BUDAPEST — The Danube is running too low and too warm to keep Hungary’s main nuclear plant cooling properly, and the bill is now measured at as much as 137 million euros.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar put that figure before parliament faction leaders on Monday, framing it as a liberal estimate that the actual cost could prove lower once the Paks nuclear power plant returns to full operation. The precise tally, he said, depends on variables that remain unresolved: when all units resume generating electricity, what Hungary’s power consumption looks like at that moment, and what electricity market prices will be in coming days.
The trouble began last week, when a record drop in the Danube’s water level near Paks, in central Hungary, forced the plant’s operator to reduce output on two of its four reactor units, Euronews reported. Cooling systems at nuclear plants depend on rivers for heat exchange; below a certain water level and temperature threshold, the thermal load becomes too great. By Sunday, the situation had deteriorated to the point where Magyar was telling reporters the plant could stop producing power entirely before the end of the day.
By Monday, one turbine was still running, producing 240 megawatt-hours of electricity, with a window of perhaps two more days of operation depending on how the river level moves.
Hungary depends on the Paks nuclear plant for roughly half its domestic electricity generation. The plant, built during the Soviet era and still operating its VVER-440 reactors, is not scheduled to receive its planned expansion, Paks II, financed under a Russian state loan with Rosatom as contractor, for several years. In the interim, a capacity gap of this kind has immediate consequences for supply and budget.
Magyar said Hungary is making up the shortfall through electricity imports, primarily from Slovakia, with Ukraine sometimes serving as a transit country. Those purchases are handled by commercial traders at market prices, without direct government involvement.
The scale of the problem is partly a function of Hungary’s grid position: the country is a net electricity importer under normal conditions, and the Paks shutdown has accelerated both the volume and the cost of purchases. European electricity prices are elevated this summer due to the same heat conditions suppressing hydropower output across the continent.
Hungary declared its third and highest level of heat emergency across all of its territory on July 30 as temperatures climbed to record levels for an extended period. The European heat wave has strained energy systems from France to the Balkans, but the combination of nuclear plant dependence and a river-level constraint has given Hungary a particularly acute exposure.
The 50 billion forint estimate, approximately 137 million euros or $157 million, is Magyar’s working figure. It does not account for any additional market disruption if the situation extends beyond the current two-day operating window or if the recovery is slower than river-level projections suggest. What remains uncertain is the longer-term question: whether climate-driven shifts in summer river levels will place structural pressure on Paks operations for which neither the plant nor the government budget is currently designed to compensate.
