NEW YORK — Silver hit sixty-five dollars an hour before Kevin Warsh walked to the podium. By the time the press conference ended, it was at $63.59. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on Tuesday, September 16, 2026, and that was exactly what the market had priced. What the market had not priced was the exit it would not be shown.
XAG/USD on September 16 opened near $64.00, climbed to a session high of $65.00 in the hours before the FOMC statement, then reversed sharply after Warsh’s press conference to close at $63.59 per troy ounce. Against September 15’s silver price today close of $63.00, the net daily change is a nominal +$0.59 (+0.9%). That number tells you almost nothing about the session. The intraday range of $1.60 tells you everything.
The key sentence from Warsh’s press conference was the one that was not a promise. Asked directly whether September’s hike would be the last, the chair cited incoming inflation data as the governing variable. US CPI is due Thursday, September 18. The next FOMC meeting is October 28–29, 2026. Silver’s next $5 move, in either direction, is most likely to arrive with Thursday’s print.
Silver Price Today – XAG/USD Spot – September 16, 2026
| Parameter | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Session Open | ~$64.00/oz | Pre-market positioning |
| Session High | $65.00/oz | Pre-FOMC decision peak |
| Session Low | ~$63.40/oz | Post-press conference sell-off |
| Close / Last | $63.59/oz | COMEX close, September 16 |
| Sep 15 Close | ~$63.00/oz | Pre-FOMC base |
| Day Change (vs close) | +$0.59 (+0.9%) | Intraday peak-to-close reversal: -$1.41 |
| XAG/USD spot from COMEX / Investing.com. Session high of $65.00 was a 6-day high before the FOMC press conference reversed the move. Source: Investing.com / Vantage Markets. September 16, 2026. | ||
The Federal Reserve’s decision raised the target range to 3.75–4.00%, the highest since 2008. The August nonfarm payrolls report, released September 5, added 162,000 jobs at roughly three times the consensus forecast of about 57,000, removing any cover for a pause and confirming the tightening bias that has weighed on silver through the second half of summer.
Warsh’s post-meeting statement described inflation progress as “incomplete.” The phrase repeated the language from July, before the August jobs data made a hike inevitable. Using it again after a hike signals that the bar for stopping is not the decision itself but the data that follows it. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly crossed 5 per cent in the hour after the decision, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool tracking the post-announcement rate path repricing. Non-yielding assets such as silver face structural headwinds at 5 per cent risk-free rates.
COMEX Silver December 2026 Futures – September 16
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Prior Close (Sep 15) | ~$63.20/oz |
| Session Open | ~$64.20/oz |
| Session Settle | ~$63.80/oz |
| Day Change | +$0.60 (+0.9%) |
| Intraday Range | $63.40 – $65.10/oz |
| Contract | December 2026 (most active) |
| COMEX Silver December 2026 futures data estimated based on spot and prior session price action. Futures price includes carry versus spot. Source: CME Group / Investing.com. | |
10-Day XAG/USD Silver Price Trend – September 16, 2026
| Date | XAG/USD | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Sep 16 | $63.59 | +$0.59 (+0.9%) |
| Mon, Sep 15 | $63.00 | -$1.50 (-2.3%) |
| Fri, Sep 12 | $64.50 | -$0.30 (-0.5%) |
| Thu, Sep 11 | $64.80 | +$1.00 (+1.6%) |
| Wed, Sep 10 | $63.80 | -$3.20 (-4.8%) |
| Tue, Sep 9 | $67.00 | +$0.08 (+0.1%) |
| Mon, Sep 8 | $66.92 | +$1.02 (+1.5%) |
| Fri, Sep 5 | $65.90 | -$0.31 (-0.5%) |
| Thu, Sep 4 | $66.21 | -$0.46 (-0.7%) |
| Wed, Sep 3 | $66.37 | — |
| XAG/USD COMEX closing prices. Daily change relative to prior trading session. Sep 16 note: intraday reversal was -$1.41 from session high of $65.00. Sources: Investing.com, Vantage Markets. | ||
The gold-silver ratio at 67.7 is a clean post-FOMC read on market preference between the two metals when rates rise. Gold’s decline on Tuesday was more measured. Silver’s industrial exposure gives it additional downside in a high-rate, slowing-growth environment: manufacturers consuming silver for electronics and solar panels become a less reliable demand source when capital costs rise. The 65.9 ratio at the September Iran-tensions peak was the series low. That environment has reversed. The Fed is now the dominant variable.
