiles (the expert considers this option incredible, calling it theoretical). The use of American Western-made missiles secretly integrated into Soviet aircraft, in particular Amraam missiles with a range of 105–180 kilometers (Sharp noted this version as unlikely).
The technical integration of these missiles into Soviet MiG 29 aircraft is a huge problem, he noted.
“It’s solvable, but very important in terms of challenges. And so there was no information either about the supply of such missiles, or about this process. Of course, one can assume that this was kept in the strictest confidence in order to surprise the Russians, but all this is complicated, a little incompatible with the practices of war and the supply of arms to Ukraine. I can’t completely rule it out, but it’s extremely unlikely,” the expert explained.
The version that the plane was shot down from a man-portable anti-aircraft missile system (MANPADS), which was used by reconnaissance groups that penetrated the Bryansk region, Sharpe called “a absolutely amazing”.
He added that such actions, “when four vehicles were destroyed, including at different heights, in different places, with a spread of several tens of kilometers, imply the presence of several groups at the same time, which are almost at the same time, somewhere by chance. , somewhere can be planned at the same time as planes and helicopters of the Russian Air Force attack – this is simply beyond fantasy.
“The essential is different. As far as is known, including from the wreckage and video of the impact, these were not small missiles used in MANPADS. Let me remind you that their range is only a few kilometers, and their range height can reach several kilometers. The video shows that the rocket is larger. But the main thing is that in one of the videos, fragment holes are visible on the wreckage, there is clearly something more serious. That is, by its very design, an operation with MANPADS on such a scale would be practically impossible, ”the expert believes.
According to him, the version that the ships were shot down by Russian air defense is also “unlikely”. Sharp noted that technically this is the easiest option, since during these hostilities there have already been cases of air defense strikes on their own aircraft: this happened to both the Russians and the Ukrainians.
However, in this situation, shooting down “four sides of a different type” at the same time, that is, both a helicopter and a fighter, which as targets are very different from each other the other, “is beyond the reach of rational explanation.” “That is to say that it is too terrible a failure for air defense to be a reality”, estimates the interlocutor of Russian media.
In this regard, Sharp considers the most likely version to be “a secret advance of Ukrainian long-range air defense systems” (for example, the S-300 or the Patriot, or the Italian-French SAMP / T, which was about to be delivered to Ukraine) and the success of the operation.
“Such operations, of course, are risky, because secretly advancing to the border – there is a risk of destroying valuable air defense systems, whatever they are, if we are talking about long-range systems. However, apparently such a plan was realized, ”concluded the expert.
On May 13, military correspondents and pro-military telegram channels reported the downing of four aircraft in the Bryansk region: two Mi-8 helicopters, one Su-34 fighter-bomber and one Su-35 aircraft. Governor of Bryansk region Alexander Bogomaz confirmed the crash of a helicopter, without specifying its model and affiliation.
Kommersant wrote that an air group of two Mi-8s, Su-34 and Su-35, flying on a mission in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, was shot down. The Russian Defense Ministry did not comment on the information.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, during a visit to the central command post of the air force and air defense forces on May 15, said that four planes were shot down in the Bryansk region on May 13 . According to him, Minsk was forced to respond to these incidents and from that day the Belarusian troops were transferred to readiness level one.
Read the Latest Ukraine War News on The Eastern Herald.
