The Wall Street Journal reports that President Donald Trump is leaning toward resuming military action against Iran, but has not made a final decision. The report cites unnamed US officials. They describe options that range from strikes on nuclear and infrastructure sites, such as bridges, to operations against Iranian-held islands, according to Ynet’s account of the report.
The report puts the question of timing at the centre of the story. Trump said on October 8 that the United States would not attack Iran at any time before the November 3 midterm elections, citing “productive discussions” with Tehran, Reuters reported. On Thursday, the White House repeated that the United States will not resume attacks before the vote. It added that Trump “keeps all options on the table” to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, ABC News reported. Eastern Herald separately reported that Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu did not explain how his remark that the United States would “do this work” fits his Iran pledge.
Planning for the period after the election appears to be well advanced. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the United States and Israel have developed specific plans for a “short but intensive operation” in Iran, according to DW’s summary. The reported targets include nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and Iran’s missile and drone arsenal. Israeli sources told ABC News that any strikes would almost certainly come after the US election, because Trump does not want to unsettle oil markets in the campaign’s final days.
Some US officials argue against the option. They say a new round of strikes would only push energy prices higher, according to the Journal’s report as relayed by Ynet. Oil was already elevated in early October. Brent futures settled near $104.72 a barrel on October 9, according to the Journal. Eastern Herald has reported that Qatar warns the war’s energy shock has yet to peak, and that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called 3.7% inflation an energy supply shock and said gas prices by the new year “will depend on what happens with the Iran conflict.”
Iran has said it is prepared for another attack. Officials describe a broad response that would include strikes on US bases and Gulf energy facilities, DW reported. Gulf states have their own stake: foreign ministers meeting in Manama held Iran responsible for attacks on member states while demanding a Gulf seat in any US-Iran talks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday that Iran is preparing to destroy Israel. He spoke three days before Israel’s own election, Ynet reported.
The war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel started striking Iran. In mid-June, Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, but the two sides exchanged strikes again soon afterward. The conflict remains unresolved.
_(cropped)(2).jpg){kind=link}