The spring thaw has turned the “frozen” conflict on the front line in eastern Ukraine into an active phase. With the arrival of Western tanks, artillery and high-speed infantry fighting vehicles, Kiev prepares to break through the Russian defenses and its defenders to confront the enemy. Russian media spoke to experts on when and where to expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Armed forces collect weapons
Over the winter, Ukrainian NATO allies transferred dozens of German Leopard 2 heavy tanks and British Challenger 2 tanks to Kiev, along with depleted uranium core munitions; infantry fighting vehicles Bradley, Marder, Stryker, as well as self-propelled howitzers. In the future, the list of equipment will only grow. So, at the end of 2023, deliveries of American Abrams tanks are already planned, and the wheel is gradually turning with a story about the need to supply modern front-line fighters.
In fact, the first combat aircraft have already flown to Ukraine from Europe. So far we are talking about the old Soviet MiG-29s. So, the adviser to the air force command of the Ukrainian troops, Yuriy Ignat, said that at present the “air fist” of Ukraine already has three brigades of MiG-29 fighters . This corresponds to approximately 72 aircraft.
In addition, Kiev has two more Su-27 brigades (about 48 vehicles). Also in mid-April, Warsaw turned to Berlin with a request to transfer the remaining vehicles of this class, which were modified in Germany in the early 2000s.
SU-27Mike Mareen / Adobe Stock
However, Ignat claims that they are all old 4th generation Soviet fighters, who are morally and physically obsolete. And at the same time, he calls on the West to “do the second and third stages”, which involve the transfer of modern aircraft. First, the American F-16 fighters.
“Kiev needs them to try to gain air supremacy against the Russian Su-35s and Su-57s. In addition, aircraft are needed to hit Russian ships in the Black Sea with air-to-surface missiles, as well as to bomb naval bases in Crimea and Sevastopol,” said retired Colonel Yury, a military analyst and director of the Air Museum. Defense Forces, Knutov told Russian media.
However, he points out that the fighters who have been handed over to Kiev are too few to be spread over all sectors of the front. Most likely, they will be transferred to the areas where the most active hostilities and the counter-offensive that Ukraine promises its NATO partners in response to multi-billion dollar military assistance will take place.
Libkos/AP
According to Knutov, the Ukrainian army will go on the offensive at the end of April or May, when the ground dries out. Otherwise, the sixty-ton tanks will sink into the black soil and become stationary targets for Russian artillery and anti-tank guided missiles.
In this case, the expert considers three possible directions for the offensive. “North” – in the direction of Kremennaya and Svatovo, “Central” – in the direction of Bakhmut, in order to dislodge PMC “Wagner” and the airborne troops supporting him on the flanks, as well as “South” – in the Zaporizhzhia and of Kherson, in order to cut land communications with Crimea.
Let’s analyze each one in order.
“Center”
In the central direction, where fierce and bloody fighting is now taking place in the Bakhmut, Soledar and Maryinka regions, the Ukrainian armed forces have built a line of defense in depth. Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles will have to cross their own minefields under fire from Russian vehicles. In this regard, a breakthrough of the Russian defense “in the center” is less likely than from the “north” and “south”.
“Again, the final decisions are made by the Ukrainian military leadership. If Russian troops are driven out of Bakhmut, it will bring them image preferences and approval from the West. Artyomovsk does not bring a strategic turn during the hostilities to any of the parties, but in the field of information they are very important, ”says Knutov.
This opinion is shared by military expert, editor and business director of the Homeland Arsenal magazine Alexei Leonkov. He told Russian media that he considers the northern and southern directions as strategically important sectors of the front.
“North”
According to Leonkov, an offensive in the north along the Kremennaya-Svatovo line involves an advance through a wooded area. Ukrainian troops will be able to camouflage their equipment well in this area, however, it is possible to hit Russian positions here only with light strike groups, which will consist of French AMX-10 tanks, combat vehicles from American infantry M1 Bradley and German Marder. . Any heavy equipment like the German Leopard-2 and the British Challenger 2 with DU shells will turn into a clumsy target that will get bogged down in the forest belt.
At the same time, in the “north” it will be difficult to achieve strategic success and capture a large city with light tactical groups. Without the support of heavy equipment, artillery, and aircraft, troops will become bogged down in street fighting, suffer casualties, and have to fall back.
“South”
The key direction of the offensive, the two experts call the “south” and the advance towards Berdyansk with Melitopol.
Here is a flat area where 60-ton equipment can easily pass with aviation support under the cover of HIMARS missile systems with 155-mm artillery.
According to Leonkov, Kiev for many months transferred equipment in this direction and prepared the army for the offensive. Interception of the initiative in this area will allow Ukraine to cut off the land route to Crimea. And access to the Sea of Azov will provide the enemy with the opportunity to strike with long-range GMLRS missiles on the Crimean bridge, ships and naval bases on the peninsula.
In this regard, experts suggest that it is more reasonable to prepare to repel an attack in this area. In order to level the threat, the Russian Aerospace Forces, according to experts, should deploy additional front-line aviation units, prepare fortifications, equip positions and firing points and build up reserves to repel the upcoming offensive. .
According to experts, to combat NATO tanks, firing points are also needed, on which Kornet anti-tank systems should be placed, as well as upgraded T-72B3M, T-80BVM and T-90M Proryv-3 tanks .
In this regard, experts emphasize that Russia must be well prepared for the upcoming battles, which are entering a decisive phase. According to them, the situation is serious and it is now impossible to indulge in “capping”. The further development of the entire Ukrainian campaign depends on the outcome of the fighting in the coming months.
Nikolai Safonov
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