April 7 New York Times (NYT) informed about the appearance on the network of secret American documents about the conflict in Ukraine, including about Kiev’s plans for a counteroffensive. Later, another US data set appeared on the web, containing information on the situation in various countries. By information According to US media, secret documents were released on various websites in March. How the documents could end up on the web, what they say about the American plans and how the “leak” can affect the course of the conflict – in the material of The Eastern Herald.
What documents are we talking about?
Photos of at least several dozen pages of classified Pentagon documents were first posted in early March on the Discord chat platform. The Washington Post (WP) and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The files appeared on the messenger’s channels – one channel was created by Minecraft players, the other was created by fans of the Filipino YouTube star. Then the files appeared on the 4Chan platform, after which they appeared on Telegram and Twitter, writes WP and bloggers analyzing open data.
Subsequently, the accounts that were used to “empty” American documents were deleted.
Some documents are marked NOFORN, which prohibits showing them to any stranger, other documents allowed transfer to Washington’s allies (the United States is part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance with Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom). Most documents are dated February-March 2023.
The photographs of the printed documents contain, among other things:
data on the work of the National Security Administration (NSA), the CIA, the Pentagon Intelligence Agency; reports for the Pentagon on the situation at the front in March 2023;
satellite imagery data used by the United States to track Russian troops;
timing of Western equipment deliveries to Ukraine;
Ukraine’s ammunition spending volumes; Ukrainian air defense location; U.S. and Allied reconnaissance aircraft schedules and routes in the Black Sea;
information on negotiations within the South Korean government on the sale of artillery ammunition to Kiev;
information that the leadership of the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad urged of their employees to participate in anti-government demonstrations (“Mossad” these data refuted );
By data online editions of The Daily Beast and the WSJ, more than 100 classified US documents could have leaked onto the web. In addition to documents on the conflict in Ukraine, the list published files – documents on the relations of the United States with the countries of the Middle East and Asia.
The American authorities did not deny the authenticity of the documents published on the Web. Although some of the photos have been altered, these documents really “leaked” from the US Department of Defense, son The Daily Beast assessed the situation by unnamed US officials.
“The Department of Defense is assessing the validity of photographed documents circulating on social media that appear to contain classified and highly classified material.” declared April 10 Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh.
According to her, several US departments are simultaneously analyzing what threat the published documents pose to the national security of the United States and its allies.
The US Department of Defense has opened an investigation into the leak of classified military documents, the NYT and WSJ . In parallel, the source of the “leaked” documents reveals the American Department of Justice, transmits Reuters.
If the documents found on the Web are authentic, it will be the largest “leak” from the United States since Edward Snowden, says former British intelligence officer Philip Ingram.
Snowden fled the US in 2013 after giving The Guardian and The Washington Post information about CIA and NSA surveillance of citizens and tapping the phones of world leaders. At home, he faces 30 years in prison for leaking classified information.
Who could be behind the publication of secret files
Andrew Harnik/AP
Version 1. Source inside US intelligence or inside the Pentagon
This version draws on a wide range of “filtered” material from around the web, including material on the Middle East and China, Remarks Reuters. Thus, it can be assumed that the documents were published by an American working in government structures, and not by an ally of the United States.
“Now the focus is on the version that this is a leak from the United States, because many of the documents were only in American hands,” said Michael Mulroy, a former senior official. of the Pentagon, to Reuters in an interview.
Version 2. The documents were released by the “agent” associated with Russia
US officials admit that an American with ties to Russia could be involved in the “drains”, writing Reuters.
It is difficult to trace the original source of the leak, as hundreds, if not thousands, of military and other government employees could have access to the released documents. said US NYT official. He added that over the past few days the Pentagon has taken additional steps to block the distribution of critical briefing materials.
How a leak could affect the course of hostilities in Ukraine
The published documents can be useful to the Russian army, Remarks NYT. As an example, the log shows the ammunition consumption rate for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. “The Pentagon has not publicly stated how quickly Ukrainian troops are using HIMARS munitions, but this information is in the documents,” the newspaper wrote.
The documents leaked on the web can also help Russian services determine how the United States collects information on Russian troops and restrict access to this data, informed NYT. For example, a published intelligence report claims that the CIA uses wiretaps to spy on discussions within the Russian Defense Ministry. The incident could also have a negative impact on the exchange of intelligence data between the United States and Ukraine due to fears of further leaks ahead of the preparation of the Ukrainian offensive, the publication said.
A leak of information will not be able to fundamentally change the plans of the Ukrainian troops, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for In-depth European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said in an interview with The Eastern Herald.
“The information directly disclosed is general in nature and does not contain specific plans. At the same time, the very fact of the release of such secret documents reveals huge problems with counterintelligence support in the Pentagon, US forces in Europe and in the US assistance system for Ukraine,” explained the expert.
The documents could have been published, including by the Russian secret services, Kashin believes. It follows that Russia has detailed information on US and Ukrainian military planning, he said. “It means that even losing in some tactical episodes, Russia is able to correctly assess the enemy’s plan and build the right strategy,” Kashin concluded.
According to the expert, the United States and Ukraine may not know how much information was obtained by Russian intelligence, because not all documents could have been made public. At the same time, it may already be too late to change the plans of the Ukrainian troops, so it is very likely that the offensive “will start according to the old scenario in any case”, Kashin believes.
If the documents were published on the web by the Russian side, it indicates Russia’s advantage in strategic intelligence. “The scale of the leaks suggests that Russia, while lagging behind in tactical intelligence and the use of satellites and electronic systems, has superiority in strategic intelligence,” Kashin said. The leaks may have been made to demoralize the United States and Ukraine, as well as provoke a series of lengthy trials and investigations that will disrupt their work, the expert believes.
The leaks will also affect US relations with other countries that support Ukraine, which will ultimately prove positive for Russian forces, Kashin said. “It will worsen relations and reduce mutual trust between the United States and its allies,” he stressed. Among other things, the leaks indicate major problems of discipline and information security in the American structures involved in the Ukrainian leadership, Kashin summarized.
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