ST. PETERSBURG — The head of the Russian-Saudi Business Council said Wednesday that bilateral trade between Russia and Saudi Arabia could reach $10 billion, more than three times its current level, once the two countries resolve the payment system frictions that have become the defining obstacle to deeper economic integration.
Tariq al-Qahtani, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, did not offer a timeline for that target. What he did offer was a candid admission that the financial plumbing — not the political will — is what is keeping the number where it is. “Today only money transfers make the process more complicated,” al-Qahtani said, noting that trade had nonetheless climbed from roughly $1 billion in 2020 to approximately $3 billion today.
That growth — tripling across a period when Western sanctions progressively cut Russia off from dollar-clearing networks — is the more striking data point. It suggests the two countries have found workarounds sufficient to sustain momentum, but not enough to move commodities, industrial goods, and tourism revenues at the scale both sides say they want.
Al-Qahtani identified three sectors as the likely engines of future expansion: natural resources, industrial production, and tourism. The formulation tracks closely with the bilateral agenda Saudi Arabia brought to St. Petersburg this week. The kingdom, which holds the status of guest of honor at SPIEF 2026 — a designation tied to the 100th anniversary of Russia-Saudi diplomatic relations — dispatched Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and a delegation of more than 200 officials, including the top management of Saudi Aramco, which occupies a 400-square-meter national pavilion at the Expoforum.
The Russian-Saudi Business Council’s session Wednesday was one of several formal trade meetings folded into the SPIEF 2026 program. Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry reported earlier this year that bilateral commerce reached $3.6 billion in the first eleven months of 2025, and Minister Anton Alikhanov said in February that the full-year figure was likely to top $4 billion — a number that would make 2025 the strongest year on record for the relationship.
Putin’s SPIEF plenary speech on Friday is the capstone of a forum that has drawn delegates from more than 100 countries, though the nature of the deals being struck has shifted decisively toward domestic Russian capital and BRICS-aligned partners. The Saudi presence is the most commercially significant exception — a Gulf partner still operating within the global dollar system, attempting to do business with a country largely excluded from it.
But the gap between $4 billion and $10 billion is not primarily a question of trade policy. It is a question of finance. Russia’s exclusion from SWIFT and the cascading restrictions on correspondent banking mean that even transactions involving parties not directly sanctioned can face delays, freezes, or outright refusal from intermediary banks. Saudi financial institutions, operating within a global banking system that remains heavily dollar-denominated, face their own set of pressures when routing payments toward Russian counterparties.
Both governments have signaled interest in moving more transactions through alternative channels — rubles, riyals, or currencies of third-country intermediaries. How far that effort has progressed in practice is not clear from the public record. Al-Qahtani did not specify which mechanisms the business council was pursuing.
The tourism dimension is less encumbered. Saudi tourist arrivals in Russia grew sharply last year, according to Russian officials, making the kingdom the second-largest source of inbound tourists after China. That flow does not depend on correspondent banking in the same way that industrial contracts do, and it has been climbing even as the payment frictions persist elsewhere in the relationship.
The centennial framing was prominent throughout the SPIEF Saudi programming. Russia and Saudi Arabia mark 100 years of diplomatic relations in 2026, a tie that was severed and later restored through several ruptures across the twentieth century. The current phase of the relationship, beginning roughly with Putin’s 2019 visit to Riyadh, has been driven more by energy market coordination through OPEC+ than by bilateral trade volumes. The $10 billion aspiration, if it is ever reached, would require a different engine — one built on manufactured goods, agriculture, and services rather than a shared interest in oil pricing.
Whether that engine can be built while the payment question remains unresolved is the question al-Qahtani’s statement left open. Moscow’s broader SPIEF agenda runs through June 6.
—Inputs from RIA Novosti, Sputnik.
