Secret military documents leaked on social media this week detailing US and NATO plans to bolster Ukraine’s military ahead of its counteroffensive. informed The New York Times. The leak is being investigated by the Pentagon.
According to military analysts, the published documents appear to have changed the data in some parts from their original format: “inflated estimates of the number of Ukrainians killed in the conflict and underestimated Russian servicemen who died”.
The NYT notes that classified documents have appeared on Twitter and Telegram. Washington is trying to remove them, but so far it has not been possible.
According to the newspaper, the published documents lack information on how, when and where Kiev plans to launch an offensive. They contain data on what the Ukrainian army might need for this campaign, starting March 1, which can indirectly give “hints” to the Russian side, the NYT notes. The documents, for example, mention the level of spending for HIMARS, which the Pentagon has not announced publicly.
In another document, as the newspaper notes, military units of Ukraine, their equipment and training schedule for January-April are indicated. Brief information was also released on 12 combat brigades, nine of which are said to be trained and armed by the United States and other alliance countries.
“The documents indicate that six of these nine brigades will be ready by March 31 and the others by April 30. According to analysts, the Ukrainian brigade has between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers,” writes the New York Times.
Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing for a spring counter-offensive. In particular, the head of the country’s Defense Ministry noted that a counteroffensive could take place in April and May, and also stressed that the attack would be carried out in several directions.
CNN, citing expert opinion, said the counteroffensive could begin simultaneously in the southern and eastern directions. An employee of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Kateryna Stepanenko, explained that it would be a mistake for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to focus on one direction. A one-off offensive to the east and south could complement each other and create additional logistical challenges for Russian troops, she said.
The Wall Street Journal previously wrote that the Ukrainian military’s spring counteroffensive could begin with missile strikes, followed by a tank attack backed by armored vehicles. According to the newspaper’s forecast, as part of the counteroffensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to cut off the land corridor that Russia has established along southeastern Ukraine, as well as to move from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov.
