NEW YORK — Silver fell for the second straight day on Monday as markets spent the first half of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting not debating whether the central bank would raise rates, but pricing in what its projections would say about the hikes still to come. XAG/USD traded near $63.00 per troy ounce in Monday’s session, down from a prior close of $64.50, as the dollar index climbed to 99.6 — a two-week high — and US 10-year Treasury yields approached the 5 percent threshold that has historically weighed on non-yielding metals.
The metal’s move extends a retreat from the $66.92 peak reached on September 8, when US-Iran strikes on Larak Island drove the biggest safe-haven surge of the month. That geopolitical premium has been unwinding steadily since, with the rate-hike narrative reasserting itself as the dominant force. Monday’s price near $63.00 represents a drop of more than five percent from the Iran-spike high over seven sessions — a direct transmission of the Fed’s tightening message into precious metal markets.
Silver’s September trajectory is a controlled disassembly of a premium the market was never sure it had fully earned. When the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes with a rate announcement on Tuesday, September 16, the 92 percent probability of a 25-basis-point hike on CME FedWatch makes the decision itself the least consequential part of the afternoon. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections — the updated dot plot — will carry more information than the rate decision for silver traders. If the dots signal a second hike in November, the dollar strengthens further and XAG/USD faces a test below $62.
Silver Price Today – XAG/USD Spot, September 15, 2026
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| XAG/USD (Sep 15, intraday) | ~$63.00/oz |
| Sep 14 Prior Close | $64.50/oz |
| Session Change | −$1.50 (−2.32%) |
| Intraday Range (Sep 15) | $62.34 – $64.50 |
| Sep 8 Peak (Iran spike) | $66.92/oz |
| Sep 7 Close | $65.90/oz |
| Decline from Sep 8 Peak | −$3.92 (−5.86%) |
| XAG/USD indicative spot price for September 15, 2026. [Source: FXStreet / Investing.com] | |
August CPI, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday September 12, showed core inflation posting its largest monthly gain in four months. That number arrived as the Saudi Arabia-led oil supply adjustment was already lifting Brent crude to four-month highs, adding a second inflation signal to the Fed’s dossier ahead of this meeting. The combination sealed the hike probability at 92 percent and, more importantly, raised the credible possibility of a November follow-on. September’s hike was bought into; November’s possibility is being sold.
The dollar’s move to 99.6 on the DXY tells the same story. A dollar index at that level reflects persistent buying into a Federal Reserve that is not done tightening even as the rest of the developed world begins to consider easing. That wedge between US policy and the trajectory of the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan provides a structural bid for the dollar and a structural headwind for dollar-priced commodities like silver.
COMEX Silver December 2026 Futures – September 15, 2026
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Contract | COMEX Silver December 2026 |
| Prior Close (Sep 12) | ~$65.30/oz |
| Sep 15 Intraday Level | ~$63.50/oz |
| Change | −$1.80 (−2.76%) |
| Premium to Spot | +$0.50 (+0.79%) |
| Lot Size | 5,000 troy oz |
| COMEX December 2026 silver futures, September 15, 2026. Indicative levels. [Source: CME Group] | |
10-Day XAG/USD Trend – September 15, 2026
| Date | XAG/USD | Daily Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 15 | ~$63.00 | −$1.50 | −2.32% |
| Sun, Sep 14 | $64.50 | −$0.50 | −0.77% |
| Sat, Sep 13 | Weekend | — | — |
| Fri, Sep 12 | ~$65.00 | −$1.50 | −2.26% |
| Thu, Sep 11 | ~$66.50 | +$2.50 | +3.91% |
| Wed, Sep 10 | ~$64.00 | −$1.90 | −2.88% |
| Tue, Sep 9 | ~$65.90 | Flat | — |
| Mon, Sep 8 | $66.92 | +$1.02 | +1.55% |
| Sun, Sep 7 | $65.90 | −$0.31 | −0.47% |
| Fri, Sep 5 | $66.21 | — | — |
| Daily change shown versus previous trading session. [Source: FXStreet / Investing.com / CME Group] | |||
The Fed’s press conference on Tuesday will be the session that matters for silver’s fourth-quarter direction. Chair Powell will face a straightforward question: is September a one-and-done, or the first of a pair? The dot plot will likely show median projections for one or two more hikes this year. A dot cluster implying November is active — even if not certain — would put XAG/USD under $62 before the week is out. A dot plot that signals September as the peak, with a clear hold in November, would trigger short-covering back toward $65–66 and a partial unwind of Monday’s losses.
