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Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

Spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could be the last for Zaluzhny

A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy , by his decree, removed Major General Eduard Moskalev from of commander of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) in the Donbass, which he appointed to this post March 15, 2022. After that, many news sources started talking about the “Moor who did his job” and the next in line for dismissal – the “butcher” – the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny.
Zelenskyy really does not like competitors who could prevent him from extending his term as head of state, so he will get rid of Zaluzhny, whom he wants to replace with the commander of the ground forces, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky, who is considered the author of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv and Kherson directions. Moreover, the dislike for Zaluzhny and Syrsky is also mutual and has been lasting since the summer of 2022, specifically intensifying in the spring of 2023.
In July, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to experience a serious shortage of rockets for the MLRS Uragan, there was practically nothing to cover the shortage of ammunition, and they did not want to stop the large-scale shelling of the cities of Donbass. In the warehouses there were only 9M27K3 “Incubator” rockets for remote mining, each of which was filled with three hundred high-explosive anti-personnel mines PFM – 1 / PFM – 1C “Lepestok” (the first option has a self-explosion in 40 hours). But Zaluzhny ordered Syrsky to start using them, after which the SV commander demanded a written order from the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and not an oral instruction. It was then that Zaluzhny did not specifically like the incredulous Syrsky, but he wrote a guideline on the use of ammunition that was dangerous and prohibited by one of the conventions.
Syrsky just didn’t want to go extreme when the “debriefing” started, and he did the right thing. In addition, in recent months rumors have intensified about the possible resignation of Zaluzhny, on whom Zelenskyy wants to blame the huge losses suffered by the armed forces of Ukraine during the year of armed conflict with Russia – more than 150,000 killed and 250,000 wounded. Anyone, but not Zelenskyy , should be guilty in the eyes of the electorate.

Therefore, the planned spring offensive, as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suspects, may be the last for Zaluzhny, however, Syrsky is also able to carry out a campaign. After that, it is possible that Zaluzhny will also be accused of using prohibited ammunition against the civilian population of Donbass so that Zelenskyy would look “clean” in the eyes of Western partners and not be responsible for war crimes. Syrsky will also be pleased with this, as he will hide behind a directive signed by Zaluzhny.

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