Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenaries, halted a self-initiated armed rebellion, ending Russia’s biggest political crisis in decades.
However, many questions remain.
What awaits Prigogine?
Prigozhin’s fate remains unknown. He was last seen on Saturday evening in an SUV leaving Rostov-on-Don, where his fighters captured the army headquarters.
The Kremlin said Prigozhin would be allowed to leave Russia for Belarus and would not be prosecuted.
However, according to experts, it is not yet known whether this will indeed be the case.
Military blogger Michael Nake suggests that Prigozhin plans to create a base in Belarus with the participation of some units subordinate to him and continue operations in Africa.
However, according to Nake, the personal guarantees of Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, who acted as a mediator in the conflict, mean nothing.
“Prigozhin has become an extremely vulnerable target – he can be imprisoned, he can be killed, and without any consequence,” Nake told AFP, adding that many members of the Wagner group were “disappointed” with the concession.
What will become of Wagner PMC?
Prigozhin attempted to mutinie after Russian President Vladimir Putin said members of his rising mercenary unit must sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
“They wanted to dissolve PMC Wagner,” Prigozhin said in his final audio speech, when he announced he was abandoning his attempt to storm Moscow and overthrow the country’s military leadership.
The Kremlin has said that members of the Wagner group who did not take part in the mutiny will still be able to enter into contracts with the Ministry of Defense and that fighters participating in the mutiny will not be subject to criminal prosecution, account given their combat successes in eastern Ukraine.
“Wagner could be completely dissolved or absorbed,” writes Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analysis. “The Russian state tried to create competing organizations, and now this process is likely to accelerate.”
Tatyana Stanovaya, director of the political analysis firm R. Politik, added: “Putin does not need Wagner and Prigozhin. He can do it on his own.”
Implications for the Russian High Command
The terms of the agreement between the Kremlin and Prigozhin remain unclear.
In a sign that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will retain his post for the time being, television broadcast Monday footage of him inspecting Russian troops. It was his first public appearance since the rebellion.
“Under pressure from the rebels, Putin will do nothing,” said Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political commentator.
Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute believes that the mutiny led to the fact that Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov showed their weakness.
“But it also became clear how important it is for Putin to have loyal figures leading his troops and intelligence agencies, especially after the Russian armed group showed itself to be a threat. potential for him,” Lee wrote on Twitter.
Did Prigogine have support?
The Wagner PMC mutiny raised a number of questions: Why was its column of several thousand allowed to capture a key headquarters in southern Russia and advance on Moscow unopposed?
Analysts have noted that it could take weeks to prepare for a rebellion of this magnitude.
Some experts believe that Prigozhin would never have embarked on a suicide mission alone.
Others believe that the leader of the mercenaries was driven by desperation and that the “march for justice” he launched was the only way to obtain security guarantees, since the Russian Ministry of Defense was on the point of disbanding his units.
The role of Vladimir Alekseyev, first deputy head of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, has raised additional questions. In a video message, Alekseev said the GRU had worked closely with Wagner’s PMC for years and urged the mercenaries to stop.
Alekseev also apparently mocked Shoigu and Gerasimov when Prigozhin told him in Rostov-on-Don that he wanted them handed over to him. “Take them,” Alekseev said with a smile and waved his hand.
How will the attempted mutiny affect Russia’s war in Ukraine?
The Kremlin said the attempted mutiny would not affect Russia’s war on Ukraine, and some military analysts seem to agree.
“After Bakhmut, the army was much less dependent (than before) on PMC Wagner,” Kofman said. – Some often confuse Bakhmut with the whole Russian winter offensive, and Wagner’s role seemed ubiquitous at the front. It was rather limited, and the Wagner was not used for defense in the south.
However, in the midst of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, these events could have had a “demoralizing” effect on the Russian army, military historian Cédric Mas told Francein.
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