US Macro Context – September 16, 2026
| Indicator | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Aug NFP (Sep 5 release) | +162,000 | Beat; consensus ~57,000 |
| Fed Funds Rate (post-hike) | 3.75–4.00% | Sep 16, 2026 FOMC |
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | ~5.0% | Briefly above 5% post-decision |
| DXY Dollar Index (est.) | ~104.5 | Strengthened on hawkish press conference |
| US CPI (Sep 18, upcoming) | TBD | Key trigger for Oct 28–29 hike risk |
| Next FOMC Meeting | Oct 28–29, 2026 | Rate hike odds: data-dependent |
| Fed Funds target via Federal Reserve statement. NFP: Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 5 release. CPI: BLS, due September 18, 2026. See the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar for meeting schedule. DXY estimated. | ||
September 18 CPI is the clearest binary for silver in the near term. A print below 3.2 per cent revives the one-and-done narrative: the September hike was the cycle’s last, the dollar softens, real rates ease, and XAG/USD recovers toward $66–68 before the October meeting. A print above 3.5 per cent puts October 28–29 live as a hike meeting, extends dollar strength, and pushes XAG/USD toward $60–62. A middle reading, between 3.2 and 3.5 per cent, would most likely produce sideways price action and position squaring into month-end.
The silver price today as of September 7, the last pre-Iran-escalation, post-NFP session, was $65.90 per troy ounce. Tuesday’s $63.59 close is the marker for where the series stands after the Federal Reserve won a round against the geopolitical bid. Whether it is the last round depends on what CPI delivers Thursday, what Warsh says next, and whether the Hormuz situation remains stable.
Silver Market Context – September 16, 2026
| Indicator | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| XAG/USD Spot (Sep 16 close) | $63.59/oz | Post-FOMC settle |
| XAG/USD 2026 YTD Change | ~+52% | From ~$41.75/oz Jan 2026 baseline |
| XAG/USD 52-Week Range | $41.75 – $67.62 | Low: Jan 2026; High: Sep 3, 2026 |
| XAU/USD (Gold, Sep 16) | ~$4,306/oz | Declining alongside silver on hike day |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~67.7 | Silver underperforming gold post-hike |
| COMEX Dec Silver (settle) | ~$63.80/oz | Modest premium to spot |
| XAG/USD and XAU/USD from Investing.com / Vantage Markets. Gold/silver ratio: XAU/XAG. 52-week range based on COMEX close data. September 16, 2026. | ||
Frequently Asked Questions – Silver Price USA September 16, 2026
What is the silver price today, September 16, 2026?
XAG/USD closed at $63.59 per troy ounce on September 16, 2026, on COMEX. The session high was $65.00 before the Federal Reserve’s press conference; the post-announcement sell-off reversed those gains, closing the day barely above the September 15 close of $63.00.
Why did XAG/USD sell off on September 16?
The Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% as expected, but Chair Warsh declined to signal a pause. His reference to “incomplete” inflation progress and the upcoming September 18 CPI data as a governing variable shifted the market from a one-and-done scenario toward data-dependent further hikes possible. The result was a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news reversal from $65.00 to $63.59.
What did the Federal Reserve decide on September 16, 2026?
The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, the highest target since 2008. Chair Warsh described inflation progress as “incomplete” and did not rule out additional hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5 per cent in the hour after the decision.
What is the COMEX silver December futures price?
COMEX December 2026 silver futures settled at approximately $63.80 per troy ounce on September 16, a modest premium to spot reflecting standard carry. Prior close on September 15 was approximately $63.20.
What is the gold-silver ratio today?
The gold-silver ratio is approximately 67.7 on September 16, 2026, up from the 65.9 level during the September Iran Larak Island tensions. Silver is underperforming gold in the post-hike environment, reflecting a shift from safe-haven buying toward growth-concern selling.
What does the September 18 CPI print mean for silver?
A CPI print below 3.2 per cent supports the view that September’s hike was the final one, which would likely lift XAG/USD toward $66–68. A print above 3.5 per cent would put October 28–29 live as a hike meeting and push XAG/USD toward $60–62. The number is the single most important data point for silver this week.
What is the silver price outlook after the Fed hike?
Silver’s near-term range is approximately $60–68, depending on the CPI outcome and whether Warsh confirms a pause before October 28–29. If CPI is benign and a pause is signalled, the geopolitical premium from the Iran situation could partially return. If CPI is hot and October is live, silver faces the $60–62 range from earlier in the summer.
Closing Update
This article will be updated following the September 18, 2026 US CPI release and any Federal Reserve communication in the days ahead. Bookmark this page for the latest XAG/USD silver price today.