US Macro Context – September 15, 2026
| Indicator | Value / Status |
|---|---|
| Fed Hike Probability (Sep 16 FOMC) | 92% (CME FedWatch) |
| August CPI (Core Monthly Gain) | Largest in 4 months (BLS, Sep 12) |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | ~4.97% (approaching 5%) |
| DXY Dollar Index (Sep 15) | 99.6 (2-week high) |
| August NFP (Released Sep 5) | +162,000 (beat — consensus ~57,000) |
| Saudi Oil Supply Adjustment | Brent crude at 4-month highs |
| FOMC Decision Date | Tuesday, September 16, 2026 |
| SEP Dot Plot Release | Tuesday, September 16, alongside decision |
| FOMC hike probability per CME FedWatch. CPI data from BLS. [Sources: Federal Reserve / CME Group / BLS] | |
The gold-silver ratio held near 65.9 on Monday, meaning it took roughly 65.9 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold at current prices. That ratio is in the middle of its 2026 range — silver outperformed gold during the August-September Iran spike but is now converging back toward its historical average as monetary headwinds from rising real yields weigh more heavily on silver than on gold’s deeper safe-haven function. Silver’s larger industrial demand base — semiconductors, solar panels, medical devices — gives it more sensitivity to any growth slowdown implied by continued Fed tightening. If the dot plot signals persistent high rates, that industrial demand channel faces more downward pressure than gold’s.
Against those short-term headwinds, XAG/USD at $63 still represents a gain of roughly 12 percent for the year. The January 2026 benchmark near $56 remains the appropriate floor comparison for anyone who bought at the start of the year. A September-to-November range of $60–66 would represent a contained correction within the broader 2026 metals rally rather than a structural reversal.
Silver Market Context – September 15, 2026
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| XAG/USD (Sep 15) | ~$63.00/oz |
| XAU/USD (Gold, Sep 15) | ~$4,150/oz |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~65.9 |
| XAG/USD YTD Change | +~12% |
| 52-Week Range | $52.00 – $66.92 |
| Sep 8 52-Week High (Iran spike) | $66.92/oz |
| Distance from 52-Week High | −5.86% |
| XAU/USD and ratio are approximate. 52-week high is the September 8 Iran-spike level. [Sources: FXStreet / Investing.com] | |
XAG/USD enters the FOMC announcement window with two plausible scenarios of roughly equal weight for a metal whose recent move has already done most of the pricing. A hike with a dovish statement — acknowledging that September may be the peak — could bring $65–66 back into view within 48 hours, erasing Monday’s loss and testing the upper boundary of the post-Iran range. A hike with a hawkish statement implying November would likely press XAG/USD toward $61–62 in the week ahead, with $60 as the next technical support if the dollar continues strengthening. The one outcome that currently carries less than 10 percent probability, a hold, would produce the sharpest rally — potentially back above $67 — but most silver market participants have positioned for the base case and will find out on Tuesday afternoon.
Frequently Asked Questions — Silver Price USA, September 15, 2026
What is the silver price today, September 15, 2026?
XAG/USD traded near $63.00 per troy ounce on September 15, 2026, down from a prior close of $64.50. The session range is $62.34 to $64.50. COMEX December silver futures traded near $63.50 per troy ounce.
Why is silver falling on FOMC Day 1?
Silver is under pressure because the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 FOMC meeting opens with 92 percent probability of a rate hike. A rate hike strengthens the US dollar and raises real interest rates, both of which reduce demand for non-yielding assets like silver. The dollar index rose to 99.6 on Monday, a two-week high, adding to the pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.
When does the FOMC announce its September 2026 rate decision?
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC announces its September 2026 rate decision on Tuesday, September 16, 2026, at approximately 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The decision will be accompanied by the Summary of Economic Projections and followed by a press conference from Chair Powell.
What is the Fed’s rate hike probability for September 2026?
CME FedWatch showed 92 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting as of the morning of September 15, 2026. That probability rose from approximately 60 percent at the start of the month after August NFP (+162,000 versus a ~57,000 consensus) and August CPI data came in hotter than expected.
How does the Fed dot plot affect silver prices?
The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections shows each committee member’s projected path for interest rates. A dot plot signalling additional hikes beyond September would raise real yields further and strengthen the dollar, both of which pressure XAG/USD lower. A dot plot showing September as the peak rate would trigger short-covering and likely a rally toward $65–66.
What is the gold-silver ratio today?
The gold-silver ratio was approximately 65.9 on September 15, 2026, meaning it took roughly 65.9 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. The ratio reflects gold’s stronger safe-haven demand relative to silver, whose industrial demand base adds sensitivity to growth and rate-cycle concerns.
What is the silver price outlook for September 16–19, 2026?
Silver’s near-term direction depends on Tuesday’s FOMC statement language and dot plot. A hike with a hawkish dot plot could push XAG/USD toward $61–62. A hike with a dovish signal could drive short-covering back toward $65–66. A surprise hold — priced at under 10 percent — would likely send XAG/USD above $67.
Closing Update
This article will be updated following Tuesday’s Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference on September 16, 2026.
