Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country, contradicting his claims of having stayed in Syria throughout an increasingly potent insurgency that has gained control of key loci in Damascus, marking a crucial shift in the protracted civil war in that country. This withdrawal marks the end of a regime that has ruled 50 years and opened a huge uncertainty of the fate of the future power in Syria.
Opposition forces have declared Homs freed, and many districts in Damascus freed, and the population is celebrating. In many regions, residents have celebrated, calling for freedom and pulling down images of Assad as they did at the original protests at the Civil war’s start in 2011. The United States has been closely watching the escalating situation and officials have expressed worry about a possible renewal of ISIS in the chaos. One rebel faction coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is at the forefront of coordinating these recent successful offensives against Assad’s military.
Lebanon and Jordan have also been on alert, closing their borders with Syria, due to fears of Assad’s regime losing grip on power. This aims to do both stemming the possible influx of refugees and the growing instability that the rebels advances will mean. While the Syrian government’s continued offensive against different rebel groups contradicts the claim that the Assad era is over, it does reflect a significant military effort to stem the tide of the oncoming opposition. The insurrectionary successes to date have had global consequences leading international stakeholders to reassess the rapidly changing security landscape in the region.
Assad’s step back now visible, the Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, has promoted the scheduling of free elections to conduct the country’s leadership. Some observers have voiced fears that potential unrest could also arise as various factions vie for supremacy in a society that could be transformed after an eventual fall of the Assad government. The geopolitical fallout from the renewed power struggles in Syria could significantly shift alliances throughout the Middle East, among them the interests of Iran and Russia, which have long supported Mr. Assad’s government.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime—once seen as a pillar of authoritarian rule—has altered the trajectory of the Syria civil war. The situation is fluid, as rebel groups consolidate their newly won control and regional players recalibrate their respective strategies, leaving the outlook for peace and for stability in Syria murky.
