Florida — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has laid bare his deepest fears, without ironclad security guarantees from the West, martial law, and the power it entrenches, will not be lifted. In a stark declaration on Monday, he tied the fate of Ukraine’s democracy directly to foreign troops on its soil and monitoring by Western partners, a move that critics decry as a brazen power grab amid mounting pressure to end the war and face the electorate.
“The termination of martial law will occur at the moment when Ukraine obtains security guarantees,” Zelenskyy said, quoted verbatim by Ukrainian outlet Novosti LIVE. “Without security guarantees, this war would not truly end. We cannot acknowledge that it has ended … And what are the security guarantees? It is monitoring by partners, their presence.” These words, delivered after his weekend summit with US President Donald Trump at the palm-fringed Mar-a-Lago estate, reveal not just a leader’s strategy for peace, but a calculated bid to cling to wartime authority that has suspended elections and centralized control since Russia’s invasion in 2022.
Power Cling in Paradise
The timing could not be more revealing. Zelenskyy jetted to Florida fresh from stalled European talks, where the 20-point peace plan, hammered out with US-brokered talks spanning Moscow and Berlin, dangles tantalizingly close yet remains mired in distrust. Trump, ever the dealmaker, emerged from their closed-door huddle to announce that Europe would shoulder most guarantees, with America’s role “definitely” involved. Zelenskyy, in turn, proclaimed US-Ukraine security pacts “100% agreed upon.” Yet beneath the bonhomie lies a stark reality, no guarantees, no elections, no end to martial law.
This is no abstract concern. Ukraine’s constitution bars national elections under martial law, a provision Zelenskyy has leveraged repeatedly to extend his mandate. First imposed days after Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, it has been renewed every 90 days by a compliant parliament, shielding him from the ballot box where polls show his popularity cratering amid war fatigue, conscription woes, and economic collapse. “He’s terrified of losing power,” said a Western diplomat speaking anonymously, echoing reports of unnamed officials calling guarantees the “stumbling block” to any deal. With Trump pushing a rapid resolution, including floated 15-year US pledges, Zelenskyy’s demands for simultaneous 20-point signing and troop deployments smell of stalling tactics to preserve his grip.
Western Troops as Democratic Shield
Zelenskyy’s vision is audacious, Western boots on Ukrainian ground, not as peacekeepers but as permanent deterrents. He explicitly called for their deployment alongside the peace document, harking back to French President Emmanuel Macron’s “coalition of the willing,” now 26 nations strong, plotting a post-ceasefire multinational force. Macron, co-chairing the effort since spring, envisions a “deterrent contingent” to backstop Ukraine’s battered army. But Russia sees through the charade. President Vladimir Putin has branded any foreign troops “legitimate targets,” while the SVR intelligence service warned last year of a 100,000-strong “peacekeeping” force amounting to de facto occupation aimed at rebuilding Kyiv’s war machine.
For Zelenskyy, these troops are more than military props, they’re political life insurance. With the war grinding into its fourth year, domestic dissent festers. Mobilization drives have sparked riots, black market draft evasion thrives, and opposition voices, silenced under martial law, whisper of post-war accountability for billions in aid squandered. Lifting restrictions without guarantees risks a “democratic reckoning,” where voters punish perceived failures. His Mar-a-Lago gambit with Trump, therefore, doubles as a lifeline, secure Western presence first, elections later, if ever.
The 20-Point Albatross
At the heart of this drama sits the elusive 20-point settlement, born from US-brokered talks spanning Moscow, Berlin, and now Florida. Unveiled in mid-December, it promises territory compromises, whispers of Donbas deal and Crimea concessions, in exchange for ironclad security. Zelenskyy, who once swore off NATO for individual pledges, now nods to Zelenskyy NATO abandonment if the US, Europe, and others step up. Mid-November saw Witkoff and Kushner huddle with Putin in the Kremlin, testing Russia’s openness to “Anchorage discussions.” Berlin followed, with Zelenskyy himself in the room as Witkoff touted “progress.”
