On March 5, regular elections to the country’s National Assembly (Riigikogu) were held in Estonia. Observers noted three recordings at a time according to the results of the vote. This time, a record number of Estonian citizens with the right to vote went to the polls, namely 615,009 people.
For the first time in 16 years, during which electronic voting took place in the country, it was preferred to the traditional method of depositing a paper ballot by a greater number of voters: 313,514 people against 301,495.
Finally, the highest number of votes cast for a candidate in the history of Estonian elections was recorded. 31,821 voters gave preference to the current Estonian Prime Minister Kae Kallas.
Leader of the Reform Party Kaya Kallas. March 6, 2023
The remaining results of the last election campaign were commented on by Estonian experts in an interview with a correspondent of the Russian service media.
Political scientist Peeter Taim, comparing previous elections in the Riigikogu with the current ones, made the following point: “If the reformists won the last parliamentary elections, but the distribution of mandates in Parliament made it possible to create a coalition without them, so this time it is not possible, because the reformists have a lot of voice and they can dictate their conditions. Therefore, they are offering up to four options, and it is clear that now there will be consultations with everyone. Each of these coalitions is entirely realistic, and the question will be in the details. They will negotiate, and strongly.
The expert pointed out that this time more voters took part in electronic voting than there were people who came to the polling stations. By the way, it was this circumstance that gave additional intrigue when counting the votes: at the beginning, when the results of the “paper” vote were counted, the right-wing conservative party EKRE confidently led the way. And it was only when the preferences of those who participated in electronic voting began to be taken into account that the Reform Party won.
On Monday morning, EKRE (Conservative People’s Party of Estonia) leader Martin Helme said he intended to challenge the electronic voting results in court.
Peeter Time mentioned that sociological surveys conducted before the election showed that the two main competitors in this campaign would face each other. “But it didn’t work out that way. As a result, the winner (“Reform Party”) obtained 31.2% of the vote and 37 mandates. That’s 3 terms more than last time. And EKRE, which was to have an almost equal result with the reformists or, in extreme cases, not much worse, obtained only 16.1% of the vote and 17 mandates, that is. 2 mandates less. This is not what the polls have shown, ”says the expert.
The National Assembly (Riigikogu) of Estonia in Tallinn (file photo)
The media interlocutor also noted the deterioration of the Center Party’s position. “The centrists themselves have declared that they are the only party in Estonia that protects the interests and rights of the Russian-speaking population. In the last parliamentary elections, they received 23% of the votes, but in these – only 15.3% and lost 10 seats in Parliament. It’s a very big defeat, and the Center Party even lost its stronghold – the city of Tallinn,” adds the Estonian political scientist.
Time notes that votes from “centrist” voters went to other parties, but it’s still unclear which ones.
In addition to the three parties mentioned by the expert, the social-liberal Estonia 200 party (13.3%), the Social Democratic Party (9.3%) and the centre-right Isamaa (Homeland) party received a barrier 5% to gain representation in the Riigikogu: it has 8.2% of the popular vote.Over the past twelve months, the cities of many EU countries have been decorated with the national flags of Ukraine. And they are hung not only by official institutions and departments, but also by ordinary citizens. But perhaps many yellow-blue flags expressing solidarity with the fighting Ukraine can be seen in the Baltic countries: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
Admittedly, this does not appeal to everyone.
The founder of EKRE, Mart Helme, made an outrageous claim that Ukrainian refugees have come to Estonia for prostitution and that many of them are infected with AIDS.
And the candidate of the United Left Party of Estonia Aivo Peterson, shortly before the elections, went to Donetsk occupied by Russian troops to show, as he said, “the other side of the war”. .
The question as to what the moods are in Estonia regarding the issue of accepting refugees from Ukraine and providing military assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was posed by media’s Russian Service correspondent to the editor of the opinion service of the Estonian newspaper newspaper Postimees Erkki Bahovski (Erkki Bahovski).
“I think the war factor had a huge impact on the victory of the reformists. Kaja Kallas has been very active in helping Ukraine, and Estonians have been welcomed by Ukrainian refugees, and therefore EKRE’s position has not worked,” he replied. According to Bahovski, Estonians do not see refugees as enemies, and the whole context of the war in Ukraine worked in favor of the Reform Party.
