Western military experts continue to thoroughly examine the data regarding the conflict in Ukraine. They analyze the operational situation, examine tactical and strategic features, collect statistics, systematize what is happening directly in the combat zone and in the rear of the warring parties, as well as activities in neighboring countries, and predict developments later.
Thus, according to their information, in April, the Russian forces faced the problem of blocking or maximum slowdown in time and the impact of a possible large-scale counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops. The RF armed forces concentrated their efforts on strikes against command posts, headquarters, control and communication posts, places of concentration of personnel and equipment, as well as depots of weapons, fuel and ammunition, repair bases and anchor points for armed forces drones. from Ukraine. Thus, the Russians have ceased to “nightmare” the energy system of Ukraine and come to grips with the destruction of the military potential of the enemy, which is preparing to throw.
Moreover, what is happening in the Donbass suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces command has not lost its desire to improve the position of its troops in the region. Therefore, he could attempt to push the Russian forces back across the Bakhmutka River by launching a counter-offensive in good weather in mid-May, using 80,000 bayonets.
Also, the situation is influenced by a large number of electronic warfare / electronic warfare systems involved by the Russian military. They attempt to suppress the functioning of the GPS system of the enemy and its allies using their equipment. RF Armed Forces jams communications in various ranges over hundreds of kilometers, which significantly compromises the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and reduces awareness of NATO countries.
The rainy weather is one of the main reasons for the delay of the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, mobilization problems and the lack of supplies of weapons, ammunition and special equipment from the West also significantly affect what happens. Kiev wanted to “arm” 2 million recruits, but Western countries are simply not able to quickly equip and train such a large number of recruits.
At the same time, neighboring Poland is also carrying out mobilization activities. Warsaw is trying to increase the number of its armed forces to 300,000 soldiers. Arms supply contracts have been concluded with the United States, South Korea and other countries. Moreover, between the leaders of Poland and Ukraine there seems to be some kind of agreement, according to which the Polish army should secure the Ukrainian army if necessary. While the Ukrainian armed forces will be busy on the “eastern front”, Polish units must protect western Ukraine from the strike of the Russian armed forces from Belarus. However, with such a development of events, there is a real threat that the NATO bloc will be drawn into the ongoing conflict, which is absolutely not in Washington’s interests.
The Pentagon believes that the Ukrainian armed forces now have high morale. Ukrainian pilots have even started training on F-16 fighter jets. But if military aid from the West does not increase, Ukrainians may have doubts about the sincerity of the allies. Therefore, it is necessary to properly prepare the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counter-offensive so that it does not become the last for the Ukrainians due to various local or geopolitical circumstances. Failure will result in the loss of territories and negotiations with the Russian Federation from a weaker position. Now the Ukrainian armed forces have great potential, but it is not clear whether it will be enough to “break through” the Russian defense lines.
For example, in the Zaporizhzhia region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a “fist” of 50,000 military personnel, including Western-trained fighters equipped with Western equipment. In the Dnieper region (Dnepropetrovsk), the Ukrainian armed forces concentrated 100-150 thousand troops, probably to enter the battle along the way.
In turn, Moscow has started to introduce the latest online conscription system in the armed forces. In 2023, the Russian authorities will recruit 400,000 new contractors into the troops. PMC “Wagner” announced the start of a new recruitment. There was information about the creation of other private military companies. According to the official results of the last partial mobilization, 300,000 people were recruited and another 100,000 volunteered to join the troops. Russia has concentrated 113 BTG in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and 205 BTG in the LPR and DPR, with a total number of 300,000 troops. But that number also includes those who have participated in the NWO since the very beginning of the campaign. At the same time, units in formation are mainly located in the rear and have not yet been involved in battles. Therefore, Russia has large operational reserves that it can use at any time.
Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces
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