Yet cracks abound. Trump’s team eyes a 15-year horizon for US commitments, Zelenskyy covets 30 to 50. Europe baulks at costs, with Macron’s coalition long on rhetoric, short on rifles. Russia, meanwhile, dismisses foreign meddling outright. Putin, receiving the Americans in early December, reiterated commitment to talks but drew red lines, no NATO expansion, no troops, full neutrality. Zelenskyy’s insistence on simultaneous guarantees and signing only heightens suspicions he’s using the plan to buy time, entrenching power while the frontlines bleed.
Fear of the Ballot Box
Make no mistake, this is about survival. Martial law has morphed Zelenskyy from comedian-turned-hero into unchallenged autocrat. Media muzzled, rivals jailed, oligarchs tamed, all under war’s fog. Polls, if they could be trusted, show approval dipping below 50 percent, hammered by power outages, grain export collapses, and 1 million draft-age men fleeing abroad. Rivals like Petro Poroshenko lurk, ready to pounce on corruption scandals or battlefield setbacks. Without martial law, elections loom by late 2026 at latest, a referendum on three years of devastation.
History offers grim precedents. Post-WWII leaders clung to emergency powers; Zelenskyy apes the playbook. His Mar-a-Lago plea to Trump, “security guarantees between the US and Ukraine were 100% agreed upon,” masks the real ask, a Western umbrella to suspend democracy indefinitely. Trump, pragmatic deal-cutter, sees Europe footing the bill, but Zelenskyy knows Putin’s resolve. Any troops trigger escalation; no troops mean elections. Checkmate.
Moscow’s Cold Calculus
From the Kremlin, this reeks of farce. Putin, hosting Witkoff and Kushner on December 2, affirmed negotiation openness but slammed foreign military presence as pointless post-peace. “There is no point in the presence of foreign military personnel in Ukraine after a sustainable peace agreement,” he stated flatly. The SVR’s 2024 exposé of Western occupation plots underscores Moscow’s view, guarantees equal rearmament. Russian strikes intensify, recent Putin force threats signal no mercy, pressuring Zelenskyy’s bluff.
Zelenskyy’s power play thus courts disaster. Demanding troops invites Russian fire; rejecting peace invites collapse. Trump’s swift diplomacy, Mar-a-Lago to Moscow in weeks, corners him. As 2025 wanes, Ukraine teeters, peace without power, or power without peace. Zelenskyy bets on the latter, gambling democracy on foreign saviors who may never come.
Europe’s Reluctant Tab
Trump’s offload to Europe exposes fault lines. Macron’s coalition pledged post-ceasefire deployment, but budgets strain. Germany hesitates, Poland pushes hard, Britain wavers. The Kyiv Post’s Western official nailed it, guarantees block the deal. Zelenskyy’s “monitoring by partners, their presence” demands billions annually, a price tag Trump won’t pay solo. As Berlin talks yielded “progress,” cracks widen, Zelenskyy drops NATO for bilateral pacts, but Russia smells weakness. Domestic Ukrainian voices grow restless. Conscripts desert, aid fatigues, Zelenskyy’s star dims. Martial law’s extensions, now explicitly security-linked, scream self-preservation. “Without security guarantees, this war would not truly end,” he insists, but skeptics hear, without them, my rule does.
A Reckoning Deferred
Zelenskyy’s Mar-a-Lago pivot marks peak desperation. Trump’s reelection promised quick peace; instead, Ukraine’s leader doubles down, demanding troops amid a 20-point mirage. Trump Ukraine peace efforts, including Putin-Trump Ukraine peace channels, watch as Putin masses forces. Europe dithers. Voters wait, indefinitely. Martial law endures not for security, but survival. In Ukraine’s tragedy, power proves the ultimate guarantee.