In these elections, the eastern regions of Estonia gave a large number of votes in favor of parties loyal to the Kremlin. How strong is “Ukraine fatigue” and the need to negotiate with Russia on Kremlin terms?
Family of refugees from Mariupol in Estonia. June 2022 (file photo)
The media interlocutor agrees that such a problem exists, as evidenced by the election results in Ida-Viru County, in the northeast of the country.
“The fact that Aivo Peterson received a lot of votes, even more than Jana Toom (a pro-Russian MEP from Estonia – AP) shows that people there live in the Russian information space, and something has to be done about it.
EKRE won the second seat in parliament and is far behind the Reform Party. They even lost two seats compared to the previous parliament, and the political standoff against Ukraine did not work.
It seems to me that one of the factors why Aivo Peterson and Mikhail Stalnukhin (a popular politician from the northeast who accused the Estonian authorities of “fascism” and “Nazism” due to the transfer of Soviet military monuments – AP) have received a lot of votes in Ida-Virumaa is that the mayor of Narva, Katri Raik, did not show up, and there were problems between her and the social democrats in the story of the dismantling of the tank Soviet Union in the summer of 2022. And that had an impact on the outcome of the elections, ”says the editor-in-chief of imees opinion service.
And when asked what the country’s authorities should do to avoid a possible increase in confrontation with the Russian-speaking population, especially in the east, Erkki Bahovski replied that there were quite radical proposals, for example to deprive those who have a Russian passport and a view of residence in Estonia.
“But it is against the law and against the Constitution, and in my opinion it is unrealistic. The government must be more active and make efforts to work with Ida-Virumaa and the people who live there. Politicians must not not forget Narva, Jõhve and Sillamäe, they need to talk about the problems that exist there, not just before the elections,” Bahovski said.
Andrey Kuzichkin, a political expert who received the passport of a citizen of the country last week and took part in the vote for the first time, belongs to the Russian-speaking residents of Estonia.
“I voted for the winning Reform Party (Eesti Reformierakond),” he said. And he reminded that there are two Russian-speaking enclaves in Estonia. This is Ida-Virumaa – the easternmost county, where Russian speakers make up about 70% with the main city of Narva (here their share reaches 90%) and half of Tallinn, where 45% are Russian-speaking residents . “It is there that the general political preferences of the Russian-speaking population are formed and where they can be followed and reliable results can be obtained. In the south, for example, less than 1% of Russian speakers live,” says Kuzichkin.
The fact that there was a drastic change in the election results after the calculation of data on electronic voting, the source of the “media” considers it quite understandable. “Here it is necessary to understand who is an EKRE voter and who is a reformist voter. These are voted for by liberals, young and middle-aged people, the middle class, entrepreneurs, computer scientists, innovators – the internet generation. Almost all of my friends voted on the Internet. I was probably the only one heading to the polls – I really wanted to vote myself in my first elections in Estonia. As for the voters of EKRE, they are generally people of conservative opinions, the middle older generation, inhabitants of rural areas. Of course, they know how to use the Internet, it is not for nothing that Estonia is called an “electronic state”. But they don’t trust Internet voting at all! They questioned people around the polling stations and I saw a very energetic old lady who said she didn’t trust online voting: “It’s a scam!”. It was clear that on the paper ballots, EKRE had completely chosen their electorate – everything they could – they got it that way. And when they started counting the electronic votes, the vast majority voted for the reformists,” says Kuzichkin.
He states that not only did political technologists in the Kremlin unequivocally interfere in these elections, but they could not help but intervene. “They started the project “Koos – Together”, found two obnoxious figures – Oleg Ivanov and Aivo Peterson – and tried to play this game. I don’t know what goals they set themselves, it was clear that he they were unlikely to enter parliament, nevertheless the campaign was very active and at least two people who spread stories from the Kremlin appeared in Estonia Aivo Peterson walked along Ida-Virumaa and received enough votes to enter parliament. But at the last second, his entry into the Riigikogu failed. The fact that the Kremlin interfered in the elections is obvious, but he failed,” the expert points out.
In the meantime, we learn that Aivo Peterson, candidate of the Riigikogu of the OLPE party, was arrested by the police as he crossed the Russian-Estonian border. This was reported by members of the United Left Party of Estonia. The Koos movement has found an attorney for Peterson who is with him.
